Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bellport, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Stream of showers gradually working north and east through the region late this morning, and should push into much of eastern Long Island and southern CT thru early afternoon. Can't rule out a few embedded thunderstorms later today, mainly south and west of NYC, but activity should remain rather tame, and not anticipating any severe or hydro issues.

The upper level low that as been gradually approaching the area is finally becoming less defined over the Ohio Valley on satellite imagery and is progged to continue to open up. At the surface, a ridge extending from offshore high pressure is holding its ground over far eastern portions of our area. This ridge will continue to weaken today as broad surface low pressure slowly approaches from the southwest. These features will result in a prolonged easterly flow, with wet and cloudy conditions.

These heavier showers look to be right on the nose of a LLJ and associated with the strongest WAA. This batch should pivot up to our area as the LLJ shifts north towards us. Model soundings show very little elevated CAPE, so a rumble of thunder can not be ruled out with this activity starting late morning. Highest PoPs will be into the early afternoon, but chances of showers/isolated thunder continue all day. Overnight, the LLJ shifts as well as the higher instability, so the threat then will be greater for eastern LI and CT.

NBM was followed closely for temperatures, with 60s for highs and 50s for lows. NBM was also followed for Td given the wetter pattern.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper level trough axis moves through on Thursday and could spark some isolated to scattered pop-up convection although lift looks weak. Much of the mid and upper level profile looks similar to today(Wednesday), but with a warmer and more moist surface, MLCAPE values should reach 500-1000 J/kg. If anything does form, organized convection is expected as shear is very weak.

As previously mentioned, NBM was also followed for T and Td during the Short Term period. Lows will be similar to tonight(Wednesday night) and highs will be a bit warmer, low 70s. One other thing to note is the great model agreement of a very weak pressure gradient for Thursday night. Given this and multiple days of onshore flow, expecting more fog.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
No significant changes to the long term on this update and stuck close to the NBM.

Key Points:

* An unsettled weather regime likely continues through the upcoming weekend, potentially next Monday.

* It will not be a washout Friday and Saturday despite chances for showers (possibly a thunderstorm each afternoon and evening).

* Diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers remain possible Sunday and Monday afternoon.

* Temperatures will mainly run above normal through early next week.

A blocky synoptic pattern will continue through early next week.
Another upper low and associated trough over the Northern Plains will then gradually slide eastward towards the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday and then move across New England late this weekend. Surface low pressure over the Northern Plains on Friday will send a warm front across the area. Shortwave energy associated with the front is weak and dampened out by ridging over the eastern seaboard. Have largely capped PoPs off at chance with potential of showers mainly Friday afternoon and evening. Some CAPE may be available for a slight chance of thunder. Low pressure weakens as it moves towards the region this weekend due to the system becoming vertically stacked. The associated cold front will likely move across the region late Saturday into Saturday night. This will bring additional chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as probabilities for SBCAPE to exceed 500 J/kg are higher in the NBM. The highest probabilities for precip and thunder currently exist north and west of the NYC metro.

The lingering upper low and surface system should push offshore Sunday into early next week. Cyclonic flow and potential of a lingering cold pool aloft may support diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers Sunday and Monday afternoons. The upper low and trough may linger offshore next Tuesday with ridging building just to our west. Given a consensus of building heights aloft, have kept the forecast dry for next Tuesday and went slightly lower than the NBM PoPs.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80 away from the immediate coast, with low to middle 70s along the coast, Friday and Saturday. Westerly flow on Sunday should allow the entire area to reach the middle and upper 70s. Temperatures trend a bit cooler early next week, but still may remain above normal, especially on Monday.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure remains near the area terminals through the TAF period.

Rain along with MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected at all the area terminals. There may be intermittent improvement to VFR for a few hours, especially this morning.

Winds will be from the E-ESE around 15kt with some gusts 20-25kt at KLGA/KJFK/KISP/KBDR, then diminish this evening. As the winds diminish, LIFR conditions are likely to develop again tonight.

There is the slight chance of a tstm mainly during the afternoon hours today. Coverage still too vague to mention in TAF.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: IFR/LIFR in the morning, then MVFR in the afternoon with chance of showers and possibly a tstm.

Thursday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR/LIFR cond.

Friday: IFR/LIFR in the morning, then chance of MVFR in the afternoon/evening with slight chance of tstms.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and showers. Slight chance of tstms.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters and has been expanded to include the NY Harbor. The SCA for the NY Harbor and the ocean waters from Sandy Hook to Moriches Inlet goes through Thursday. The ocean waters from Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point starts a few hours later due to winds ramping up a bit slower. 5 to 6 ft waves should also be expected on the ocean waters.

Conditions will be below SCA levels by Thursday night, and remain so into the upcoming weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient over the waters.

HYDROLOGY
Although some isolated downpours are possible later today, there are no hydrologic concerns at this time. Total rainfall amounts will likely be between 0.50 and 1.00 inches for northeast NJ, NYC, the Lower Hudson Valley and western LI and CT. Farther east, rainfall amounts will be closer to 0.25 to 0.50 inches.

There are also no hydrologic concerns Thursday night through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ353-355.