Thursday, April9, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guttenberg, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:30PM Thursday April 9, 2020 8:45 PM EDT (00:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:39PMMoonset 7:38AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 807 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
.gale warning in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less in the evening.
ANZ300 807 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will track up into the canadian maritimes into Friday, while high pressure over the mid section of the country builds east. The high moves across the waters Saturday night into Sunday morning. A complex low pressure system will approach Sunday night and move across on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guttenberg, NJ
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location: 40.78, -73.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 092331 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 731 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build from the west Friday through Saturday night, then move offshore on Sunday. A complex low pressure system will approach Sunday night and move across on Monday. A cold front will move across on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east as a cold front moves through, ending everywhere after 8 pm. The severe threat has pushed offshore, therefore the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was previously in effect was cancelled/expired.

Weak shortwaves aloft and at the surface may bring a passing shower across much of the area after midnight, except southwestern Connecticut, with a snowflake possibly mixing in the interior.

Winds will continue to be on the strong side, with gusts up to 45 mph expected as the cold front moves through and the surge of cold advection just behind it. Therefore, will continue with the Wind Advisory through 8 pm. Thereafter, winds will diminish, especially in some of the outlying areas where some model soundings show an inversion setting up, which would preclude high wind gusts.

Temperatures will drop near normal levels tonight, with lows ranging from the 30s inland to the lower 40s in the New York City metro area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. On Friday, on the back side of the low that is slowly moving into the Canadian Maritimes, a vort max/shortwaves will be in the vicinity, again giving the area a slight chance for showers, this time mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut.

The biggest concern on Friday will be the winds that develop as the pressure gradient tightens up. Strong westerly winds will gust 40-45 mph with sustained winds 25-30 mph. A wind advisory may be needed, but because of the uncertainty, did not issue one just yet, but may need to be issued with the overnight forecast.

Temperatures will be below normal on Friday, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure will strengthen as it moves east Saturday night with the local pressure tendency in the region increasing Saturday night. The high will be moving offshore going into Sunday and will eventually give way to an approaching complex low pressure system approaching from the south and west. The progression of the system will have a warm front passage followed by a cold front passage Monday into Monday evening.

Dry weather will prevail Sunday into Sunday evening as the atmospheric column will have to sufficiently moisten before the commencement of rainfall ahead of this system. Rain becomes likely late Sunday night and continues through much of Monday. Heavy rain will be possible Monday morning with the bulk of the rainfall occurring Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. Rain tapers off Monday night.

Rain showers a possibility again on Tuesday into Tuesday night with another cold frontal passage. Models show possible stalling of the front offshore heading into Wednesday so another chance of rain showers is forecast Wednesday as well.

Temperatures on average are forecast to be a few degrees below normal Friday night through Saturday night, near normal Sunday, above normal Sunday night through Monday night, and closer to normal thereafter.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Low pres will track away from the area thru Fri.

Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. There could be a few brief periods of MVFR or lower in isold-sct shra or shsn, especially on Fri. Coverage and probability are too low to include in the TAFs attm.

Strong WNW winds thru the TAF period. Some decrease in strength tngt, then increasing speeds aft 14Z Fri. Peak gusts around 40 kt expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday night. VFR with WNW winds gradually diminishing to 15-20G25kt. Saturday. VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt. Sunday. VFR. Sunday night and Monday. MVFR to IFR in rain. S winds G20-30kt. Chance of LLWS. Tuesday. Cold fropa with chance mainly afternoon showers/MVFR. W winds G15-20kt.

MARINE. Gales on all waters today through Friday as low pressure strengthens while MARINE. Gales on all waters today through Friday.

A strong frontal system will pass through the waters today with a strengthening southerly flow this morning, followed by a westerly gale developing in the afternoon. There looks to be short respite for the first half of tonight before gales return to the waters during the early morning hours Friday. A shot of cold air in conjunction with deepening low pressure tracking from northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night into Friday will allow gales to continue through Friday evening.

