Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cozad, NE

DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Tonight...

A narrow strand of low level stratus with an upper level overcast cloud deck moving in from the north covers parts of the area this afternoon with a cold core surface high pressure center situated just to the northeast. This high pressure center has assisted with the inward flux of cooler air today behind this morning's back door cold front. This feature mixed with broken to overcast skies have limited the regional highs this afternoon (a little lower than previously expected). A majority of the area, especially the central and eastern 2/3rd including the Tri-Cities, will stay below freezing for the remainder of the day with highs in the 20s (about 5-10 degrees colder from yesterday). Meanwhile, areas mainly west of HWY- 183 (closer to where the stalling cold front is in the process of transitioning to a stationary front) will see just slightly warmer highs (upper 20s to mid 30s). Winds will remain light and out of the south.

Lows tonight will fall into the the upper teens and maybe into the upper single digits for a few eastern areas (20-50%). Some patchy fog with a few areas of dense fog may also develop mainly south- southwest of the Tri-Cities (~60% confidence). Now that some short range models (HRRR) have backed off a little with coverage and regarding the tricky nature in general with assessing timing/placement around low-level stratus limits the confidence in the coverage/density of fog.

Aloft, a transition from a now-downstream trough to upstream ridge (seen best as a broad region of deformation on water vapor satellite imagery) exists along the mid to upper levels as the elongated trough pinches off into a cutoff low over the SW Pacific (a feature that will come back on Friday to influence the jet stream pattern).
This transition zone is generally filled with mid-level anticyclonic vorticity advection, associated with general subsidence (sinking air) that should keep the area precip free.

Tomorrow through Friday...

A warmup will start tomorrow as yesterday's stationary front transitions into a warm front, passing back over the areas and to the east with swiveling westerly surface winds (opening up some warm downslope flow). This warm up will continue through the day Thursday. Highs are forecast to peak in the mid 30s to upper 40s tomorrow and up into the low 40s to low 50s Thursday (5-15 degrees above the seasonal average). The warmest temperatures will naturally lie towards the west both days (similar orientation as today).

A diving upper level trough behind the midweek ridge will drop down into the area Friday, recombining with the previously cutoff southwest low. This feature will haul a load of cold Canadian Arctic air down with it. A cold front at the surface will kick start the cool down to follow into early next week. Southwest winds will shift north Friday morning with 15-25 MPH winds and gusts as high as 35 MPH (maybe even as high as 40 MPH (30-40% chance) for areas closer to the Nebraska sandhills Friday afternoon. Similar winds will likely redevelop again on Saturday afternoon. The chance for light snow Friday has decreased in probability over the last 24 hours, now keeping the rest of the forecast period basically dry (<15%). Some flurries could meander into our some western parts (mainly areas along and west of HWY 183), however the set up is not looking too favorable at the moment.

Saturday and Beyond...

A sharp 10 to 20 degree drop in temperatures Saturday (highs in low to mid 20s) will fall 5-15 degrees further Sunday, carrying over into Monday (highs in 10s). Northerly winds will allow a cold air mass underneath a broad surface high to seep in.

The nights of near 0 and below overnight lows will begin overnight Saturday / Sunday morning. The coldest part of the airmass will be centered towards the west-northwest. Wind chills will likely fall below 0 degrees areawide with the most dangerous (-15 to -25 degree)
wind chills up closer to the Northwestern areas.

The coldest days will be Sunday and Monday when highs are expected to fail to break out of the teens (maybe even the single digits for areas along and north of Valley/Greeley counties). Overnight lows both nights are expected to mainly fall a few to 5 degrees bellow 0 with lows as low as below 10 for a few northwest areas Sunday night into Monday morning. Dangerous winds chills both nights (SUN/MON)
are also forecast to range between mainly -15 to -25 degrees, with eventual Cold Weather Advisory issuance likely if trends hold. The forecast remains somewhat blurry after Monday, though temperatures should rebound as soon as Tuesday back to the 20s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 528 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Main concern will be with the potential for low ceilings/fog as we get through the overnight hours. Thinking that IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible after midnight into the early morning hours...but there is still some uncertainty with whether its driven by ceilings/stratus, fog, or potentially both. Confidence is low-medium. Conditions are expected to improve around mid- morning Wed. Winds start out this period from the southeast, but will be turning more southerly, then southwesterly overnight...then more westerly by around midday and through the afternoon hours Wed.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.