Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:04PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 11:35 PM EST (04:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1007 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Light rain and light sleet likely late this evening. Chance of light freezing rain. Chance of light rain, light snow and light sleet after midnight.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain and light snow in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain and light snow in the evening.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 1007 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure moves south and east of long island tonight into Wednesday. A trough of low pressure also lingers near the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. A coastal storm develops and passes south of the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday. Another low pressure system will then approach from the west and southwest either late this weekend or early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith, NY
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location: 40.87, -73.2     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 270315 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1015 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure moves south and east of Long Island tonight into Wednesday. A trough of low pressure also lingers near the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. A coastal storm develops and passes south of the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday. Another low pressure system will then approach from the west and southwest either late this weekend or early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. PCPN becoming less likely as we head toward the overnight hours. For coastal areas, primarily rain showers, however some sleet and maybe even briefly some snow can mix in where PCPN is heavier. Mixing here is more likely to happen before 06z, however for Long Island, snow could still possibly mix in beyond this time as areas east of the city become the focus for best lift with potential for briefly moderate PCPN. As for areas north of NYC, although mid levels have dried out, it appears that RH is high enough where temps are approx -8 to -11 C, which may not be ideal for dendritic snow growth, but enough for ice nucleation required for snow. So expecting snow showers north of the city, and at times there could be freezing drizzle. Sleet is looking less likely here, but will leave it in the forecast for now.

Winter Weather advisory remains in effect for the rest of the night north of the city. Elsewhere, have issued a special weather statement as there could be isolated areas that fall to freezing, causing slick spots on untreated surfaces. Temperatures probably don't change all the much for the rest of the night, but generally slightly colder towards daybreak as northerly winds have more of a chance to usher in colder air.

Additional snow accumulations will be low - likely under an inch. A light glaze of ice is also anticipated for areas mainly north of the city.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Weak low pressure passes well offshore on Wednesday. An initial shortwave moves east of New England in the morning. There may be brief ridging aloft for a few hours late morning into the afternoon, before another shortwave is likely to approach. A trough of low pressure is probable to set up across eastern portions of the region. Due to the nearly consistent shortwave energy aloft and the low pressure trough, a low chance PoP remains in the forecast across eastern LI and eastern CT. Boundary layer temps look a bit warmer in the middle to upper 30s. The depth of moisture continues to look shallow, but the low level thermal profile on forecast soundings is a little colder. For these reasons, will just go with a light snow wording inland and light snow/light rain wording near the coast. The intensity should be very light and could end up just being flurries or sprinkles. Little to no additional accumulation is forecast with any light snow on Wednesday.

Model guidance has been struggling with the placement of the low pressure trough on Wednesday night. Have kept a slight chance in the forecast out east, but it is possible this sets up east of the area with drier conditions returning areawide.

Conditions otherwise will be mostly cloudy into Wednesday night. Lows will be in the 20s for most locations with lower 30s in the NYC metro.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The long term period will feature two main events. The first will be the cold Friday and Saturday, and the second will be the potential for a coastal storm sometime in the late weekend or early next week timeframe.

Before then, mainly dry weather is expected on Thursday as an area of low pressure passes south and east of the region. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will begin building south and east from the southern Canadian prairies. With the region in-between these two systems, a strong pressure gradient will develop. Expect a stretch of windy conditions for Thursday and Friday. As high pressure builds over the region to begin the weekend the winds will relax for Saturday and Saturday night. Friday and Saturday will be one of the colder 2 day periods of the winter thus far, with temperatures both days not getting out of the 20s. Overnight lows fall into the single digits and teens.

The next forecast challenge comes late this weekend into early next week with the approach of the next coastal storm. Most of the long range forecasts are indicating some impact to the local area with this next low, however there are timing differences with each of them. The GFS is the fastest of the models, with precipitation moving in Sunday afternoon/evening, while the slowest of the models is the ECMWF, which doesn't bring the precip in until Monday evening. As with most storms this far out, the other unknown will be the track this storm will take. Generally speaking, temperatures should be cold enough for snow to start, however the GFS brings the low close enough for the snow to mix with and change over to snow along the coast. The ECMWF/Canadian keep the system a little further offshore, meaning less of a chance for change over. Overall, this will be a system that will have to be watched for perhaps some winter weather impacts, but there is low confidence and high uncertainty with respect to intensity and precip type for the longevity / duration of the potential event.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A trough of low pressure shifts through the region tonight.

IFR tonight with mainly rain showers for the city terminals and KISP, with potentially some sleet and drizzle at times this evening and possibly some snow mixing in overnight. Elsewhere, a wintry mix of freezing drizzle, snow. IFR improves to MVFR Wednesday with lingering drizzle possible through mid- morning.

Little additional snow/ice accumulation expected.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Snow may mix in at any give time, but more likely to occur after midnight, and east of the city terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Weds night. Improving to VFR late at night. Thu. VFR with NW winds gusting up to 35kt. Fri. VFR with NW winds gusting up to 40kt. Sat. VFR. Sun. Becoming MVFR or lower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Weak low pressure passes just south and east of the waters tonight. Seas will be between 3 and 4 ft through tonight. With an easterly fetch, they could briefly reach 5 ft east of Moriches inlet. The low moves further east on Wednesday. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels during this time. Another low pressure develops off the southeast coast Wednesday night. The pressure gradient over the waters begins to increase with potential of winds gusting to 25 kt on the ocean by early Thursday morning.

Low pressure intensifies Thursday with SCA conditions expected on the area waters. Gales will become increasingly likely on the ocean waters Thursday night and into Friday, with the potential for gales on the non-ocean waters. Conditions are expected to subside back below SCA conditions for the second half of Saturday from west to east as high pressure begins to settle north of the waters for later Saturday and Saturday night. Conditions build back to SCA levels early next week with the approach of another low pressure system.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through the upcoming weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ067>071. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ002- 004-103-104. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . BC/DS NEAR TERM . JC/DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . BC AVIATION . JC MARINE . BC/DS HYDROLOGY . BC/DS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi516 min ENE 6 G 12 29°F 39°F1013.8 hPa (-2.1)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 30 mi516 min E 5.1 G 6 32°F 1013.9 hPa (-2.4)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi516 min NE 5.1 G 8 29°F 37°F1015.5 hPa (-2.2)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi496 min E 19 G 23 45°F1011.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi496 min E 19 G 23 43°F1011.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi516 min 33°F 40°F1012.8 hPa (-3.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 48 mi516 min ENE 13 G 14 33°F 1012.2 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY7 mi40 minENE 96.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist34°F34°F100%1010.7 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi43 minE 610.00 miUnknown Precip35°F33°F93%1010.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY18 mi40 minVar 45.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist35°F32°F89%1011.1 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT22 mi44 minNE 73.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F29°F88%1011.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmNE3N6NE6NE9NE9NE8E9NE8NE9E8E8E7E7NE5E7E8NE5N7N9NE7NE7NE9
1 day agoNW11NW12NW11NW10NW8NW12NW9NW9NW10NW9NW10NW10NW12N11NW9NW9NW9NW7NW5N4N7N8N9--
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Tide / Current Tables for Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Nissequogue River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:04 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:14 AM EST     7.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:41 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:44 PM EST     6.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.21.10.712.23.85.46.77.3764.42.71.20.200.82.23.85.36.36.55.8

Tide / Current Tables for Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Northport
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:55 AM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:40 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:01 AM EST     7.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:34 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:30 PM EST     6.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.21.910.61.22.54.35.97.27.67.25.94.22.51.10.20.112.64.35.86.76.75.8

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