Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Passaic, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1) Unseasonably mild / warmer air moves in for the first half of the week. Noticeably cooler much of the time for coastal and eastern portions of the area. Areas of low clouds / fog develop during the evening and night time hours to the east for coastal sections for the next couple of nights.

2) A strong frontal system impacts the area Wednesday night into Thursday with the next chance for rain, possibly changing to and ending as some wet snow Thursday, followed by noticeably cooler air to end next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Temperatures climb well above normal as 850 mb temperatures march up over the next few days, reaching +8 C later today, +10 C Tuesday, and approach +12 C on Wednesday. However, with most water temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees, expect afternoon and evening temperatures to fall with the development of a wind off the cooler waters for coastal and eastern portions of the area. For locations west and north of the NYC temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal the next few days. More of a westerly component to the sfc wind will mean more places further east will stay warmer for a few hours longer during the daytime hours. With the development of diurnally driven winds off the colder waters, look for low cloud and fog development along and closer to the coast for through Tuesday night - Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2
A potent mid level shortwave approaches mid week. Enough ridging out ahead of the disturbance should keep the majority of our area dry through the day Wednesday, thus lowered PoPs down from the NBM. The chances of rain increase into Wednesday night with a gusty southerly flow ahead of the boundary. The cold front should pivot through first thing Thursday morning, so after a mild Wednesday night, the winds switch quickly to the NW on Thursday with a cP air mass moving in. Rain is likely to switch over to wet snow showers on the back side of the front as the upper level flow becomes somewhat parallel to the frontal boundary as the front attempts to behave like a anafront. Liquid precip amounts are likely to range from a quarter to a half inch on average across the area. Temperatures during the day Thursday with gusty / blustery conditions will fall through the 40s and likely into the 30s before day's end. By Thursday night most places will fall below freezing.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak high pressure will remain over the area.

VFR through the rest of the day, with SW winds around 10 kt this afternoon with occasional gusts 15-18 kt. A southerly sea breeze starts at JFK expands farther inland into late day.

Potential for IFR in fog tonight as onshore flow brings in the marine layer. Highest confidence is now farther east for KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON. Fog at other NYC terminals can not be ruled out.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon possible.

Fog likely at KJFK tonight mainly after 03Z. The fog could spread to the other metros after midnight but forecast confidence is low.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Afternoon: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. S winds G20kt late in the afternoon. LLWS also possible late in the afternoon E of the NYC metros.

Wednesday night: Showers likely especially after midnight, with MVFR or lower cond possible at times. S winds 10-15G20-25kt. LLWS likely.

Thursday: Rain showers likely in the morning, then chance of rain or snow showers in the afternoon. MVFR or lower cond possible. SW winds 10-15G20kt early, becoming W-NW 15-20G25kt.

Thursday night: Chance of rain or snow showers at KGON with MVFR cond still possible, otherwise VFR. W-NW winds 15-20G25kt in the evening.

Friday: Mainly VFR. S winds 10-15G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Friday night: Chance of rain or snow showers with MVFR or lower cond. S winds 10-15G20-25kt, becoming SW-W after midnight.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90



MARINE
Sub advisory conditions expected through Tuesday. A southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front during Wednesday as small craft conditions are expected to return to the ocean waters during the afternoon, and for the remainder of the waters Wednesday night. Small craft conditions should persist across the waters on Thursday as the winds will be gusty out of the NW.
Sub advisory conditions should return by late Thursday night into Friday morning. Small craft conditions may return to the waters by Friday evening on a S to SW flow ahead of the next frontal system.

CLIMATE
Below are record high temperatures for Monday March 9th and Tuesday March 10th.

Monday March 9th: EWR: 82/2016 BDR: 64/2021 NYC: 77/2016 LGA: 75/2016,2000 JFK: 67/1973 ISP: 68/2016

Tuesday March 10th: EWR: 81/2016 BDR: 70/2006 NYC: 79/2016 LGA: 78/2016 JFK: 71/2006 ISP: 73/2016

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.