Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laurel Hollow, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Adjusted hourly and minimum temperatures in the outlying areas downward based on current observations and clear skies seen on satellite imagery. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

Otherwise, high pressure over the area that has provided the arctic air the last several days has weakened. A baroclinic zone remains offshore along with a strong 170-180 kt jet streak to our south. A wave of low pressure has developed offshore in association with this jet energy. The flow will keep this low well offshore overnight with dry conditions continuing along with only a few clouds. Temperatures will still be well below normal, but should be warmer than the last several nights. Low temperatures look to range from around 10 degrees inland to the middle and upper teens closer to the coast. The NYC metro may not fall below 20 degrees. A few outlying areas and the LI Pine Barrens could fall into the upper single digits. There will likely be a light NW flow through the night, which may make it feel like it is in the single digits to low teens at times, especially early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
An upper trough approaches on Friday along with an associated dry cold front. The front likely passes east by evening as the shortwave axis begins to move offshore. The passage of the trough and cold front will bring a reinforcement of cold air, but not to the magnitude observed earlier this week. High pressure builds towards the area Friday night, but most likely remains to our south on Saturday with a surface ridge in place over the northeast. The high then pushes off the Middle Atlantic and southeast Saturday night. This pattern will lead to dry conditions through the period.

Lows Friday night will be in the single digits inland and teens most elsewhere. Winds will be light, but not completely calm allowing wind chills to fall into the single digits to low teens. Temperatures for Saturday look to range from the upper 20s inland to the lower 30s near the coast.

Moisture in the atmosphere gradually increases on Saturday.
Zonal flow aloft will begin to send mid level clouds into the area in the afternoon and evening. A broad shortwave is then progged to pass to our northwest at the same time as the surface high pressure moving offshore. Warm advection commences Saturday night as a result with mostly cloudy skies and milder temperatures. Low temperatures for most locations will be in the 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A predominantly dry and seasonably cold weather regime prevails in the long term period. Temperatures may dip back below seasonal levels towards the end of the period getting closer to mid week.

The northern branch of the jet stream will remain dominant. With energy closed off in the southern branch across the SW CONUS there will be the lack of a moisture source for the foreseeable future. The polar jet stream will be nearby throughout the period. A cold front is expected to push through during Sunday.
The front will be moisture starved as mainly just some clouds are expected preceding the front, with nothing more that a few passing flurries across the interior.

The main question during next week is whether the region gets reintroduced to very cold / arctic air. A stronger cold front is expected to come down from Canada and cross the Great Lakes early next week. Some of the global guidance is more aggressive with the surge of cold air with a further south displacement and release of cold air. The latest 12z GFS and DWD global deterministic models are in this camp, with the previous 0z ECMWF deterministic not as aggressive with the drive south of colder air. There are also timing differences with the boundary as the latest 12z ECMWF is a bit faster with the boundary and drive it through sometime during the day Tuesday, with the GFS driving it through later. The National Blend of Models (NBM)
continues to show an substantial increase in spread with temperatures Tuesday night and through the mid to late week period. Thus, the uncertainty with temperatures remains large for the middle and latter part of next week. For the time being went 1 to 2 degrees below NBM guidance Tuesday night through Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure remains over the region into Friday. A weak cold front passes through Friday evening.

VFR.

WSW winds 5-10kt will gradually veer to the WNW overnight, becoming NW Friday evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Late Friday Night-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. W-WSW gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will lead to winds and seas below SCA levels through Saturday. A steepening pressure gradient Saturday night results in increasing SW winds and the next chance for SCA wind gusts and seas on the ocean. SCA conditions should then continue on the ocean waters for Sunday through Tuesday, with marginal SCA conditions likely for the non-ocean waters on primarily a west wind. Ocean seas during this time are expected to be mainly between 4 and 6 ft.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic issues expected through the middle of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.