Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pelham Manor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:29PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 7:13 AM EDT (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 8:21PMMoonset 7:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 558 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
.gale watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late this morning and early afternoon, then becoming E late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 558 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes across the waters this morning with weak high pressure to follow. A cold front approaches and moves through on Thursday. An associated low will pull away into the canadian maritimes on Friday, followed by high pressure building from the west on Saturday. Low pressure will then approach from the west on Sunday and impact the area Sunday night into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelham Manor village, NY
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location: 40.85, -73.81     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 080958 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 558 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure moves offshore today. A cold front approaches and moves through on Thursday. An associated low will pull away into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, followed by high pressure building from the west on Saturday. Low pressure will then approach from the west on Sunday and impact the area Sunday night into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Based on radar and observations, adjusted PoPs down with this update as showers have pushed east and will continue moving offshore this morning. A few light showers are possible again this afternoon as another wave moves across the region. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

There will still be plenty of moisture below 10,000 feet resulting in a partly to mostly cloudy sky today. Some clearing may occur later in the day as winds favor a more north/northwesterly direction. This will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Weak ridging will result in a quiet night ahead of another system which will impact the region during the day on Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 40s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

On Thursday, a strong shortwave will dive out of the Great Lakes with a surface low tracking out of Canada into the northeast. This low will drag a strong cold front through the area, likely sometime from late morning through the mid afternoon. A strong jet developing just to the south will provide deep-layer shear and strong lift, however instability continues to look marginal at this time. Even with low CAPE, strong dynamics aloft will likely result in a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms moving through in the early afternoon. The biggest threat with these showers and storms would be gusty winds.

Immediately following the frontal passage, the sky will clear and we should mix out. BUFKIT soundings are indicating a period of gusty winds of 30 to 35 mph during the afternoon and into the overnight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. To start, expect brisk conds on Fri, with isold-sct showers as low pressure pulls away. Inland sections especially the higher elevations could see some snow mixed in during the morning. W-NW winds will be on the brisk side due to the departing low's tight pres gradient, so expect winds at or near advy criteria in the greater NYC metro area and across Long Island, and possibly elsewhere.

High pressure then builds across Sat into Sat night. Guidance shows more nrn stream interaction with a srn stream low pressure system approaching for Sunday into Mon, and so have gone with its slower trend. That guidance is also decidedly wetter and windier, which makes sense given the strengthening offshore high and long S fetch, at least per ECMWF. GFS fcsts a secondary low to develop along the coast which, if it develops, would probably result in a stout E-SE rather than S flow. Given the very good warmth/moisture transport via either a S fetch or enhanced convergence/lift via a secondary low, heavy rain also looks like a good bet, with axis of heaviest rain a little to early to know for certain.

Temps about 5-8 deg below normal on Fri, with highs in the lower/mid 50s, will moderate somewhat on Sat to mid/upper 50s, still slightly below avg. Temps on Sunday/Mon ahead of the approaching low should warm up, with upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday, and 60s to lower 70s on Mon, highest away from the coast.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Low pressure will track over or just south of the terminals this morning.

This will result in a period of rain and MVFR/IFR ceilings through the morning with improvement to VFR by afternoon.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty with wind direction through around 12Z due to the low track with significant variability possible, although under 10 kt. A N-NE wind at 5-10 kt develops behind the low and then back to NW in the afternoon before seabreeze develop at the coastal terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wed night. Mainly VFR, becoming MVFR late. Thu. MVFR in the mrng, becoming VFR. LLWS possible in the mrng. Fri. VFR with W winds 20-30kt g35-40kt. Sat-Sun. VFR.

MARINE. Weak low pressure will pass across the waters this morning with weak high pressure to follow. This will result in a weak flow through tonight with sub-SCA conditions.

A strong frontal system will then impact the waters on Thursday, preceded by a strengthening southerly that will likely bring at a minimum SCA conditions to the ocean waters by late morning. This will be short-lived though as a strong cold front works across the waters in the afternoon with the potential for westerly gusts to approach gale force.

As low pressure rapidly deepens over northern New England Thursday night, westerly gales will likely develop across all waters and continue into Friday with gusts up to 40 kt.

Wind will gradually diminish Friday night into Saturday with SCA conditions for much of the period. High pressure will build across the waters Saturday night.

