Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Norwich, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:26PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 10:45 AM EDT (14:45 UTC) Moonrise 7:03PMMoonset 6:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1028 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Chance of tstms. Showers.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1028 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves offshore today. A low pressure system approaches tonight and moves across on Wednesday. Another low and its associated cold front cross the region on Thursday. This low will pull away into the canadian maritimes on Friday, followed by high pressure building from the plains states through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Norwich, NY
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location: 40.85, -73.52     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 071419 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1019 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure moves offshore today followed by the approach of a warm front from the southwest tonight. A low pressure system will ride along the front and move across the region on Wednesday. Another low and its associated cold front cross the region on Thursday. This low will pull away into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, followed by high pressure building from the Plains states through much of the weekend. The next frontal system and low pressure may impact the area Sunday night into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Have made updates mainly to the cloud cover forecast. Mid level clouds continue to develop over the forecast area before pushing SE. Models show 700mb moisture shifting south, so expecting more in the way of sunshine once again this afternoon.

High pressure moves offshore today setting up a return S-SW flow in the afternoon. The forecast is dry through the early evening as any precipitation should stay well to the SW along a warm front. Mainly high clouds will increase late in the day from south to north.

High temperatures will be in the lower 60s for much of the area, and may reach the middle 60s north and west of the NYC metro. Temperatures likely remain steady or slowly fall in the late afternoon along the immediate coast due to the onshore flow.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. The aforementioned warm front will approach from the SW tonight. At the same time, low pressure across the Great Lakes will track along the approaching warm front. Have generally followed a consensus of the latest high resolution guidance regarding timing of precipitation tonight. This supports scaling back PoPs for the first half of the night. As the low nears and the warm front settles close to the area early Wednesday morning, the probability for showers will increase to likely from west to east. The high resolution guidance, mainly the 00z NAM and 00z RGEM, show the warm front near the southern portion of the area, with the low riding along it early Wednesday morning. The 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF are further south and west with the warm front and track the low mainly south of the region. Have sided closer to the high resolution model track and have added mention of thunder mainly for the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, NYC metro and western Long Island. In either case, instability would be elevated with any surface based CAPE located SW of the area. The latest day 1 SPC convective outlook has the area highlighted above in a general risk for thunder, with the severe weather risk well to the SW. The risk of thunder is relatively brief and mainly from around 08z-12z. Average rainfall amounts are light and generally only a few tenths of an inch.

The low will push to the south and east of Long Island late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. The highest probability of showers is in the early morning, with decreasing chances for the rest of the day. The low will likely pushes the frontal boundary to the south. There should be some partial clearing in the afternoon. Highs will range from the lower 50s out east to the upper 50s and lower 60s from the NYC metro on west.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. A brief middle and upper ridge axis will move overhead Wednesday night. By Thursday morning, a vigorous upper level low will be diving southeast out of southern Canada. This upper low will send a strong cold front towards the area Thursday morning. On the leading edge of the upper low will be a potent vort max. The dynamics and kinematics with this system are quite impressive and as the front nears Thursday morning, strong synoptic scale lift will take place. This area of dynamics will quickly race across the area from late morning through the afternoon. Instability is marginal per the latest guidance, but feel the dynamics aloft may be able to overcome this and produce thunder within a band of moderate to locally heavy showers.

The front moves offshore in the evening and dry weather returns Thursday evening as the low quickly moves off to the northeast. As the deep vertically stacked low pulls away, a trailing sfc trough should move across on Friday with isold-sct showers. Brisk W-NW winds nearing advy criteria may also be possible by late morning and afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of this trough, also after its passage via enhanced downward motion/momentum transfer. Fairly brisk winds should last into Fri night and Sat morning, then diminish on Sat as the high passes overhead.

A return S flow should become established Sat night into Sunday between the departing/strengthening high, and a srn stream wave of low pressure lifting out of the TN Valley, with increasing rain chances late Sat night into Sunday. Strong S winds may be possible between the two systems on Sunday especially at the coast as a long S fetch and tight pressure gradient develop. The associated enhanced low level warmth/moisture transport could also lead to locally heavy rain and isolated thunder, more so across S CT and Long Island.

