Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelham Manor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:10PM Saturday October 19, 2019 3:22 PM EDT (19:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:14PMMoonset 12:42PM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1252 Pm Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the evening.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 1252 Pm Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure shifts through the waters today and heads farther out to sea tonight. Low pres is then forecast to track well south of the region Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure follows for Monday before a frontal system moves across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure follows for Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelham Manor village, NY
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location: 40.85, -73.81     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191813
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
213 pm edt Sat oct 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains in control of the weather today and tonight.

Tropical storm nestor is then forecast to track well south of the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. A weak high pressure ridge
otherwise remains over us Monday into Tuesday. A cold front then
follows for Tuesday night with a return to high pressure through
late in the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast remains on track.

A high pressure ridge will shift through the region today. Sunny
conditions and light winds along with high temperatures at or
slightly below normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
With the ridge to our east, cirrus begins to stream in from the
west. There's uncertainty regarding how quickly it shifts in and the
implications on potential frost formation. Have gone with areas of
frost for most of the northernmost portions of the forecast area as
well as the pine barrens region, but will hold off on issuing a
frost advisory until there is more confidence regarding the cloud
and temperature forecast.

Clouds continue to thicken on Sunday in advance of tropical storm
nestor. The center of this storm is still forecast to pass well to
our south Sunday night, however associated moisture does stream
northward towards us. Have increased rain chances from the previous
forecast based on model trends, but leaned away from the NAM as it
was the northernmost and wettest outlier. For the latest official
track and intensity forecast, refer to the latest advisories from
nhc. Expecting a light to moderate rainfall from this, mainly from
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Long term Monday through Friday
Weak high pressure returns for Monday with dry weather, then a cold
front approaches for Tuesday. This will bring increasing chances of
rainfall as the day progress, then the highest overall chance of
rain occurs at night with the frontal passage. A weak area of low
pressure may develop along the front, which could help to enhance
the precipitation as the system becomes negatively tilted. However
there are timing differences in when this system becomes negatively
tilted, and thus uncertainty in where and when any heavier
precipitation falls.

High pressure builds in and dominates the weather pattern with
dry weather to close the week. Temperatures will be a slightly
above normal for Thursday and Friday as well.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Vfr conditions with light winds less than 10kt tonight as high
pressure settles over the area terminals. High pressure will
begin to push offshore Sunday morning allowing for MVFR
conditions to develop due to light rain and CIGS across nyc
terminals as tropical storm nestor approaches. Light e-ne flow
should develop after 12z Sunday then increase to around 10kt by
Sunday afternoon.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday-Monday MVFR or lower possible through Sunday night,
then improving toVFR by Monday.

Tuesday Showers likely, especially late day and at night
with MVFR or lower conditions.

Wednesday BecomingVFR.

Thursday Vfr conditions.

Marine
High pressure with a weak pressure gradient will sustain relatively
tranquil conditions over all waters today and tonight, as well as
most of Sunday. Low pressure remnants of tropical storm nestor
emerges off the mid-atlantic coast on Sunday and is still expected
to pass well SE of the waters Sunday night into Monday. There is
uncertainty regarding how closely it approaches and therefore how
strong winds eventually get during the Sunday night-Monday period.

Will go with marginal SCA conds at least on the ocean waters
starting Sunday afternoon, but given the aforementioned uncertainty,
will hold off on issuing a SCA as this would be beginning late in
the 3rd period of the forecast.

A lingering easterly swell may then maintain 5ft+ seas through
Tuesday on the ocean. Winds otherwise diminish somewhat during this
period. A cold front then moves through Tuesday night with westerly
winds close to SCA conds during Wednesday mainly on the ocean.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected with the rainfall Sunday into
Sunday night as rain totals are expected to be around a quarter of
an inch or less. Rain is anticipated for Tuesday into Tuesday night,
but rain amounts and potential impacts are uncertain at this
time.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi52 min NW 5.1 G 8 57°F 61°F1017.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 5 mi37 min SSW 7.8 G 12 57°F 32°F38°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 14 mi62 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 37°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 15 mi52 min 58°F 62°F1017.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi52 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1 56°F 1017.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 23 mi58 min 60°F 62°F1017.2 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi52 min WNW 6 G 8 56°F 59°F1017.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 34 mi32 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 54°F 62°F1 ft1017.5 hPa43°F
44069 40 mi52 min WSW 14 G 16 53°F 56°F44°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 40 mi52 min SW 8 G 16

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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G36
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY6 mi31 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F34°F38%1016.8 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY10 mi31 minVar 410.00 miFair59°F35°F41%1016.9 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ13 mi31 minW 510.00 miFair61°F37°F41%1016.4 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY13 mi31 minSSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds57°F41°F55%1017.5 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi86 minNW 510.00 miFair57°F33°F41%1017 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ21 mi31 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F37°F40%1016.7 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi29 minSSW 1010.00 miFair56°F39°F53%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLGA

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW19
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NW16NW16
G25
NW15NW12NW11NW12N7NW11NW9N6N5N5NW5NW4W3W6NW3SW4W7CalmW54
1 day agoW21
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2 days agoE15
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G24
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G35
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G30
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G33
W26
G41
W23
G34

Tide / Current Tables for City Island, New York
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City Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:01 AM EDT     7.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:12 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:16 PM EDT     8.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.84.76.67.36.96.15.13.51.80.91.223.24.96.987.76.85.84.32.510.61

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:39 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:26 AM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:55 AM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:51 PM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:21 PM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.30.10.20.30.60.80.50-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.30.50.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.