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Marine Weather and Tides Remsenburg-Speonk, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 5:29AM

Sunset 8:24PM

Sunday July 12, 2020 5:38 PM EDT (21:38 UTC)

Moonrise 12:20AM

Moonset 12:47PM

Illumination 50%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Remsenburg-Speonk, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 122006 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 406 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front lingers offshore through Monday. Weak cold front pushes south of the area Tuesday. High builds behind the front Wednesday before moving east over the ocean Thursday. Trough and surface boundary approach southern New York Friday before lingering into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A broad upper trough extends from the OH Valley through the northeast US with multiple shortwaves embedded. The local area remains between two shortwave features this afternoon with some ridging aloft, resulting in mainly dry conditions and partly cloudy skies under westerly/southwesterly flow. A sea breeze has developed across Long Island as well. Some scattered showers are developing across eastern PA, and may clip northwest zones later this afternoon, but confidence is low. Temperatures are in the upper 80s across the region, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, making it feel less humid compared to previous days.

There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches today due to continued long period southerly swell through this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. By this evening, a weak shortwave out ahead of the main upper trough approaches from the southwest. Moisture increases with predominately southwest flow through the evening. These, combined with the frontal boundary to the south, will result in increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances by early Monday morning. Model soundings do indicate some elevated instability for a period early Monday morning, so a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out with any showers/storms that do move through the area. Latest 12Z CAMs/HREF have trended down the areal coverage of precipitation relative to their previous cycles, however.

Attention later on Monday focuses on the flash flood and severe thunderstorm potential, as the main upper trough axis and attendant cold front approach the area by Monday evening. Some uncertainly exists with respect to convective development overall, which will hinge on the amount of destabilization realized during the late morning and early afternoon. The convective threat will be somewhat diminished if the early morning cloud cover and precipitation hangs on longer than currently forecast. Current thinking is that clouds and any remaining showers are out of the area by 14-16Z, which is broadly supported by short term model guidance.

First, areal mean precipitable water values will remain elevated, near 1.5-2 inches, so any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce flash flooding. This will be especially true across northeastern NJ and the southern Hudson Valley which saw some of the highest rainfall totals from TS Fay late last week. 1-hr FFG has been consistently around 0.5-1" in these areas the past couple of days. In addition, 12Z HREF is showing a swath of 60-80% >1" per hour exceedance probabilities for parts of SW CT Monday afternoon. NCEP/WPC has SW CT in a slight risk and the remainder of our area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday.

Second, a warm humid airmass in place ahead of the approaching cold front, along with sufficient daytime heating will result in an increased threat of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Moderate instability, with model soundings indicating SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40 kts look sufficient to support a few organized storms. NCEP/SPC maintains a marginal risk for the entire area on Monday. Convective activity looks to diminsh by Monday evening as the cold front clears the coast.

Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 60s inland to the low 70s elsewhere. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s as dewpoints rise back into the upper 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Upper level trough over central New England drops south through southern New York Tuesday. At the same time weak cold front near the Connecticut/ Massachusetts border pushes south. With the added lift from the trough overhead opted for scattered showers intimating along the front and chance PoPs for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut. Areas not impacted by showers will likely reach temperatures in the upper 80s for the afternoon.

Conditions dry and lingering rain comes to an end overnight once the aforementioned trough shifts over the Atlantic. Temperatures should fall into the low 70s/ upper 60s due to the clearing skies overhead.

Ridge builds into the Northeast Wednesday as a 1022mb surface high off the coast of Cape Cod drifts south promoting a more stable environment locally. 1000-500 mb RH values below 40% should keep skies relatively cloud free. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s will make for a pleasant Summers day.

As the high and ridge drift east late in the week into the weekend expect a return to a more wet and unstable environment. A long wave trough moving east into New England pulls north Gulf moisture into New York. Precipitable water values above 1.70 inches could fuel heavy rain Friday and possibly Saturday. Timing of the trough is still uncertain at this time and will have to be monitored for future updates.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Weak high pressure across the region will eventually give way to approaching low pressure tonight into Monday.

