NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Temperatures were lowered a few degrees using MOS guidance to account for cooler than forecasted temperatures tonight.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

The center of high pressure is in the process of shifting offshore, where it will remain anchored for several days. Aloft, heights slightly rise tonight.

With the high shifting offshore, the synoptic flow becomes south/southeasterly. With tonight being the first night of onshore flow, do not expect widespread fog development. However, thinking patchy fog is at least possible in most locations outside of NYC.
The best chances will be in river valleys.

Clear skies and light winds will lead to good radiational cooling conditions. With the gradual moistening of the area, lows are not expected to drop into the 40s like some nights we have had over the past week or so. Tonight, lows likely bottom out in the lower to mid 50s in the usual cool spots. Elsewhere, expect lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure remains centered offshore through the end of the short term period. It will briefly weaken on Friday as a weak surface trough may move through the area later on Friday. The flow aloft is mostly zonal Thursday and Thursday night, with a weak shortwave passing through on Friday into Friday night.

This pattern leads to quiet weather. A slight warming trend will continue through Friday, with highs Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows Friday night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The multiple nights of onshore flow will likely lead to more widespread fog development on Thursday night and Friday night.

With the shortwave and associated surface trough moving through on Friday, a light shower can't be completely ruled out for eastern CT.
Thinking anything that does fall will not be measurable, so have lowered PoPs below slight chance for now.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Warm and dry conditions continue into early next week with high pressure remaining over the Northeast. The high is expected to weaken Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure potentially develops off the Southeast coast and tracks north. Will go ahead and introduce some chance POPs Tuesday night into Wednesday for this threat.

Saturday appears to be the warmest day in the long term with highs mostly in the lower/mid 80s. The remainder of the long term will see highs in the middle and upper 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure moves offshore to the east of New England in the Atlantic through the TAF period.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The exception is outside of NYC terminals with the potential for fog late tonight into early Thursday morning which would reduce visibilities to MVFR to IFR. Have TEMPO groups for KSWF, KHPN, KISP, KBDR and KGON to indicate this in a time window of 08-12Z Thursday. Guidance still varies on the extent of the fog.

Otherwise, wind speeds will be 10 kts or less through the TAF period. Wind direction generally SE to S this evening, and variable late tonight into early Thursday morning, before returning to more S to SE direction by late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Fog possible late tonight into early Thursday with MVFR to IFR visibilities. Probabilities too low to include in TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon-Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower fog/clouds for the non-city terminals each late night/early morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Quiet on the waters with high pressure in control. An easterly swell will get now higher than 2 ft at 8-9s through the end of the week.

Conditions remain below SCA levels through the weekend, however seas are forecast to build to SCA levels on Monday as swells increase from a low pressure system well south of the area.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate rip current risk at the NYC beaches Thursday and Friday, with a low risk of rips at the Nassau and Suffolk beaches.
There is a chance that some moderate rips will be possible on Friday across the eastern beaches.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.