Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Edgewater, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1) Winds will subside this evening, leading to tranquil conditions into Sunday.

2) A strong frontal system brings potential of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and minor flooding along with strong winds late Sunday night into Monday night.

3) A mainly dry and unseasonably cold airmass settles into the area midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
The steep pressure gradient and deep mixing that brought strong wind gusts 40-45 mph earlier in the day will relax this evening. Wind gusts will quickly diminish this evening with winds becoming light overnight. High pressure settles over the area tonight before shifting off the east coast by Sunday afternoon.

Low temperatures tonight fall into the upper 20s inland with lower to middle 30s closer to the coast. Highs on Sunday should end up close to seasonable levels in the mid to upper 40s, with some locations near the NYC metro close to 50 degrees.


KEY MESSAGE 2
An amplifying upper trough tracks from the Great Plains on Sunday towards the Ohio Valley and east coast Monday into Monday night.
Low pressure will deepen ahead of the trough near the Great Lakes on Sunday and then lift into southeast Canada through Monday night.
This will send a strong frontal system across the region late Sunday night into Monday night.

The main concerns for any impactful weather occur Monday into Monday night with periods of showers, which may be locally heavy at times, strong winds, and a chance of thunderstorms. There is also a chance of localized minor coastal flooding at times of high tide on Monday.

The associated warm front will quickly lift north of the area late Sunday night into Monday morning. Warm advection showers will quickly move across the area from south to north. There is some weak instability aloft, so a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Brief locally heavy rainfall is also possible in this shower activity.

The guidance signals that this area of showers will push off to the northeast with the region in the warm sector late Monday morning into the afternoon. An increasing low level jet supports potential of showers at any point into the afternoon, but uncertainty exists with the organization and duration of this activity into the afternoon. Some of the guidance indicates showers will be focused on convergence boundaries east of the NYC metro with a relative min in activity from the city NW. Any showers will be capable of moderate to locally heavy rainfall.

The strong cold front approaches in the evening and will be accompanied by moderate to heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms.
Timing of the front still differs amongst the guidance with a range from around sunset to mid to late evening. The front will interact with anomalous moisture levels for this time of year with PWATs close to 1.5 inches. Any surface based CAPE will largely reside to our west away from the impacts of onshore flow. However, the strong low level flow and elevated instability may be enough to support some severe thunderstorms across NE NJ and potentially into the NYC metro. SPC has a Day 3 marginal risk into this portion of the area with the low risk for damaging wind gusts in this line of convection. The convective line should weaken a bit as it heads eastward, but locally heavy rain and gusty winds remain possible.
Showers should begin diminishing behind the front overnight into early Tuesday morning.

Rainfall amounts range from about 1.25 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Peak rainfall rates of 0.75-1"/hr in the heaviest showers possible. The NBM probability for greater than 2 inches is currently 15-30 percent.

Minor, nuisance flooding is the main concern with the rainfall.
WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall with a localized risk for flash flooding. Some training of cells is possible, but the system overall is progressive. There is also fast flow in the low levels, so convective activity will be moving quickly, limiting potential of significant flooding. Some of the flashier rivers could rise close to flood stage. Have held off on the issuance of a flood watch since the event is still a few days out and there is uncertainty where the heaviest rainfall will ultimately fall.

Strong winds are likely Monday into Monday night. The strong southerly flow over the cold ocean will help set up an inversion above the surface (around 1-2kft). This inversion is quite strong and will likely limit the mixing of higher winds to the surface.
Winds will increase through the day, but the strongest winds appear most likely in the late afternoon into the evening. Models indicate a low level jet from 75-90 kt from 850-925 mb. Past wind research per WFO BOX indicates that when there is the presence of a strong inversion, about half the winds at 925 mb have the potential to reach the surface. NBM probability for observing wind gusts over 55 mph is also quite low, about 10 percent or less. There is a chance the convective line with the cold front could help mix down some of the higher winds. However, there is a chance the convection weakens as it moves east of the NYC metro. Therefore, no high wind watches have been issued for the coast at this time based on these factors. There is a chance a wind advisory will be needed as the event draws closer.

Localized minor coastal flooding and localized beach erosion are also possible with this system given the expected magnitude of S flow and associated wave action. Astronomical tides will start rising early next week due to the approaching new moon. Tides are low this weekend, so it will take a significant surge to achieve widespread minor coastal flooding. Guidance has remained steady over the last 24 hours. The main concern for any localized minor coastal flooding continues to be with the most vulnerable locations of the south shore back Bays of Nassau, and western Great South Bay during times of high tide Monday and Monday night.


KEY MESSAGE 3
High pressure gradually builds in through the middle of the week, bringing a colder and drier airmass to the area. Temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday night will run about 10 degrees below normal for mid-March.

While the flow weakens by Tuesday, gusts up to 30-35 mph are still expected. Deep mixing is seen in latest model soundings (about 800- 700mb in both the NAM and GFS), but winds at the top of the mixed layer will be gradually weakening and only look to be upwards of around 40kt at this time. The colder temperatures combined with gusty winds will keep wind chill values on Tuesday in the low 30s.
Additionally, if winds lighten up quick enough Tuesday night, there is potential for low temperatures to end up a bit lower than forecast in the normal cool spots across the interior and LI Pine Barrens.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure builds across the area tonight and then passes to the east on Sunday. A strong frontal system will impact the area Sunday night through Monday night.

Mainly VFR. Sub-VFR develops in the 00-06Z Sunday timeframe for the 30h taf sites.

NW winds will rapidly diminish this evening a high pressure builds in from the west and across the area later tonight. Winds may for a time become light and variable, then NE-E Sunday morning at less than 10 kt. Winds will then veer to the ESE-SE in the afternoon around 10kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Chance of LLWS develops toward 03Z Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction may be more variable for the Sun AM push.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday PM: VFR. SE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday night: MVFR to IFR conditions to develop as showers work into the area, mainly after 03Z. Chance of thunderstorms toward daybreak. SE wind gusts near 20 kt, increasing to near 30 kt by daybreak Monday. Southerly LLWS likely, especially at the coastal terminals.

Monday: IFR or lower, with rain, heavy at times in the afternoon and early evening. A chance of thunderstorms. Winds become southerly early, with gusts 30-40 kt, highest at the coast. Peak gusts up to 45 kt possible along the coast late day into the evening. LLWS. Winds decrease slightly and become more westerly late Monday night, gusts 25-35 kt. Rain tapers off, possibly mixing with snow as it does so.

Tuesday: Rain/snow ends early in the morning. MVFR or lower possible early, improving to VFR by afternoon. WSW gusts 25 to 30 kt.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
The Gale Warning has been allowed to expire this evening, but has been replaced with a SCA for eastern waters as elevated seas and 25 kt gusts linger.

After a brief lull in conditions Sunday, winds and seas quickly increase Sunday night into Monday morning, ramping up further into Monday evening. SCA conditions are likely Sunday night, with a chance of gale force winds Monday into Monday night.
There is a chance for storm force gusts on the ocean. Wind gusts in recent events with a strong inversion have come in lower than forecast. While this event will have higher winds below the inversion, not enough confidence to issue a storm watch at this time. Have issued a gale watch on the waters Monday through Monday night. Will continue to mention potential for storm force gusts in the HWO.

Gusty winds continue on Tuesday with SCA likely on all waters through the day. SCA conditions could continue on the ocean through potentially Wednesday morning as elevated seas linger. Sub SCA conditions expected thereafter through the end of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-340-345.
Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.