Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Remsenburg-Speonk, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:24PM Sunday July 12, 2020 5:38 PM EDT (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:20AMMoonset 12:47PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 329 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
This afternoon..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 329 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak front lingers offshore through Monday. High pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday, then offshore on Thursday. The next frontal boundary approaches the region on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
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location: 40.8, -72.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 122006 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 406 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front lingers offshore through Monday. Weak cold front pushes south of the area Tuesday. High builds behind the front Wednesday before moving east over the ocean Thursday. Trough and surface boundary approach southern New York Friday before lingering into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A broad upper trough extends from the OH Valley through the northeast US with multiple shortwaves embedded. The local area remains between two shortwave features this afternoon with some ridging aloft, resulting in mainly dry conditions and partly cloudy skies under westerly/southwesterly flow. A sea breeze has developed across Long Island as well. Some scattered showers are developing across eastern PA, and may clip northwest zones later this afternoon, but confidence is low. Temperatures are in the upper 80s across the region, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, making it feel less humid compared to previous days.

There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches today due to continued long period southerly swell through this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. By this evening, a weak shortwave out ahead of the main upper trough approaches from the southwest. Moisture increases with predominately southwest flow through the evening. These, combined with the frontal boundary to the south, will result in increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances by early Monday morning. Model soundings do indicate some elevated instability for a period early Monday morning, so a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out with any showers/storms that do move through the area. Latest 12Z CAMs/HREF have trended down the areal coverage of precipitation relative to their previous cycles, however.

Attention later on Monday focuses on the flash flood and severe thunderstorm potential, as the main upper trough axis and attendant cold front approach the area by Monday evening. Some uncertainly exists with respect to convective development overall, which will hinge on the amount of destabilization realized during the late morning and early afternoon. The convective threat will be somewhat diminished if the early morning cloud cover and precipitation hangs on longer than currently forecast. Current thinking is that clouds and any remaining showers are out of the area by 14-16Z, which is broadly supported by short term model guidance.

First, areal mean precipitable water values will remain elevated, near 1.5-2 inches, so any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce flash flooding. This will be especially true across northeastern NJ and the southern Hudson Valley which saw some of the highest rainfall totals from TS Fay late last week. 1-hr FFG has been consistently around 0.5-1" in these areas the past couple of days. In addition, 12Z HREF is showing a swath of 60-80% >1" per hour exceedance probabilities for parts of SW CT Monday afternoon. NCEP/WPC has SW CT in a slight risk and the remainder of our area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday.

Second, a warm humid airmass in place ahead of the approaching cold front, along with sufficient daytime heating will result in an increased threat of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Moderate instability, with model soundings indicating SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40 kts look sufficient to support a few organized storms. NCEP/SPC maintains a marginal risk for the entire area on Monday. Convective activity looks to diminsh by Monday evening as the cold front clears the coast.

Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 60s inland to the low 70s elsewhere. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s as dewpoints rise back into the upper 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Upper level trough over central New England drops south through southern New York Tuesday. At the same time weak cold front near the Connecticut/ Massachusetts border pushes south. With the added lift from the trough overhead opted for scattered showers intimating along the front and chance PoPs for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut. Areas not impacted by showers will likely reach temperatures in the upper 80s for the afternoon.

Conditions dry and lingering rain comes to an end overnight once the aforementioned trough shifts over the Atlantic. Temperatures should fall into the low 70s/ upper 60s due to the clearing skies overhead.

Ridge builds into the Northeast Wednesday as a 1022mb surface high off the coast of Cape Cod drifts south promoting a more stable environment locally. 1000-500 mb RH values below 40% should keep skies relatively cloud free. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s will make for a pleasant Summers day.

As the high and ridge drift east late in the week into the weekend expect a return to a more wet and unstable environment. A long wave trough moving east into New England pulls north Gulf moisture into New York. Precipitable water values above 1.70 inches could fuel heavy rain Friday and possibly Saturday. Timing of the trough is still uncertain at this time and will have to be monitored for future updates.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Weak high pressure across the region will eventually give way to approaching low pressure tonight into Monday.

VFR continues through much of tonight. However, chances for MVFR will increase late tonight into Monday with a chance of rain showers. Due to uncertainty in exact timing, left as VCSH in TAFs after 04-06Z Monday. This initial timing could be a few hours off.

W-SW flow 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt will eventually subside this evening with winds overall becoming more SW and decreasing to near 5-8 kt. Wind direction becomes variable late tonight into Monday before a more S-SW flow 5-10 kt returns Monday late morning into afternoon.

Thunderstorms are a possibility as well late tonight into Monday but at this point, probabilities are too low to include in TAFs. Chances for thunderstorms will increase Monday afternoon, becoming likely.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday. Showers and thunderstorms likely afternoon into early evening before diminishing thereafter from west to east. MVFR to locally IFR conditions possible, otherwise VFR. S-SW winds 7-12 kt becoming W-NW going into the evening. Tuesday and Wednesday. Mainly VFR. Thursday-Friday. Mainly VFR. A chance of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower conditions possible, mainly Thursday night and Friday.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory continues on the ocean waters into this evening due to seas around 5 feet in lingering southerly swell. Seas will begin to fall below 5 feet west of Fire Island Inlet later this evening and farther east conditions will continue to remain elevated through Monday morning, before gradually fall below 5 feet during the day. After gusts to 20-25 kt on the ocean today, winds will generally remain below 20 kt on all waters through mid week.

Ocean waters relax below 4 feet Tuesday and remain between 3 and 4 feet through the week. Light north winds 10-15kts become more southerly by mid week into the weekend.

HYDROLOGY. Showers and thunderstorms on Monday could result in flash flooding, especially across northeast New Jersey where flash flood guidance remains less than one inch/hour, and southwest CT where the heaviest rain is expected.

No significant widespread rainfall is expected Tuesday through Saturday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/DBR NEAR TERM . DBR SHORT TERM . DBR LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . JM MARINE . DJ/DBR HYDROLOGY . DJ/DBR EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 35 mi29 min SW 16 G 19 73°F 73°F1006.6 hPa68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi51 min SW 8.9 G 11 80°F 76°F1005.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi51 min SW 7 G 11 84°F 76°F1005.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 43 mi51 min 79°F 70°F1006.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi29 min SSW 14 G 16 76°F 73°F1006.5 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 48 mi54 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 82°F 1 ft68°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY5 mi1.8 hrsSW 14 G 2010.00 miFair83°F66°F57%1006.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY9 mi43 minSSW 13 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds84°F64°F53%1006.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY21 mi43 minSW 14 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F66°F55%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS7S5S4SE3CalmSE3E3CalmE4E4SE4E3E5E56E6E8E6E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Potunk Point, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York
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Potunk Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:14 AM EDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:29 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:51 PM EDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.30.40.50.50.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.50.50.40.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:03 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:26 AM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.110.70.1-0.6-1-1.3-1.2-1-0.7-0.10.61.11.10.90.5-0.2-0.7-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.40.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.