Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Little Ferry, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1) Calmer winds through late week, with a chance of a few snow showers early Saturday morning.

2) The probability for a light accumulating snowfall Sunday night into Monday remains low, but continue monitoring subsequent forecasts as inherent uncertainty remains in this time range.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Conditions remain relatively tranquil through Friday as surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes.

The gusty NW flow in place diminishes into this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes with the high building closer and deep low pressure well to the north and east exiting into the Canadian Maritimes. Conditions on Friday remain dry but seasonably cool, with highs once again into the mid 30s for most, or about 5 degrees below climo for mid February. The lighter winds will also help it feel not quite as cold as the previous day, despite similar air temperatures.

Next chance for precipitation arrives late Friday night into Saturday morning. Weak northern stream shortwave energy drops south into the Northeast, and may instigate a few showers into the local area. Thermal profiles would support snow anywhere precipitation occurs, but moisture will be limited. Hi res CAMs coming into range do depict fairly transient isolated to scattered activity working south and east through the LoHud Valley and down to the coast after midnight on Saturday. Opted to bump up PoPs over the national blend toward low end chance (25%) given this. QPF is light, likely just a few hundredths at most, and many areas may simply remain dry. Where snow showers do fall, a quick coating to half inch is possible, with best chances of seeing this across elevated locales of the interior, but can't be entirely ruled out for coastal areas.

Regardless, any precip comes to an end shortly after sunrise, and conditions dry out for Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM model guidance continue to be in general agreement with northern stream shortwave and southern stream low remaining unphased, with a progressive west to east movement of a southern low and secondary development along the the Mid Atlantic coast and offshore. There has been run to run and model to model consistency for a few runs at this point. This prevailing scenario at this point would only bring a brief and light snow (possibly mixed with rain NYC/NJ metro and LI), from northern stream shortwave lift briefly expanding northern edge of precip shield.

ECMWF/GFS/GEM NWP ensemble means, ECMWF AI, and GFS AI also in general agreement with keeping low pressure well south of the region, with ECMWF mean exhibiting the most development. There are still a small percentage of members, mostly ECMWF, that are indicating a farther north and/or more amplified solution bringing low chance probs for a 1-3" snowfall, although these probs have wavered up and down over the last 24 hours. Very slight probs (less than 10%) of this scenario with GEPS and GEFS. Interestingly, the GEFS plumes show a slight increase in snow for KLGA with the 06Z run, with a mean of around 2", with 10% of the members showing warning level snow and about 15% showing advisory level or higher.
With the ECMWF ensemble, the 50th percentile and lower show no snow across the forecast area, while the 90th shows warning level for Long Island, NYC, northeast NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR continues through the TAF period as high pressure settles over the terminals.

NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt remain possible through 02z, but overall winds and gusts will be diminishing this evening. NW winds 5-10 kt expected overnight and then around 10 kt on Friday. The wind direction should back to the W-WSW in the afternoon and evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts could linger 1-2 hours longer this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and a few snow showers overnight.

Saturday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Sunday: VFR.

Sunday night and Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower and snow, mainly Sunday night and early Monday.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds on the non-ocean have weakened below SCA levels and will continue diminishing this evening. NW wind gusts to 25 kt still possible on the ocean waters, sow will let the Advisory continue until 10pm for now.

Sub-advisory conditions then persist through Sunday as high pressure builds south and west of the waters. Low potential for SCA conditions with low pressure passing to the south and east Sunday night into Monday, but still inherent uncertainty at this point. Thereafter, winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.