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FXUS63 KGID 032325 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 525 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Key Messages:

* Quick moving disturbance will move out of the area by this evening, bringing an end to any remaining precipitation and calmer winds.

* Dry and warmer for most of the upcoming work week with record to near-record high temperatures possible Wednesday and Thursday.

* Breezy generally westerly winds will move through Monday. This and the warmer temperatures will bring the potential for near critical fire weather conditions over portions of north central Kansas Monday.

* Cooler and potentially wetter weather possible next weekend.

This evening/tonight...

A disturbance has been bringing gusty northwesterly winds and some light precipitation to the forecast area this afternoon, with some areas seeing gusts approaching 40 mph. If any precipitation has been falling as appears on radar, it certainly has not been much. By this evening, both gusty winds will diminish and any lingering precipitation will move off to the east. Clouds will clear out and overnight lows will drop back down into the 20s.

Monday...

In the morning, winds will be generally southwesterly at 5-10 mph under mostly clear skies. During the afternoon and evening as another disturbance approaches from the north, winds will veer to the northwest and become gusty again, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible, mainly north of Interstate 80. There may be just enough moisture for a few sprinkles during the afternoon, again mainly north of Interstate 80. High temperatures will be in the 50s, and the gusty winds and drier air (especially along and south of the NE-KS state line) will lead to the potential for near-critical fire weather conditions across portions of north central Kansas.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Starting off here, this time period is expected to remain dry.
Tuesday, northerly flow aloft will help keep temperatures down some, even ahead of a broad ridge, and highs will be in the 40s to low 50s. As a very broad upper ridge moves over the Plains and impacts our weather Wednesday and Thursday, highs will increase significantly. Most record highs should be out of reach (the exception perhaps being Grand Island's 65 on December 7), but they will still be around 20 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 50s and 60s Wednesday and in the 60s Thursday.

Friday and next weekend...

Thursday night and Friday, models are indicating an upper trough and embedded shortwaves moving across the region. This will cool the area down some, but with deterministic model guidance indicating a surface high sliding into place, highs should still be in the 50s across the forecast area and likely dry. Over the weekend there is more uncertainty, especially regarding precipitation. Latest model guidance has been trending drier with EPS ensemble guidance showing only a 10% chance or less chance of rainfall exceeding a quarter inch of rain, with the GEFS being more optimistic, but not by much...currently Saturday looks to be the best shot at this. Of somewhat higher confidence will be the cooler temperatures behind the trough, with highs expected to be in the 40s next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 514 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

VFR conditions expected through this period. Skies continue to clear this evening, and winds decrease as they turn to the west by early Monday morning.

Winds increase and turn to the northwest again Monday afternoon, and some midlevel clouds (ceilings around 7kft) will move into the area.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.

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Grand Island, NE,