VFR continues through much of tonight. However, chances for MVFR will increase late tonight into Monday with a chance of rain showers. Due to uncertainty in exact timing, left as VCSH in TAFs after 04-06Z Monday. This initial timing could be a few hours off.

W-SW flow 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt will eventually subside this evening with winds overall becoming more SW and decreasing to near 5-8 kt. Wind direction becomes variable late tonight into Monday before a more S-SW flow 5-10 kt returns Monday late morning into afternoon.

Thunderstorms are a possibility as well late tonight into Monday but at this point, probabilities are too low to include in TAFs. Chances for thunderstorms will increase Monday afternoon, becoming likely.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday. Showers and thunderstorms likely afternoon into early evening before diminishing thereafter from west to east. MVFR to locally IFR conditions possible, otherwise VFR. S-SW winds 7-12 kt becoming W-NW going into the evening. Tuesday and Wednesday. Mainly VFR. Thursday-Friday. Mainly VFR. A chance of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower conditions possible, mainly Thursday night and Friday.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory continues on the ocean waters into this evening due to seas around 5 feet in lingering southerly swell. Seas will begin to fall below 5 feet west of Fire Island Inlet later this evening and farther east conditions will continue to remain elevated through Monday morning, before gradually fall below 5 feet during the day. After gusts to 20-25 kt on the ocean today, winds will generally remain below 20 kt on all waters through mid week.

Ocean waters relax below 4 feet Tuesday and remain between 3 and 4 feet through the week. Light north winds 10-15kts become more southerly by mid week into the weekend.

HYDROLOGY. Showers and thunderstorms on Monday could result in flash flooding, especially across northeast New Jersey where flash flood guidance remains less than one inch/hour, and southwest CT where the heaviest rain is expected.

No significant widespread rainfall is expected Tuesday through Saturday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/DBR NEAR TERM . DBR SHORT TERM . DBR LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . JM MARINE . DJ/DBR HYDROLOGY . DJ/DBR EQUIPMENT .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY	35 mi	29 min	SW 16 G 19	73°F	73°F		1006.6 hPa	68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	35 mi	51 min	SW 8.9 G 11	80°F	76°F		1005.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	36 mi	51 min	SW 7 G 11	84°F	76°F		1005.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY	43 mi	51 min		79°F	70°F		1006.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY	45 mi	29 min	SSW 14 G 16	76°F	73°F		1006.5 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound	48 mi	54 min	SW 5.8 G 9.7	82°F		1 ft		68°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT

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S11 G14

S8 G11

S7 G10

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SW6 G9

SW12

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W6

W9 G12

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W7 G11

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SW11 G14

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1 day ago

E12 G20

SE13 G20

SE9 G16

SE8 G15

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SE14 G20

S18 G24

S14 G21

S18 G24

S15 G19

S12 G17

SW14 G17

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S11 G14

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S12 G16

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2 days ago

S9

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NE2

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E5 G8

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SE4 G8

SE8 G15

SE8 G14

E10 G15

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SE9 G14

E12 G16

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY	5 mi	1.8 hrs	SW 14 G 20	10.00 mi	Fair	83°F	66°F	57%	1006.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY	9 mi	43 min	SSW 13 G 23	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	84°F	64°F	53%	1006.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY	21 mi	43 min	SW 14 G 20	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	84°F	66°F	55%	1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)

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S8 G16

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SW8 G15

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SW12 G19

SW11 G17

SW13 G20

SW12 G19

SW11 G22

SW13 G20

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SW13 G20

1 day ago

E14 G22

SE15 G22

SE8 G18

SE11 G21

SE11 G20

S16 G25

S17 G24

S15 G26

S12 G19

S9 G17

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2 days ago

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Calm

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Calm

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E9 G15

E8 G16

E11 G20

E10 G21

E14 G22

E10 G22

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Tide / Current Tables for Potunk Point, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY

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