Increasing S flow between a strengthening offshore high and approaching low pressure may bring SCA conds to all waters Sunday night. Some gale force wind gusts may be possible on the ocean waters late.

FIRE WEATHER. Wetting rains on Thu should help limit fire growth potential on Fri despite strong winds and low afternoon RH. With some drying out Sat could be a day of concern, with W winds still gusting to 30 mph and min RH 20-30%.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected from the showers impacting the area this morning.

A quarter to a half an inch of rain is expected Thursday, but locally higher amounts could be realized. Low chance of minor nuisance flooding on Thursday.

QPF for the low pressure system Sunday night into Mon has trended wetter, with amts of 1-2 inches fcst. This may be capable of causing some minor areal and small stream issues.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High astronomical tides due to the supermoon and a positive tidal anomaly will be factors for the total water level forecast through Wednesday. Winds will not be strong, about a 10 kt onshore flow or less, so tidal piling and wind forcing will not be too much, limiting the coastal flood potential.

Hazards are as follows:

Tonight through Wednesday: Coastal flood statements across much of the shorelines of NY Harbor, Western Long Island Sound, and South Shore Bays. The total water level will be around 1/2 to 1 foot above astronomical tides, so about 1/2 to 1 foot of surge during times of high tide. Isolated minor coastal flooding will be the result.

Wednesday Night: Coastal flood advisories for the more vulnerable coastal locations across NY Harbor, Western Long Island Sound, South Shore Bays and SW Suffolk NY. The total water level will be 1 to 2 feet above astronomical tides, so about 1 to 2 feet of surge during times of high tide. Widespread minor coastal flooding will be the result. Other nearby locations such as Eastern Union NJ, Eastern Essex NJ, Manhattan, Bronx, Northern Queens will get close to touching minor coastal flood benchmarks. These less exposed coastal locations have a coastal flood statement for Wednesday night, more of an isolated minor coastal flood situation.

Minor coastal flooding potential remains on Thursday with astronomical tides still being high. There will also be a strong cold front approaching that will bring increased onshore winds during the day. Much lower total water levels occur Thursday night into Friday as winds strengthen out of the west, a stronger offshore flow overall. Any lingering coastal flood threat diminishes rapidly Thursday night.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ009-010. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ071-078-177. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ074-075-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ080. NJ . Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006. MARINE . Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . CB/Goodman NEAR TERM . CB SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . CB/Goodman AVIATION . DW MARINE . Goodman/DW FIRE WEATHER . HYDROLOGY . CB/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi55 min E 4.1 G 7 49°F 56°F997.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 5 mi43 min NE 14 G 18 47°F 32°F47°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 14 mi83 min E 14 G 18 47°F 1 ft45°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 15 mi55 min 55°F 49°F997.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi55 min S 9.9 G 11 54°F 996.6 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 23 mi55 min 55°F 50°F997.1 hPa
MHRN6 24 mi55 min SW 8 G 12
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi55 min SSW 9.9 G 11 55°F 52°F997.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 34 mi33 min SSW 9.7 G 12 51°F 997.6 hPa50°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 40 mi55 min ENE 4.1 G 8 47°F 51°F997.9 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY6 mi22 minNE 94.00 miFog/Mist50°F46°F86%998.7 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY10 mi22 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist55°F53°F93%998.5 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ13 mi22 minN 55.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist52°F50°F93%998.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY13 mi22 minW 107.00 miOvercast54°F54°F100%998.7 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi17 minENE 42.00 miFog/Mist47°F45°F93%998.4 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ21 mi22 minWNW 77.00 miOvercast55°F54°F96%998.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi20 minN 63.00 miFog/Mist52°F48°F89%998.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLGA

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NW7NW4NW6NW6CalmSW5SW11S17S15
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S12S11S8S7S5S5S4S4E6CalmCalmE7NE9
1 day agoN5N10N8N14NW7NW5N4NW6NW9NW11
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2 days agoSE5SE5NE5NE5NE5S4E8S6S7S10S9S9S6S4CalmNE3NE6NE7NE7NE5E6NE4N5N6

Tide / Current Tables for City Island, New York
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City Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     -1.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:25 PM EDT     8.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     -1.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.88.46.94.31.6-0.3-1.2-1.3-0.32.15.27.48.38.27.35.32.50.3-0.8-1-0.41.54.67.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:29 AM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:56 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.10.20.511.20.70.2-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.300.30.81.20.90.4-0-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.