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Marine Weather and Tides Remsenburg-Speonk, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:10AM

Sunset 4:52PM

Sunday January 17, 2021 3:43 AM EST (08:43 UTC)

Moonrise 11:08AM

Moonset 10:39PM

Illumination 16%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Remsenburg-Speonk, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 170834 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 334 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure gradually lifts up into the Canadian Maritimes through tonight. Thereafter, a series of weak troughs along with a cold front will pivot across the area through the middle of the week. A frontal system passes through Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure slowly builds into the beginning of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Low pressure will continue tracking towards the Canadian Maritimes today. Cyclonic flow aloft will continue through much of the day as the upper level low and surface low become vertically stacked by this afternoon.

The main story today will be the breezy W-SW winds. While there is cold advection early this morning, gusts have been occasional so far. A well mixed boundary layer and a relatively steep pressure gradient will lead to sustained winds and gusts increasing after sunrise. W-SW winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph are expected from late this morning into the afternoon. The pressure gradient relaxes a bit late this afternoon and we should see winds weaken towards sunset.

The well mixed boundary layer and westerly flow should allow temperatures to warm a bit higher than previously anticipated. Have sided closer to the warmer MAV guidance, which yields highs generally in the middle 40s, but could see some locations near the coast reach the upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The low pressure system lifts further northeast away from New England, but there will still be lingering pressure gradient. Winds will be much weaker than during the day, but still should see an average of 5-10 mph through the night as the boundary layer is unlikely to become complete decoupled even across the interior. Aloft, brief ridging moves overhead the first half of the night before heights begin falling ahead of the next upper trough. Partly cloudy skies to start the night will become mostly cloudy early Monday morning as the upper trough approaches. Lows will remain above normal in the upper 20s inland and the lower 30s elsewhere.

The upper trough will slide across the region on Monday. There will also be a weak surface trough passing through in the afternoon. Lift is weak with the troughs, but have maintained mention flurries inland and either flurries or sprinkles elsewhere late morning into the early afternoon. There is a dry subcloud layer so if any precipitation does make it to the surface, there could be flurries despite surface temperatures in the lower 40s. Due to the weak lift, have also mentioned potential of sprinkles where wet bulbs are a bit higher. Otherwise, the upper trough axis moves east of the area late in the day. Highs will be generally be in the 40s. It will remain breezy with potential for gusts 20-25 mph.

Another weak northern stream shortwave may pass Monday night. Initially, subsidence behind the passing shortwave will lead to mostly clear skies. There may be increasing clouds late Monday night as the flow becomes westerly and middle level moisture advects towards the area. A NW flow and cold advection Monday night should allow temperatures to fall into the 20s for much of the area except the NYC metro where lows will be in the lower 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The flow begins to amplify on Tuesday as a longwave trough swings across the Great Lakes region. Dry conditions will prevail on Tuesday, but there will be varying degrees of cloudiness ahead of the approaching longwave trough. Temperatures on Tuesday will slightly above normal in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

The approaching longwave trough moves through early Wednesday, and with the atmosphere cold enough through the column, flurries or snow showers will be possible across the entire region. Another less amplified wave moves through for Thursday into Thursday night. Models continue to indicate limited moisture and a progressive nature to the system with a weakening parent low and new low development well offshore. Have maintained low chance PoPs for some light snow with this system. However, if current model trends continue, then these may need to removed. There is also some uncertainty with a system for next Saturday with much of the energy remaining to the north as weak ridging builds slowly from the Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low pressure over northern New England moves into the Canadian maritimes later this morning.

VFR. BKN ceilings possible around 4000-4500 ft this afternoon.

Gusty west winds will be the rule the next 24 hours as deepening low pressure lifts up into the Canadian Maritimes. Expect speeds 10 to 15 kt early with gust up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt after 14Z.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Wind gusts may be less frequent through early this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday. VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt, mainly during the day. Tuesday. VFR. Wednesday. Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR. Thursday. Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. A strong pressure gradient will be over the waters today as low pressure slowly lifts into the Canadian Maritimes. Gales are likely on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet through this afternoon. There may also be occasional gusts to 35 kt on the ocean waters from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet. Otherwise, SCA conditions are expected on all waters through this afternoon. Winds should begin to weaken this evening on the NY Harbor and Western Sound. Winds on the Eastern Sound and LI Bays will take a bit longer to weaken, but winds should be below SCA by midnight. SCA conditions continue on the ocean tonight with winds gradually falling below 25 kt through early Monday morning. This lull in SCA winds is brief as there could be gusts to 25 kt on Monday and Monday night east of Fire Island Inlet. Elevated ocean seas will continue today before subsiding tonight into Monday. However, seas should still be above 5 ft on much of the ocean Monday night.

SCA conditions are likely on the ocean waters, and possibly the eastern Long Island Sound and eastern bays Tuesday into Wednesday night. A brief period of sub advisory is expected Thursday, however, ocean seas build back to SCA levels Thursday night into Friday as southwesterly winds increase ahead of a frontal system.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ335- 338. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ330-340- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ353-355. Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . DS/MET NEAR TERM . DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . DS/MET AVIATION . MW MARINE . DS/MET HYDROLOGY . DS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY	35 mi	33 min	W 27 G 37	41°F	49°F		998.6 hPa	31°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	35 mi	55 min	WSW 11 G 13	37°F	40°F		998.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	36 mi	55 min	WSW 5.1 G 7	35°F	42°F		997.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY	43 mi	55 min		38°F	42°F		997.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY	45 mi	43 min	W 25 G 31		48°F		1000.1 hPa (+2.9)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather	48 mi	48 min	W 24 G 31	38°F			994.8 hPa	25°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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11 AM

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Last 24hr

NE10 G14

NE13

NE15

NE14 G17

NE13 G17

N10 G13

NW7

NW5

W7 G10

W11 G14

W10 G14

W10 G14

W11

W10 G14

W10 G15

W11 G16

NW13 G17

W6

W11

W9

W11 G14

W12 G16

W11 G15

W10

1 day ago

NE6 G9

NE9 G13

NE9

NE6

SE2

NE9

NE5 G8

NE3

E5

E7 G10

SE10 G14

SE9 G16

SE11 G15

SE10 G15

E12 G18

E12 G16

E14 G20

E11 G19

E10 G13

E9 G17

E9 G16

NE6

NE11 G14

NE10

2 days ago

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S1

N1

NE2

NE5

NE3

NE4

NE4

SW4

S3

SE2

S3

N2

NE6

NE8 G11

NE5

NE6

NE7

NE7

NE9

NE8 G11

NE7 G10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY	5 mi	50 min	W 13	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	25°F	67%	999 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY	9 mi	47 min	W 11 G 20	10.00 mi	Fair	37°F	24°F	59%	999 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY	21 mi	47 min	WSW 11	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	25°F	67%	999.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

E10 G20

E8

E5

NW4

E7

W3

SW8

W11

W13

SW9

SW12

SW9

SW6

W6

W10

W9

W11 G21

W13 G18

W10

W7

W9

W8

W13

W13

1 day ago

NE4

E5

NE4

NE8

NE8

NE7

NE9

NE7

E6 G17

E9

E10 G18

E9 G21

E12 G20

E10 G21

E11 G21

E9 G17

E13 G22

E10 G21

E13 G25

E13 G22

E13 G21

E11 G18

E11 G21

E11 G24

2 days ago

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

NW4

N4

S6

4

3

SE3

Calm

Calm

NW3

Calm

N5

NW3

N6

N6

N4

Calm

N3

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Tide / Current Tables for Potunk Point, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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