Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayview, CA

DISCUSSION
High pressure continues building into the West Coast. This is promoting surface north-northeast winds, with some breezy winds over the higher terrain observed. Areas of fog and patchy dense fog have developed overnight along the shelter valleys with clear skies and strong radiational cooling. High dew point values in the upper 30's to mid 40's are precluding frost conditions across the interior valleys in Trinity and Mendocino counties keeping low temperatures in the upper 30's to mid 40's.

Drying and warming trend will continue today through Friday across Northwest California, but weak shortwaves low will drive down across the eastern periphery of the ridge. This will bring periods of increasing mid to high level clouds across the area.
Inland high temperatures are forecast to be in the 70's, with the warmest days Thursday and Friday. Although, highs warming up into the low 80's are expected are expected across the warmest interior valleys. Coastal areas will remain seasonably with highs in the upper 50's into low 60's. Winds are expected to breezy each afternoon along the coast, but nothing particularly notable.

Friday night into Saturday, an upper level trough and associated weak cold front drop down from western Canada. This will bring an increasing chance (25-50%) of precipitation across the northern portion of the forecast area, especially for Del Norte. Rain forecast amounts remain light, with showers mostly over the interior and perhaps a push of marine moisture and low clouds.
NBM probabilities of 24hr precipitation of 0.10 in or greater from 25-35% in Del Norte. Otherwise, dry weather with near or below normal high temperatures in the interior is the most likely outcome for this weekend. Winds are expected to strengthen behind this weather system and the ECMWF is highlighting notable winds.
This is expected to increase fire danger, but this will depend on how low the RH remains.

Next week high temperatures are expected to warm and the inland areas may see some of the warmest temperatures so far this season.
The NBM is showing a 30 to 40 percent chance of Ukiah reaching 100 degrees late next week./ZVS



AVIATION
Early Wednesday morning conditions are MVFR with TEMPO movement into IFR. Chances for IFR will greatly reduce later this morning. As was seen yesterday, an onshore wind push will coral some stratus inland around Humboldt Bay along the higher terrain. This will present opportunity for TEMPO MVFR CIGS into the afternoon at ACV. Full scattering is then likely. Northerly winds will become breezy, with gusts of 25 to 30 kts expected at the coastal terminals this afternoon. As winds ease this evening, the stratus will expand once again around Humboldt Bay, through ACV and likely into CEC with highly localized southerly return winds. CIGS will initially continue MVFR with dips to IFR possible. A ridge will nose in from the west as a trough exits east. This setup will favor better chances for IFR to maybe LIFR CIGS going into Thursday morning with a compressing inversion. Currently probabilities are on the lower end for IFR (30%), and lower for LIFR (18%), but these may trend higher. JJW



MARINE
As a trough slowly departs east, high pressure ridging will nose in to the region from the west. As a result, the northerly winds will trend stronger through Thursday. Advisory level winds up to 25 kts, with higher gusts, can be expected in the northerly zones through Thursday afternoon. Winds will particularly be accelerated around Cape Mendocino from the expansion fan. Northerly winds up to 30 kts, with higher gusts are now forecast through close to half of zone 475 and 455. This magnitude of winds has warranted Gale Watches from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night when the strongest winds are forecast. The fading, mid period NW swell pulsed higher and the ongoing Small Craft Advisories have been expanded into the Northern Inner zone 450 to cover the steep waves and anticipated strengthening northerly winds.

A weak shortwave trough will dive south through the region on Friday. This will temporarily weaken the northerly winds on Friday, but winds of over 20 kts will remain south of the cape. Northerly winds will quickly snap back stronger Saturday behind the trough.
Gale Warning criteria may once again be met in the southern waters south of the cape if coverage is high enough, particularly Sunday afternoon. JJW



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ107-108- 110-111-114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-470.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455-475.

Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for PZZ455-475.