Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farnam, NE

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A rather complicated scenario today into tonight regarding precipitation chances. As a shortwave approaches the area, a warm front sharpens near the Nebraska/Kansas border this morning and attempts to lift northward into southern Nebraska. All indications are that it will not make it all the way to I-80, and winds will remain east to northeast to the north of the front. A narrow corridor of pooling moisture is noted just north of the front.
Several of the CAMs fire at least some isolated convection in this area around the I-80 corridor late this afternoon. This evening as large scale large scale lift overspreads the area with the approaching wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms should become more numerous to the north of I-80 within an area of strong mid- level FGEN developing from southwest to northeast across the area north of the frontal boundary. MUCAPE/elevated values are on the order of 300-600 J/KG across the southern Sandhills and into southwest Nebraska through this evening. Shear is strong, and could see an isolated strong storm or two that produce small hail.

Scattered showers linger though the morning hours Wednesday with the threat over by afternoon. A surface trough will mix eastward with humidity values falling rapidly by afternoon. Fire weather concerns appear they will be elevated to perhaps near-critical for areas west of Highway 83 and especially Highway 61. At this time it does not appear that winds will be strong enough to warrant a Fire Weather Watch, but this will have to be monitored closely.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A strong upper level trough of low pressure will dive southeast from eastern Washington into southern Idaho Thursday. East of this trough, a deepening surface trough of low pressure will develop from eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado. East of this feature, gusty southerly and south-southwesterly winds will develop by Thursday afternoon. Decent low level warm air advection will push highs into the lower 80s across the forecast area. Windy conditions will develop with a high likelihood of wind gusts exceeding 25 MPH per the latest NBM ensemble probabilities. Forecast soundings indicate even higher gust potential Thursday afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and highs in the 80s will lead to near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the area Thursday afternoon. The kicker here will be where the cutoff in low level moisture return resides. The latest EC soln, lifts a tongue of low level moisture into south central and eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon with a dryline on the western periphery of this moisture tongue. Looking at the latest deterministic NAM12 soln tonight has this feature at 21z Thursday roughly along a line from eastern Frontier county, north-northeast into eastern Custer, then southeastern Holt county. With this location, min RH may be too high for a RFW. West of this line, there appears to be a high likelihood of RFW conditions for most of the forecast area Thursday afternoon. ATTM will continue to highlight this critical fire weather threat in the HWO. The upper level trough will move southeast into northeastern Utah Thursday night, forcing a strong cold front through the forecast area. This feature should pass through the forecast area by 12z Friday. Behind the front, highs Friday will range from the lower 40s in the northwest, to lower 60s in the east. Forcing for precipitation will be most favorable across northwestern portions of the forecast area Friday. This forcing will shift east Friday night into Saturday morning. With lows expected to reach into the 20s Friday night, snow will become the predominant ptype Friday night. Precipitation amounts appear light with this system across the forecast area as NBM ensemble probabilities are generally in the 20 to 30% range for exceedance of 0.10". Even if a tenth of an inch were achieved, any snow accumulations would be under an inch at best. Upper level forcing will quickly shift east of the forecast area Saturday morning. In its wake, gusty northerly winds and very dry boundary layer air will push into the area by Saturday afternoon. Even with forecast highs in the 50s the strong northerly winds and minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent may lead to near critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Across the western forecast area, the NBM initialized with some isolated pops Saturday afternoon. Looking closer, very steep lapse rates and negative, elevated LI's are present in the western half of the FA (per GFS soln). That being said, decided to leave pops for Saturday afternoon in this forecast package.
Ridging will build into the Intermountain West Sunday forcing warmer air east onto the high plains. Highs Sunday will reach into the 60s to lower 70s with 70s to lower 80s for Monday. Dry conditions are expected through Monday with the next possible chance of precipitation late Tuesday/Wednesday-April 21, 22.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Some stronger northeast winds with gusts up to 25 knots are expected this afternoon across portions of southwest Nebraska. Otherwise, the main aviation concern will be the potential for some scattered rain showers across much of the region into tonight. Isolated showers will begin to impact portions of northern Nebraska and into the Panhandle by mid to late afternoon. Shower activity will slowly spread eastward into the evening and overnight hours. Main threats with these storms will be some minor visibility restrictions, small hail, and briefly gusty winds. Conditions gradually improve around sunrise Wednesday and through the morning hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.