Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Water Mill, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A back door cold front about to move into far eastern LI and SE CT will track east to west across the area overnight with winds becoming easterly and gradually strengthening. Low-level clouds will also work in from the east in tandem with the boundary, while mid and high level clouds associated with low pressure to the southwest gradually move eastward. Precip with the low to the west unlikely to make it into the area tonight, but a few sprinkles are possible with the back door front as it moves westward.

Based on latest temperature trends and increasing cloud cover, bumped up lows a bit overnight, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s, warmest along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Rain may be slow to enter the area on Wed especially out east with upper level ridging only starting to move east, but should make it into the western half of the CWA by afternoon and then eastern sections by late afternoon or evening as the ridge moves E and a lead mid level shortwave trough approaches.

Periods of rain expected throughout from Wed night into Thu, with the heavier QPF mainly from late Wed night into Thu morning as an easterly LLJ transports Atlantic moisture into the area ahead of the approaching coastal low, and as a stronger mid level shortwave trough approaches from the west. As the low pulls east Thu night precip should become light and more intermittent/showery.

High temps both Wed/Thu should remain in the 50s. Lows Wed night will be 45-50 inland and in the lower 50s along the coast, and in the 40s throughout Thu night with some CAA on N flow on the back side of the low as it passes to the east and heads up toward the New England coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Points:

*Unsettled conditions will continue Friday with cool temperatures and scattered showers possible.

*Temperatures start to trend warmer Saturday and especially Sunday, but will remain below normal for this time of year. A shower is possible on Saturday.

*Mainly dry conditions are currently expected on Memorial Day with temperatures slightly below normal in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Anomalous upper low and associated trough will slowly move across the area Friday through Saturday. The upper low slowly shifts towards the Canadian Maritimes Sunday and pushes further east next Monday.

The proximity of the upper low and associated surface low Friday will bring a continuation of mostly cloudy and cool conditions.
The cold pocket aloft and any surface heating should lead to the development of scattered showers. This potential may continue into Friday night as the upper trough axis starts to slide east of the area. Cyclonic flow will continue aloft on Saturday with an isolated shower possible. Skies will likely remain partly sunny to mostly cloudy due to the lingering cold pocket aloft. Highs on Friday will only reach the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs on Saturday will start to warm a bit, but still remain below normal in the lower to middle 60s.

Improving conditions continue on Sunday with low pressure slowly pushing into the Canadian Maritimes. Cyclonic flow lingers aloft, but should see less cloud cover versus Saturday allowing temperatures to push into the upper 60s and potentially low 70s in the usual warmer locations. Some guidance is hinting at some energy rotating around the low to our west, but think the atmosphere will be dry enough to suppress any shower development.

The evolution of the large scale pattern is much less certain heading into next Tuesday, but there are hints of another trough developing over the eastern US. Followed the latest model consensus (NBM) which is currently keeping conditions mainly dry on Memorial day as high pressure returns. The next chance of showers may occur on Tuesday, but this will be dependent on the potential evolution of another upper trough. Highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, slightly below normal for the last week of May.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure remains over New England and into Long Island overnight, and then gradually gives way to low pressure approaching from the southwest on Wednesday.

MVFR to the east of the NYC terminals, with VFR, becoming MVFR at the NYC terminals and west 08Z to 09Z. KGON may not see MVFR ceilings persist overnight as it resides closer to some low-level dry air associated with the surface high. Rain begins to move slowly into the terminals around 14Z west and 16Z east, with KGON holding off possibly as late as 19Z or late into the afternoon. Widespread IFR conditions likely hold off until Wednesday night, but there could be some pockets before then, especially across the Lower Hudson Valley.

Light E winds overnight will gradually strengthen Wednesday morning, increasing to 10-15kt, with G15-20kt developing during the afternoon. Winds gradually back to the NE late Wednesday night.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of the rain may vary by 1-2 hours. Pockets of IFR possible Wednesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Late Wednesday Night-Thursday: IFR, possibly MVFR at times, with periods of rain. E wind gusts 20-25kt, mainly at the coastal terminals. Winds diminishing and veering to the N/NE Thursday afternoon/night.

Friday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Light/VRB winds becoming W.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers. WNW flow gusting 20-25kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Gale watch remains in effect for the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet for late Wed night into Thu morning. As low pressure passes to the south and then east during this time, E winds should ramp up, with gusts to 35-40 kt possible during this time. On the remaining waters, SCA in effect, beginning 11 AM Wed for the ocean W of Fire Island Inlet, and for Wed night into Thu for all but western Long Island Sound, with gusts 25-30 kt.
Seas build to 6-10 ft on the ocean during this time and also 4-6 ft on easternmost Long Island Sound.

By Thu evening winds back northerly and diminish, but seas will still be as high as 6-8 ft on the ocean and 5 ft on the ernmost Sound, and should gradually diminish to 4-6 ft and 3-4 ft respectively.

SCA conditions due to lingering 5 ft ocean seas will likely be ongoing on Friday. Seas should subside below 5 ft Friday night.
There is a chance wind gusts could approach 25 kt on Saturday.
Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels Saturday and Sunday.

HYDROLOGY
Rainfall from Wed into Thu night will range from 1-1.25 inches for most areas, with higher amts of 1.50-1.75 inches across ern Long Island and SE CT. Rainfall will be light to moderate, with rates not expected to exceed 1/2 inch per hour. At worst only nuisance impacts expected mainly from late Wed night into Thu morning.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A strengthening/persistent E-NE flow Wednesday through Thursday may result in minor coastal flooding mid to late week. Water levels should remain below minor coastal flood benchmarks during times of high tide Wed into Thu morning, but a round of more widespread minor flooding is possible with the high tide late Thu afternoon into Thu evening, with tidal departures mostly 1.5 to 2.0 ft and locally as high as 2.0 to 2.5 ft out east. These departures are actually lower than in some previous forecasts, as it appears winds may start to back N and diminish leading into this high tide cycle.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-340.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Thursday for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to noon EDT Thursday for ANZ355.