Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farnam, NE
December 4, 2023 8:02 AM CST (14:02 UTC)
Sunrise 7:50AM Sunset 5:16PM Moonrise 12:00AM Moonset 1:13PM
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 041211 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 606 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Flurries or sprinkles are possible today. The result of a cold front which will move south through the region and produce windy conditions with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Forecast confidence is 70 percent.
- High temperatures in the 60s appear likely Wednesday and Thursday.
Probability of occurrence 80 percent.
- Windy conditions may develop Thursday leading to fire weather concerns during the peak afternoon hours. Probability of occurrence 50 percent.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
A cold front across MT this morning will move south through wrn and ncntl Nebraska later this morning and throughout the afternoon. The models are in very good agreement suggesting widespread cloud cover and sprinkles with the passage of the front. There is also good agreement for sfc winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. The blended forecast came in a bit stronger with winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph. The stronger winds will most likely occur across ncntl and nwrn Nebraska; closer to the the upper level support in the form of a PV 1.5 anomaly and a belt of 35-45 kt h850-800mb winds.
None of the models show measureable rainfall with the front which is surprising considering h850-300mb will rise to around 70 percent and PWAT will increase to 0.4-0.5 inches. BUFkit suggested dry air below 700mb will prevent measureable rainfall so the lack of low level focus for moisture pooling is holding things back.
A developing warm front Tuesday is the basis for highs in the 50s across far wrn Nebraska with cloud cover and cooler air holding highs to the 40s along and east of highway 83 into ncntl Nebraska.
Once again, the models are dry with the warm front and this is unusual given the PWAT near 0.6 inches. The lack of low level focus is probably the cause for the models showing no rain.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
The big warm up continues on track for Wednesday and Thursday with h850mb temperatures warming to 15C; near 5C at h700mb.
850-300mb RH will drop to 15-25 percent which is very dry suggesting clear skies. The NAM and ECM show this wedge of dry air advancing east across the cntl Rockies Wednesday and still in place through noon Thursday.
The latest development in the models is that Thursday could be a windy day with west winds increasing to 25 to 35 mph with a shift to the northwest during the afternoon. The wind speed prediction is supported by the models showing 500m AGL winds of that speed in knots. The wind shift represents the leading edge of cooler air and is supported by sfc low pressure across ern ND. The official forecast is for slightly lower wind speeds and later forecasts will mark up speeds if warranted.
It is somewhat difficult to predict fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. The heating cycle is very short, just a few hours, and the prospect of reaching Red Flag criteria is therefore uncertain.
Nonetheless, it appears fire weather concerns are increasing and later forecasts will get a better fix on this potential weather event.
The models continue to show about a 20C drop in temperatures at h850mb between Thursday night and Saturday morning. The Pacific front will be quite strong and the latest POP forecast has dropped chances to 20 percent or less Friday with little or no chance Saturday. The reason for this is likely the push of west winds Thursday will sweep wrn and ncntl Nebraska clear of moisture with the better focus and dynamics across areas near and east of the lower Missouri basin. Basically, the forecast for the next 7 days is for little or no measureable rain or snow.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 606 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Gusty northwest winds are expected again today. Gusts of 25-30kt are likely this afternoon all areas and continuing into this evening across north central Neb. Removed the showers from area TAFs as any activity should be very isolated. VFR conditions are expected to be the rule across all of western and north central Neb. through tonight.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 606 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Flurries or sprinkles are possible today. The result of a cold front which will move south through the region and produce windy conditions with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Forecast confidence is 70 percent.
- High temperatures in the 60s appear likely Wednesday and Thursday.
Probability of occurrence 80 percent.
- Windy conditions may develop Thursday leading to fire weather concerns during the peak afternoon hours. Probability of occurrence 50 percent.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
A cold front across MT this morning will move south through wrn and ncntl Nebraska later this morning and throughout the afternoon. The models are in very good agreement suggesting widespread cloud cover and sprinkles with the passage of the front. There is also good agreement for sfc winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. The blended forecast came in a bit stronger with winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph. The stronger winds will most likely occur across ncntl and nwrn Nebraska; closer to the the upper level support in the form of a PV 1.5 anomaly and a belt of 35-45 kt h850-800mb winds.
None of the models show measureable rainfall with the front which is surprising considering h850-300mb will rise to around 70 percent and PWAT will increase to 0.4-0.5 inches. BUFkit suggested dry air below 700mb will prevent measureable rainfall so the lack of low level focus for moisture pooling is holding things back.
A developing warm front Tuesday is the basis for highs in the 50s across far wrn Nebraska with cloud cover and cooler air holding highs to the 40s along and east of highway 83 into ncntl Nebraska.
Once again, the models are dry with the warm front and this is unusual given the PWAT near 0.6 inches. The lack of low level focus is probably the cause for the models showing no rain.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
The big warm up continues on track for Wednesday and Thursday with h850mb temperatures warming to 15C; near 5C at h700mb.
850-300mb RH will drop to 15-25 percent which is very dry suggesting clear skies. The NAM and ECM show this wedge of dry air advancing east across the cntl Rockies Wednesday and still in place through noon Thursday.
The latest development in the models is that Thursday could be a windy day with west winds increasing to 25 to 35 mph with a shift to the northwest during the afternoon. The wind speed prediction is supported by the models showing 500m AGL winds of that speed in knots. The wind shift represents the leading edge of cooler air and is supported by sfc low pressure across ern ND. The official forecast is for slightly lower wind speeds and later forecasts will mark up speeds if warranted.
It is somewhat difficult to predict fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. The heating cycle is very short, just a few hours, and the prospect of reaching Red Flag criteria is therefore uncertain.
Nonetheless, it appears fire weather concerns are increasing and later forecasts will get a better fix on this potential weather event.
The models continue to show about a 20C drop in temperatures at h850mb between Thursday night and Saturday morning. The Pacific front will be quite strong and the latest POP forecast has dropped chances to 20 percent or less Friday with little or no chance Saturday. The reason for this is likely the push of west winds Thursday will sweep wrn and ncntl Nebraska clear of moisture with the better focus and dynamics across areas near and east of the lower Missouri basin. Basically, the forecast for the next 7 days is for little or no measureable rain or snow.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 606 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Gusty northwest winds are expected again today. Gusts of 25-30kt are likely this afternoon all areas and continuing into this evening across north central Neb. Removed the showers from area TAFs as any activity should be very isolated. VFR conditions are expected to be the rule across all of western and north central Neb. through tonight.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Wind History from LXN
(wind in knots)
North Platte, NE,
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