Some showers may linger into Mon morning if not longer as the system pulls away. How quickly it pulls away depends on the amt of srn/nrn stream interaction at that time, which is uncertain.

Temperatures will remain near normal on Thursday. Temps at least a few degrees below normal on Friday should get a little closer to normal on Sat from NYC north/west, then range a few degrees above normal throughout Sunday into Mon.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure builds across the area today. An area of low pressure approaches tonight.

VFR through today. West winds becoming SW and eventually S today, around 10-12 kts.

Conditions deteriorate tonight to MVFR or lower with rain late. Winds will be light but could be higher than forecast in any heavier shower. Showers will come to an end by daybreak, but ceilings will be slow to lift and MVFR may prevail through 18Z.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Wednesday. MVFR to IFR with showers. Thursday. Becoming VFR with showers ending. Possible LLWS. Friday. VFR. Saturday. VFR and breezy.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to remain on all waters through Wednesday night.

A cold front will approach the waters on Thursday increasing wind gusts to SCA levels. Ocean seas will also build to 5 feet by Thursday night and to 5-7 ft during the day on Friday before gradually subsiding Friday night. W-NW gales may be possible on Friday, especially near shore and also on the outer ocean waters.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend.

Basin avg rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch is possible from late Sunday into next Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A coastal flood statement remains for tonight's high tide has for Lower New York Harbor, south shore back bays of western Long Island, and for locations adjacent to western Long Island Sound. The coastal flood statement has also been extended through Wednesday morning/early afternoon high tide for the same locations except locations adjacent to western Long Island Sound in northern Nassau and northwest Suffolk. Additional statements and/or advisories are likely through Wednesday night.

Astronomical tides will be increasing through Wednesday due to a full moon (supermoon). There could be a few locations that get close tonight into Wednesday morning/early afternoon. Much of the guidance continues to point toward Wednesday night having the greatest potential for widespread minor and even localized moderate flooding.

Most locations during this time need anywhere from 1/2 to 1 1/2 ft of surge to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks. During this time, there is little in the way of wind forcing or tidal piling. The main factor will be the high astronomical tides and background positive tidal anomaly.

Minor coastal flooding is also possible on Thursday as astronomical tides remain high. There will also be a strong cold front passage that may bring a bit stronger wind forcing.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DS NEAR TERM . JC/DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . FEB/Goodman/DS AVIATION . MARINE . CB HYDROLOGY . DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 8 mi60 min S 3.9 G 5.8 50°F 42°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 11 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 53°F 32°F36°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi45 min N 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 55°F1015.5 hPa (+0.0)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi45 min 54°F 48°F1015.1 hPa (+0.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 29 mi45 min SSW 5.1 G 6 52°F 49°F1014.3 hPa (+0.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi45 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 55°F 1015.1 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi25 min W 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 1015.2 hPa39°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi45 min 56°F 50°F1015.2 hPa (+0.0)
MHRN6 37 mi45 min NW 4.1 G 6
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 37 mi45 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 54°F 51°F1015.7 hPa (+0.0)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi45 min SW 7 G 8 50°F 47°F1014.1 hPa (+0.0)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi55 min 5.8 G 5.8 49°F 46°F3 ft1015.1 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY10 mi52 minVar 410.00 miFair58°F30°F35%1015.1 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY19 mi49 minWNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F30°F41%1014.6 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY19 mi54 minNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F34°F42%1015.3 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi54 minNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F33°F42%1014.9 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi49 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F27°F31%1014.7 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair56°F30°F37%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE96
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NW10NE5NW7NW10W8S11SW11SW9SW7W5CalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmW3W3NW64
1 day agoSE5S5SE6SE6SE8SE9SE8S9SE5SE5E3SE4NE3CalmN3N6N4N6N8N4N6N9N8N9
2 days agoN13N11N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:07 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:18 PM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.6-0.20.10.40.91.20.80.3-0-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.4-00.30.71.110.50-0.3-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.