Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stansbury Park, UT

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:25PM Friday March 5, 2021 11:42 AM MST (18:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:07AMMoonset 10:52AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stansbury Park, UT
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location: 40.78, -112.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 051742 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1042 AM MST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure remains in control today before a dry and breezy storm system moves through Saturday. A cooler and more active weather pattern appears to be ahead for next week.

UPDATE. A mid level ridge has shifted overhead this morning with axis nearly bisecting the state from S-N per latest H5 analysis. This ridge will remain transitory today as a broad trough off the PacNW continues to shear/split onshore heading into the overnight hours. With a net downstream translation of the ridge tonight, latest guidance continues to support a rapid increase of deep layer southwesterly flow across the west/north downstream of the southern split of this trough which will graze the northwest beginning early Saturday morning. No real changes to the going forecast . guidance continues to support a solid advisory wind event across west- central and southwest Utah, with largely sub- advisory winds along the Wasatch Front. 12z Hi-Res output time the period of strongest gusts late morning into the afternoon, gradually decreasing thereafter. Primary focus for this shift will continue to key in on timing/areal extent of advisory level gust potential Saturday.

For today, did a minor update to remove mention of clouds through this afternoon. A beautiful bluebird day is to be had, slightly warmer than 24 hours previous, with temps punching 10+ degrees above climo during the peak heating hours this afternoon. We're already well on our way, as KSLC has already exceeded 50F as of this writing.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. A trough splitting over the eastern Pacific today will send the southerly weakening portion of the split on shore across northern California tonight. This dry and weakening wave will track quickly east-northeastward on Saturday grazing across northern Utah by Saturday afternoon. The tightening gradient between this trough and ridge just to our east will ramp up winds across western Utah on Saturday. Forecast models are are in good agreement in bringing a core of 50-55 knot 700 mb winds in southwest and west central Utah early Saturday morning. This will initially bring breezy conditions over ridgetops and in southerly downslope areas that may start to see gusts 40-55 mph early Saturday morning. However, more widespread winds will hold off until mid to late morning as cooling aloft and daytime surface heating combine to steepen low- level lapse rates and encourage momentum mixing to the surface. By the time this starts to happen the core of 700 mb winds starts to weaken to around 40-45 knots over southwest and west central Utah, while an axis of 35-40 knot winds will expand northeastward across northern Utah into southwest Wyoming by Saturday midday into early afternoon. Confidence is highest in seeing wind gusts 45-55 mph across southwest and west-central Utah on Saturday, and have thus issued a Wind Advisory for this area. Areas farther north into the Tooele County and even the Salt Lake Valley may get close to advisory criteria, but are currently expected to be in the 35-45 mph range (a breezy day nonetheless). With exceptional drought conditions continuing, especially across southwest Utah, combined with the breezy, dry and warm conditions, there is some concern that small fires could start more easily than usual for this time of year. Otherwise, dry soil conditions will also also support some areas of blowing dust across western Utah.

Temperatures on Saturday will be quite warm ahead of the cold front thanks a very mild airmass (700 mb to +1C to start the day), a well mixed boundary layer and areas downslope flow in the southerly winds all squeezing the most warming out of the airmass despite some increased cloud cover with the wave passage. Thus it is possible several locations get within a few degrees of record high temperatures (about 15-20 degrees above normal), although getting to those records will likely be a challenge. For SLC for instance, the forecast high of 68 will get us within 2 degrees of the record high of 70 degrees (although it would not be surprising to see locations in the southeastern portion of the valley reach 70 where the downslope effect is strongest).

Otherwise, a weak cold front moves through late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night while washing out across northern into central Utah. This will cool temperatures just a few degrees into Sunday, bringing us back into the 10-15 degrees above average range.

A similar setup to that of the aforementioned wind event expected Saturday will be in place Monday. An upstream longwave trough in the eastern Pacific will provide more warm southwest synoptic flow. The 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF indicate 700 mb winds of roughly 30-35 knots through Monday. Dry lower levels with temperatures cooling quickly from the surface to 700 mb will help get mixing going, especially in the afternoon. Temperatures will be 10F to possibly 20F warmer than average in southwest Wyoming and most of Utah.

There's also good model agreement on the longwave trough going down the Pacific coast and bringing a frontal boundary through the area. A strong baroclinic zone will move in with the front, likely on Tuesday. Snow showers are expected, mainly in the northern mountains with light valley rain showers. Temperatures will also be closer towards average, with highs dropping some 10-20F from Monday.

The longwave trough pattern will remain in place through the Great Basin into late in the week. Temperatures should stay close to average through then. There will be daily snow chances in the mountains from smaller waves within the longwave pattern. Most ensemble guidance keeps the pattern in place through Friday. Roughly 25% of GEFS members bring a building ridge to the west later Friday, but the majority of GEFS and EPS members hold the cooler and wetter pattern in place through the week.

AVIATION. Operational weather concerns will remain minimal at the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Southeast winds currently in place are expected to shift to the northwest between 20-22z. VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for UTZ015-016.

WY . None.

DISCUSSION/AVIATION . Merrill PREVIOUS DISCUSSION . Church/Wilson

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Salt Lake City, Salt Lake City International Airport, UT17 mi49 minESE 510.00 miA Few Clouds52°F26°F37%1026.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSLC

Wind History from SLC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmW6W3N7N3N4NE4SE5SE8SE6S7SE7SE8SE7SE5S5E6SE5SE7SE7SE6SE9SE5
1 day agoS8NW73CalmNW4N9W9W8S4S3CalmSE4S9CalmN3S6CalmS9S7S16
G24
S4SE8SE12S6
2 days agoNW6NW9NW6NW33W8W8W6CalmS3SE4SE5SE5SE6E6E4S4SE5E8SE8S4E6E4Calm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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