Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manila, CA

DISCUSSION
Generally, rain has ended for Del Norte County, but will continue to move southeast through the region. Rain totals for Del Norte County were mostly between 0.5 inches and 1 inch over the last 24 hours. Rain totals (0.2 to 0.5 inches) are expected to be less for Humboldt County with higher totals in northern and coastal parts of the county. Lighter precipitation is forecast for Trinity and Northern Mendocino Co. Trace amounts of rain (<0.10")
are expected for Lake and southern Mendocino Co. Rain will taper off by this evening with the front exiting the region by tonight.

Strong southerly winds continue to rapidly switch northerly throughout the region as the front moves through. In general, coastal areas and higher terrain locations will be gustier.
Tonight, and especially tomorrow afternoon, strong northerlies will develop in Lake County, especially for the higher terrain areas.

After frontal passage, much colder and drier air will advect over the region. In response, snow levels drop down to ~1,500ft for Trinity Co. and ~2,00ft for Humboldt Co. This drop is not expected to create much snow as much of the precipitation will be over by this time. What this colder air will do is increase the likelihood for frost/freeze conditions for the entire area on Thursday and Friday. NBM data shows the interior valleys are forecasted to get colder than 30F Thursday and Friday mornings. As growing season begins, it is recommended to cover sensitive plants and take other precautions to protect agricultural property these mornings.
Thursday morning, Freeze Warnings have been issued for some of the coldest interior valleys, along with Frost Advisories for most coastal areas.

The GFS and ECMWF are both signaling for another frontal storm arriving this weekend. The GFS ensemble shows light rain Sunday with heavier rain possible on Monday. The EPS shows almost the same, with rain beginning on Saturday evening. What these models also show is more widespread rainfall over the area with precipitation accumulations up to 0.50" in Lake and southern Mendocino counties.
DS&JLW



AVIATION
A front continues to move through the region into tonight. Periods of MVFR to IFR conditions could be possible at terminals were light to moderate rainfall occurs. Gusty northerlies are expected for coastal and higher terrain terminals into tonight. As the front continues out of the region very late tonight and into Thursday morning, drier and colder air is expected to overtake the region. Clouds should dissipate and VFR conditions should ensue throughout the region by Thursday morning.



MARINE
Winds continue to rapidly shift around to N and NW behind the passing front. There are indications from the NWPS model of localized pockets of steep waves from 6 to 8 feet mostly north of Trinidad this evening for the inner and outer waters.
Therefore an advisory has been issued even with limited areal coverage of steep waves over 6 ft. Just about all the mesoscale models have gusts over 21 kt over a sufficiently large enough area to warrant an advisory for small craft. Northerly winds strengthen and steep waves build this evening and overnight, especially south of Cape Mendo. Thus, an advisory has been posted for the inner waters south of Cape Mendo. Gale force winds will be possible (20% chance) as early as this evening. Greater coverage and longer duration of gale gusts holds off until Thu afternoon and evening - per the HRRR. A Gale Warning has been hoisted for the southern waters. Seas will build to max heights Thu afternoon thru Thu night. Steep waves are projected to reach 11-13 feet for the southern waters and 9-11 feet in the northern waters. Seas may remain steep and elevated on Fri; however a downward trend will commence and continue into Sat. Another front will approach over the weekend and could bring another bout of gusty winds.



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ101-103-104-109-112.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ102-105>108-110-111-113>115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ450-470.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455.

Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475.

Gale Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475.