Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hampton Bays, NY

KEY MESSAGES

1) The next potential window for strong to severe thunderstorms will be Sunday late afternoon and evening.

2) Minor coastal flooding chances this weekend and into early next week (Sun-Mon) for the evening high tides.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
For Sunday, a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes region will extend a pair of shortwave troughs toward the East Coast.
The first shortwave will support the development of a low pressure system along the coast, which will give the area its next round of shower and storm activity. The second shortwave will support a surface cold front on Sunday night that will end the storm threat. The environment ahead of these features will be more marginal than the last several days as temperatures will only just get to 90 degrees and surface dew points will only reach the mid 60s, so the instability will be limited. However, this setup could allow for more upper level support to organize storms. In the end, the threat appears low end at this time and the area is currently under a Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe weather from SPC.

KEY MESSAGE 2
With the upcoming new moon phase later in the weekend, astronomical tide levels will gradually increase. Also, with an increasing onshore flow this weekend the forecast surge is expected to increase and total water levels could reach just beyond minor coastal flood benchmarks during times of high tide. This is particularly true for later Sunday. Any minor coastal flooding could linger into early next week for the evening high tides.

With both Long Island Sound and western South Shore Bay locations, and potentially some Eastern Suffolk gauges showing possible minor coastal flooding, coastal flood advisories may be needed in subsequent forecast updates for later in the weekend. For the time being coastal flood statements are in effect for the potential for isolated minor coastal flooding during high tide this evening and during Saturday evening / night for the Southern Nassau South Shore Bays as well as the Southern Fairfield CT shoreline.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A cold front moves through this evening. High pressure builds in from the west late tonight into Saturday.

VFR outside any showers and thunderstorms. A few lingering showers at eastern terminals this evening, mainly KISP, KBDR, and KGON. Brief MVFR vsbys possible here thru 2Z. Drying conditions with clearing skies behind the fropa tonight.

A general W-WNW wind shifts NW over the next several hours, speeds as high as 10-15 kt. NW flow continues much of Saturday, backing SW or S at coastal sites into the afternoon. Speeds around 10 kt or less thru the TAF, though gusts 15-18 kt possible at a few sites Saturday afternoon.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts up to 15-18 kt possible Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday Night: VFR. Winds mainly NW to W.

Sunday: Mainly VFR initially. Then, showers becoming more probable afternoon into night with MVFR or lower possible at times.
Thunderstorms are possible as well. S-SW wind gusts near 20-25 kt afternoon into evening. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.

Monday: VFR. Possible W-SW wind gusts up to 20 kt afternoon into early evening.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mostly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions later in the day and towards evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Light flow of 5 to 15 kts is expected through Saturday and Small Craft Advisory headlines are not expected at this time. Winds will be southwesterly through this evening before shifting to the northwest behind a cold front.

There is potential for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday into Sunday night with increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front. This will likely be real marginal and mainly for the ocean waters, with 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft seas.

Winds will become northwest behind the cold front on Monday at 10 to 15 kts and decreasing. Light flow of 5 to 15 kts will be expected for Monday night and Small Craft Advisory headlines are not expected at this time.

Rip Currents...

The rip current risk overall will be low on Saturday with a west to northwest wind generally up to 10 kt and a lingering 2 ft southerly swell. By Sunday the rip current risk climbs to moderate for the Suffolk beaches, with a high risk developing during the afternoon for the NYC and Nassau beaches, mainly due to an increasing S wind up to around 15 kt. A high risk may develop very late in the day for the Suffolk beaches as well.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

June 12: KEWR: 97/2017 KBDR: 93/2017 KNYC: 93/2017 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 91/2017

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 12: KEWR: 74/1973 KBDR: 69/1973 KNYC: 76/2017 KLGA: 76/2017 KJFK: 73/1970 KISP: 70/1973

June 13: KEWR: 74/2005 KBDR: 71/2017 KNYC: 77/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 72/2017 KISP: 70/1969

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ078>081- 177-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.