SCA gusts for all waters Saturday. Sub-SCA conditions Saturday night into Sunday evening as high pressure moves across the waters. SCA gusts return for all waters late Sunday night with gales on the ocean probable again Monday with rest of waters maintaining SCA gusts. SCA gusts linger into much of Monday night. Ocean seas forecast of 5 to 8 ft Friday night, 3 to 5 ft Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. Then below 5 ft ocean seas thereafter through Sunday evening. Ocean seas build back up to near 6 to 11 ft late Sunday night into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER. Wetting rains today should help limit fire growth potential on Friday despite strong winds and low afternoon RH. With some drying out Saturday, could be a day of concern, with W winds still gusting to 30 mph and minimum RH 20-30%.

HYDROLOGY. QPF of 1-2 inches Sunday night into Monday could also cause at least minor poor drainage flooding at that time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of spring tides (some places needed less than 1/4 ft of positive tidal departures for minor coastal flooding) and background tidal anomaly will have water levels exceeding minor flood thresholds for vulnerable locations along Western Long Island Sound, the south shore bays of western Long Island, and along NY/NJ harbor. This all despite mostly weak wind/wave forcing.

Astronomical tides are about 1/2 ft lower for this mornings high tides, but strengthening SE flow ahead of an approaching frontal system should allow for surge of 1-2 ft to develop, with another round of widespread minor coastal flooding in the aforementioned areas. Timing of peak winds looks to be after high tide farther east, but if stronger winds arrive sooner, minor coastal impacts could occur there as well.

Strong offshore flow develops before tonight high tide cycle. Similar to Wednesday nights tide, not much surge needed to reach minor flooding thresholds. Highest threat of minor coastal flooding is along the south shore bays of Long Island, with water slow to exit through the inlets. Elsewhere, a negative surge will likely have water levels falling below minor flood thresholds.

Breaking waves likely to build to 4-6 ft today, which will likely cause beach erosion, but dune impacts should be minimal.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY . Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for NYZ178-179. NJ . Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345- 350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JM/JP NEAR TERM . JP SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . CB/JM AVIATION . MARINE . JP FIRE WEATHER . HYDROLOGY . CB/Goodman/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 6 mi46 min 50°F 49°F994 hPa (+2.9)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi46 min NW 15 G 20 51°F 993.7 hPa (+2.8)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 11 mi46 min N 23 G 32 50°F 55°F994.4 hPa (+3.1)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 13 mi46 min 51°F 51°F994.2 hPa (+3.0)
MHRN6 14 mi46 min NW 15 G 21
44022 - Execution Rocks 15 mi31 min WNW 19 G 29 49°F 32°F28°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi46 min NW 20 G 25 51°F 52°F994.5 hPa (+3.0)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi61 min WNW 18 G 27 49°F 2 ft30°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi26 min WNW 16 G 19 50°F 994.2 hPa35°F

Wind History for Robbins Reef, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York City, Central Park, NY0 mi55 minWNW 910.00 miFair49°F25°F39%993.7 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY5 mi55 minWNW 19 G 3110.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy50°F25°F38%993.5 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ7 mi55 minWNW 18 G 2910.00 miFair and Breezy48°F25°F41%993.5 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ12 mi55 minNW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds50°F21°F33%993.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY13 mi55 minWNW 16 G 3310.00 miA Few Clouds50°F25°F38%993.8 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ18 mi53 minNW 910.00 miFair50°F24°F36%994.7 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi61 minNNW 8 G 1310.00 miA Few Clouds48°F26°F43%994.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYC

Wind History from NYC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm4S6S5--Calm4CalmS5S74SE9
G15
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S7--3W3W18
G31
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1 day agoS33CalmCalmSW4SW4E3CalmSW3CalmCalmNE4NE5NE53Calm5N735N5NE6NE4Calm
2 days ago453N3NW4W33W34W63W53CalmW534Calm5SE11
G18
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G14
5Calm3

Tide / Current Tables for East 41st Street, New York City, East River, New York, New York
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East 41st Street
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:52 AM EDT     -1.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:03 AM EDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:09 PM EDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:28 PM EDT     5.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.13.61.90.4-0.7-1.2-0.512.744.95.24.93.82.30.8-0.3-0.9-0.60.82.54.15.25.7

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:18 AM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT     1.20 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:45 PM EDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.5-0.10.20.61.11.10.60.2-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.6-0.20.10.40.91.20.80.3-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.