Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 3:37 PM   Moonset 4:27 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 742 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late this evening. Chance of showers after midnight, then showers likely late. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers, mainly in the morning. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sun night - W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Wed night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 742 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front moves across the region late tonight into early Saturday, followed by a secondary cold front Saturday evening. High pressure then builds in through early next week, but gives way to a frontal system on Wednesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 192348 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 748 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves across the region late tonight into early Saturday, followed by a secondary cold front Saturday evening.
High pressure then builds in through early next week, but gives way to a frontal system mid week. High pressure follows behind to close out the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Surface ridging will continue to weaken this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Much of the shower activity working in from the west this evening will weaken as it encounters the lingering ridging and some dry air. Most CAMs indicate a relative min in precipitation from 00z to about 06z. Have backed off on chances for showers this evening, but will continue to show a gradual increase.

PoPs will steadily increase after 06z from west to east due to an approaching jet streak over the Ohio Valley/Midwest.
Increasing upper divergence ahead of the jet will result in more organized lift. There will also be a bit more organized thermal forcing, especially along and east of the Hudson River. Showers should become widespread early Saturday morning as a result and then gradually push east of the area by midday as the cold front shifts offshore. Most the of rainfall should be light although a few briefly moderate showers cannot be ruled out.
Amounts are lightest west of the city, around a tenth or less.
Along and east of the Hudson River Corridor, including the NYC metro, amounts range from around two to three tenths.

Improving conditions are expected late morning into the afternoon with the likelihood for some sunshine as clouds thin/diminish.
However, the associated shortwave will be swinging across New England late Saturday afternoon and evening. Partly to at times mostly cloudy conditions look probable, but this should be enough to allow temperatures to rise into the lower and middle 60s with some upper 60s possible in the NYC metro. IF there is less cloud cover than currently forecast, highs could end up a few degrees warmer given a strengthening downslope westerly flow. A secondary cold front quickly moves through in the early evening with the aforementioned shortwave axis. For now will just show a slight chance PoP for interior S CT closest to the vort max which is supported by the latest CAMs.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Surface high pressure centered over the central states will slowly build towards the region Saturday night into Sunday.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated Saturday night with lows falling into the 30s inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and lower 40s closer to the coast.

A large upper level low will be developing over southeast Canada Saturday night into Sunday. This will result in troughing persisting over the eastern US early next week. A wave of low pressure is progged to develop over the southeast on Sunday along with another shortwave swinging across New England. These features will likely bring middle and upper level clouds on Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies and dry conditions. Highs will be a few degrees below normal in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The upper trough axis lifts out of the Northeast Sunday night with a brief return to a more zonal flow across the northern tier of the country. At the surface, weak high pressure builds east into the area through Monday night. The next piece of energy, located over the Northern Plains on Monday, will carve out an upper trough across the Great Lakes on Ohio Valley states Tuesday, and then on into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states on Wednesday. The associated frontal system will impact the area Wednesday into Wednesday night with increasing chances of showers during this time. At this time, there is little instability advertised in the guidance, so will keep the mention of thunder out of the forecast at this time. System looks progressive with rainfall amounts expected to be under an inch at this time. High pressure then closes out this week. There are some differences in the global models with the frontal timing and the interaction with northern branch energy, but impacts still look minimal. Thus, stayed very close to a consensus forecast. So all in all, a relatively benign period with no hazardous weather expected.

Temperatures will generally be at or just below seasonable levels with the exception of some milder air mid week in a strengthening southerly flow ahead of the approaching frontal system. Even then, it won't be much higher than normal.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure moves offshore this evening as a cold front approaches to the west. This front will move across the terminals late tonight into Saturday morning. A secondary cold front, or surface trough, will move across the terminals Saturday afternoon.

MVFR ceilings prevail across the terminals this evening, with the exception of KGON, which will be lowering to MVFR later in the evening. Conditions lower to IFR overnight as light rain showers develop. Timing of lowering conditions may be an hour or two earlier than forecast. There is a low chance that a few terminals may briefly lower to LIFR, however, with low confidence have not included in the forecast. Conditions improve back to VFR Saturday morning west, and during the afternoon east.

SE winds become southerly this evening, and then SW late, and westerly with the passage of the cold front. Then with the passage of the secondary front/surface trough during the afternoon winds become more WNW with gusts developing. There is a chance that gusts will be around 25kt by late in the day.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled AMD likely for timing of lowering conditions.
Uncertain with the timing of IFR overnight, and may be earlier.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: VFR. Winds NW 10-15G20-25kt.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon/early evening mainly NYC metros/coast.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Showers becoming likely. S winds 10-15G20-25kt mainly in the afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA remains in effect for the ocean until 06z for seas around 5 ft. A cold front moves across the waters early Saturday follow by a secondary cold front Saturday evening. High pressure then builds Saturday night through Sunday. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels from late tonight through Sunday given a relatively weak pressure gradient.

High pressure should then keep conditions at sub-advisory levels through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels on Wednesday with the next low pressure and associated cold front to approach.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.

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Nissequogue River entrance
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Fri -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:06 AM EDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:26 PM EDT     7.01 feet High Tide
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Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Northport
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Fri -- 02:50 AM EDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:51 AM EDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:10 PM EDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:13 PM EDT     7.03 feet High Tide
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Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2), Tide feet

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