Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baxter Estates, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 5:54PM Sunday March 7, 2021 3:58 PM EST (20:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:43AMMoonset 12:52PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 317 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 317 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure system north of the area today shifts overhead tomorrow. The system then drops south of long island and offshore through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baxter Estates, NY
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location: 40.83, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 072030 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 330 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure ridge north of the Great Lakes centers itself over New England early Monday. The high sinks south late Monday into Tuesday as a weak trough passes to the north. A cold front approaches from the west Friday and becomes stationary south of the area by Saturday night. Unsettled weather will continue through next weekend as another system approaches from the OH Valley, with a cool down in temperatures, as well.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Subsidence aloft will keep the area cloudless in the near term. A high pressure system over the Great Lakes continues to force dry air with dew points in the teens and single digits into southern New York through tonight and into tomorrow morning. Winds should remain around 5-10 mph out of the northwest overnight light enough for ample radiative cooling. The clear skies should allow for temperatures to dive once nightfall takes hold. Around the city temperatures are in the mid 20s with low 20s along Long Island and the Connecticut coastline. Further inland within the Lower Hudson Valley could see temperatures in the mid to upper teens.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/.

Overhead ridging keeps southern New York dry again for most of the day Monday. It's likely that the skies remain clear through most of the morning and into the afternoon. Relative humidity values a loft are bone dry in the single digits above 900 mb. Needless to say rain chances remain near zero through the afternoon. Ambient temperatures should be slightly higher than the previous day in the low 40s.

Late Monday night into Tuesday morning a weak upper level trough moves through northern New York following the flow of a 120kt jet max north of the Great Lakes. This trough brings some residual Pacific moisture which may increase the cloudiness overnight. With the winds shifting more southerly and the additional clouds acting as a blanket to the outgoing radiation, temperatures should hold around 10 degrees above the previous days lows in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Not much change in the forecast thinking for the beginning of the extended period. A shortwave trough passes well north of the area on Tuesday dragging through a weak cold front. Without much moisture to work with and the area away from the best lift, just some additional cloud cover expected Tuesday morning. Thereafter, surface high pressure and rising heights aloft build east, with a warming trend through Friday under southerly flow.

CPC ensemble mean forecasts continue to show convergence on a return to a positive NAO into the week. Guidance has held steady with 850mb temperatures of 8-10C+ Wednesday through Friday. One change this cycle as been for the ridge to be a bit slower to move east on Friday, thus maintaining southwesterly flow for much of the day. As a result, and if increased cloud cover doesn't mitigate it too much, Friday looks to be another warm day before a cool down this weekend.

A bit less spread today in the NBM/NBP temperature percentiles so continued to use its temperatures and adjust up between the 75th and 90th percentiles. This gave highs in the mid/upper 50s for coastal locations and lower/mid 60s elsewhere Wednesday-Friday. This is in line with, or a degree or two cooler, than MOSGuide. With SSTs in the low 40s across the ocean waters, coupled with the southerly wind component, coastal areas will not get as warm as the interior, and remain in the mid 50s Wednesday through Friday. As we have mentioned previously, at this time no record highs are in jeopardy with record highs in the upper 60s and 70s for the climate locations.

By Friday afternoon, the ridge shifts to the east of the area with an upper trough passing over New England. Model guidance has come into a bit better agreement with respect to the timing of this system, and shows a cold front associated with the upper low passing through on Friday night. The front moves through quick, and will bring precipitation chances for the whole area Friday afternoon into the evening, albeit light. The front then stalls to our south as zonal flow aloft commences, and a deeper closed low takes shape across the Central Plains and moves east by Sunday. Cold advection behind the front will drop temperatures to more seasonable into Sunday. The stalled boundary remains just south of the area Sunday as a surface low develops over the OH Valley, keeping the area in clouds and light precipitation chances Sunday. Temperatures may be marginally cold enough Sunday morning for a rain/snow mix across the interior, but plenty of time, still, to work out those details.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Weakening low pressure over eastern Canada will retreat to the northeast, while high pressure builds in from the west through Monday.

NW winds around 10 kt gradually veer to the NNW at 5-10kt this evening. Winds then veer to the W/SW Monday afternoon.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

A few gusts 15-18kt early. Winds will be mainly right of 310 magnetic, but will vary at times due to the close proximity of a surface trough.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday Afternoon through Wednesday. VFR. Thursday. Mainly VFR. S-SW gusts 15-20 kt. Friday. Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE.

Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday as high pressure dominates. By Thursday afternoon, strengthening southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in ocean seas to near 5 ft and gusts 25-30kts. Ocean seas will remain elevated into Saturday afternoon, with 5-7ft waves and occasional gusts to 30kts before diminishing late Saturday. Ocean seas begin to build again on Sunday evening, with occasional gusts to 25 kts.

HYDROLOGY. There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/DBR NEAR TERM . DJ SHORT TERM . DJ LONG TERM . DBR AVIATION . DW MARINE . DJ/DBR HYDROLOGY . DJ/DBR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi58 min N 6 G 8.9 37°F 1026.2 hPa (-1.4)
44022 - Execution Rocks 4 mi43 min NW 7.8 G 14 39°F 17°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi58 min 39°F 38°F1025.7 hPa (-1.4)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi58 min WNW 8 G 13 38°F 1025.4 hPa (-1.4)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi82 min 39°F 1025.3 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi58 min W 5.1 G 11
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi58 min W 7 G 8 37°F 1026.3 hPa (-1.5)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi38 min W 9.7 G 12 42°F1025.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi58 min N 6 G 8 37°F 37°F1024.7 hPa (-1.2)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi38 min WNW 9.7 G 14 41°F1025.2 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi67 minNNW 1010.00 miFair40°F13°F33%1025.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY12 mi67 minNNW 1010.00 miFair41°F13°F32%1025.7 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi67 minW 12 G 1810.00 miFair40°F13°F33%1025.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi65 minno data10.00 miFair40°F14°F35%1025.5 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi62 minWNW 1110.00 miFair36°F11°F35%1025.4 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ19 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair40°F17°F40%1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLGA

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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NW16N6N6NW8NW7W13
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NW10NW10NW10NW11NW13NW10NW14NW13NW9NW7
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1 day agoW23
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Port Washington
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:33 AM EST     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:23 AM EST     7.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:52 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:33 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:23 PM EST     6.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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111.93.85.76.87.17.16.44.93.11.810.30.31.53.55.266.46.35.33.72.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:12 AM EST     0.89 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:44 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:52 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:40 PM EST     0.91 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:59 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:02 PM EST     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:28 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.30-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.100.30.80.90.50.2-0-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.2-0.10.1

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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