Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelham Manor, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Heat advisory remains in effect for much of the region Thursday through Friday with hot and humid conditions expected.

2) There is a risk for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding during the late afternoon and evening hours through Friday.

3) Still hot but not as humid for the weekend, temperatures cool off more early next week. Multiple chances of showers and possible thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
An upper ridge will briefly re-establish itself over the region on Thursday and again on Friday behind any storms that move through on Thursday evening. This will be ahead of an upper level trough, which will support a surface low pressure system that will move through the region on Friday night. In the warm sector of this system, 850 mb temperatures will surge toward the 20 C mark, translating to surface temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile, there will be an increase in moisture across the region with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Together, this will allow for Heat Index Values to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s for Thursday and Friday, and the Heat Advisory remains valid for much of the area.
Temperatures and heat index values will remain muted in the lower to mid 80s for coastal SE CT and Eastern Long Island, and these areas will remain out of the Heat Advisory.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Airmass becomes much more unstable on Thursday with high heat and humidity (dew points around 70). Confidence is increasing for a complex of showers and thunderstorms to move in from the NW during the late afternoon and evening hour. High CAPE environment with mid level lapse rates around 6.5C will support deep convection. Shear is marginal but may be just enough to support cold pool maintenance. Isolated pulse severe is the main threat with some small bowing segments possible. While temperatures are warm aloft, deep convection will warrant a large hail threat in addition to damaging wind gusts. SPC has a slight risk with isolated to scattered coverage. WPC has included the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, which is localized flash flood threat. High PW values around 2" along with deep convection favor high rainfall rates. Max hourly rainfall rate look to be about 2 inches.

Friday will feature another high CAPE, weak shear day with evening showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.
Flash flood threat looks isolated at this time.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Still hot for the weekend with quite a few locations reaching highs in the lower 90s but post cold front, dewpoints will be lower. Airmass will become less humid. Heat indices max values stay near 90 or less. Unsettled weather pattern establishes itself, nearly zonal mid level flow. Periodic low pressure disturbances with periodic chances of showers heading into early next week.

AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A weak warm front continues to push north of the area along with weak disturbances tonight, and once again late Thursday.

Cigs continue to lower tonight, but confidence is decreasing for terminals east of ISP and KBDR. FOR KISP, KBDR and KGON, IFR or lower is still possible. Elsewhere may only lower to MVFR.
Improvements in cigs possible toward 12-13Z with VFR returning at some point Thursday morning.

Winds again subside tonight to around 5-10kt, becoming more SW by Thursday morning. Mainly W winds during the day Thursday with gusts to around 20 kt at a few terminals.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Confidence is decreasing in lowering cigs tonight. KTEB and KEWR may stay VFR. KJFK and KLGA likely at least lower to MVFR.

Amendments more likely overnight into early Thu AM due to flight cat changes / timing.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday afternoon-Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times with chances of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening, otherwise VFR.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR.

Sunday night: Sub VFR possible in shra /tsra.

Monday: A period of MVFR possible in shra / tsra, otherwise mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA issued for the ocean waters tonight with marginal conditions southerly with southwest winds gusting up to 25 kt and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Wind and seas will gradually subside after midnight as winds weaken.

Otherwise mainly sub-SCA much of the remainder of the forecast.
There could be some potential SCA conditions returning to some of the waters towards the end of the weekend.

Rip Currents...

For Thursday, there is a moderate rip current risk with SW winds around 10 kt and surf around 3 ft.

For Friday, the risk is low with with SW-S winds around 10 kt and surf heights around 2 ft.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

June 11: KEWR: 96/2000 KBDR: 93/1984 KNYC: 95/1973 KLGA: 96/1984 KJFK: 93/1984 KISP: 93/1973

June 12: KEWR: 97/2017 KBDR: 93/2017 KNYC: 93/2017 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 91/2017

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 11: KEWR: 77/1984 KBDR: 71/2008 KNYC: 78/1984 KLGA: 76/1973 KJFK: 76/1984 KISP: 71/1984

June 12: KEWR: 74/1973 KBDR: 69/1973 KNYC: 76/2017 KLGA: 76/2017 KJFK: 73/1970 KISP: 70/1973

June 13: KEWR: 74/2005 KBDR: 71/2017 KNYC: 77/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 72/2017 KISP: 70/1969

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005>010.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.