Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mansfield, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered light snow showers are expected through this evening.
Isolated snow squalls are possible today along and ahead of the approaching cold front, which could briefly create hazardous travel conditions.

2) A prolonged period of frigid weather is expected tonight through Tuesday night with highs in the 10s and lows in the single digits. Dangerous wind chills as low as -20F are possible Monday into Tuesday.

3) Scattered snow showers are possible early next week, with a chance for more impactful lake effect snow Monday into Tuesday across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Confidence in the lake effect is medium at this time.

DISCUSSION
Update...
Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. However, increased POP's through this early evening to account for the ongoing precip banding along and ahead of the E'ward-moving cold front. At the surface, this front was roughly located along a Huron to Marion, OH line as of 9:45 AM EST this morning. The surface cold front is expected to exit the rest of our CWA by 5 PM this evening, give or take one hour. Convergence/moist ascent along the surface cold front will release weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL and result in strong/maximized ascent at a cloud temperature near -8C to -10C as surface wet-bulb temperatures hover near 0C. Thus, expect steady to heavy snow and graupel showers along the front. Light snow showers related to moist isentropic ascent aloft remain possible ahead of the front, while light snow showers are also possible for up to several hours behind the surface cold front passage and will be associated with convergence/moist ascent along the upper-reaches of the front.
Fresh snow accumulations today are expected to be 2" or less.
Greatest amounts are expected in the higher terrain of NW PA, where a somewhat colder environment should allow snow to accumulate more easily.

KEY MESSAGE 1...
A low pressure system is currently tracking through the Upper Great Lakes today. The first of a couple cold fronts will push through the region today. Scattered light snow showers are expected off and on today ahead of the cold front. There is some potential for isolated heaver snow showers or brief squalls along and ahead of the approaching cold front. These brief heavy burst of snow could briefly create hazardous travel conditions. Temperatures ahead of the cold front will be relatively milder in the lower to middle 30s before temperatures fall behind the frontal passage. Any snowfall today will be light an inch or less.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A prolonged period of very cold weather is expected to start tonight and last through Tuesday night. The first of a couple cold fronts will move through later tonight. Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower teens. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Another stronger cold front with an Arctic airmass behind it will move across the region late Sunday night into Monday. High temperatures on Monday will be in the teens to near 20 degrees. Overnight low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning will be near or slightly below Zero. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the lower to middle teens. Overnight low temperatures Tuesday night will be back down in the single digits to lower teens. More importantly, there will be dangerous wind chills of -10F to -20F Monday into Tuesday. A cold weather advisory will likely be needed to highlight this threat of dangerous cold weather.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Scattered snow showers will be possible Sunday night through Monday night areawide. The potential for accumulating and more impactful heavy lake effect snow is increasing for far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Monday into Tuesday.
Initially the development of this lake effect snow event will be towards southwestern New York. But as the low level flow becomes more westerly over Lake Erie, this lake effect snow potential will likely drift into northwest Pennsylvania and far northeast Ohio Monday through Tuesday. There may be the potential for heavy lake effect snow and forecast confidence is medium at this time. If forecast confidence continues to increase, a Winter Storm Watch for Lake Effect Snow may be needed to parts of NWPA and maybe far NEOH. Another storm system and low pressure system may track across the Great Lakes region during the middle of next week, Wednesday into Thursday with additional chances for snow showers areawide and Lake Effect Snow for the primary Snowbelt.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/
The main focus through 20 or 21z will be a band of snow showers and squalls along a cold front, extending from near HZY to CAK and moving east at about 30kt. Brief LIFR vsby and a quick accumulation of snow is accompanying these snow showers and squalls, along with wind gusts up to 35kt. MVFR ceilings linger for a few hours behind the front, before either scattering out or rising to VFR into this evening. MVFR ceilings may return Sunday morning. South-southwest winds ahead of the front are turning more west-southwest and 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt behind the front. Winds will lose their gustiness this evening, outside of ERI where gusts will continue longer into the night.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow showers Sunday night into Monday.
Non-VFR may linger in lake effect snow across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday through Wednesday.

MARINE
Ice coverage continues to expand across the western basin of Lake Erie. Hazardous marine conditions across the central and eastern basins will persist into next week as multiple systems move across the Great Lakes.

Confidence is increasing for a combination of Gales and freezing spray Monday into Tuesday across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie as a clipper slides east through the Great Lakes, ushering in west to southwest winds of 30 to 35 knots. In addition, this system will extend an arctic front across the region, with lake air temperatures over ice- free areas expected to drop into the low teens. If trends continue, a Gale Watch appears likely in the next forecast cycle.

Following this system, southwest winds will remain elevated, around 25 knots, into Wednesday. Winds should gradually subside to 20 knots or less and begin to favor a west direction by Thursday

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ146>149.