Laurel Hollow, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laurel Hollow, NY

June 19, 2024 10:03 PM EDT (02:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM
Moonrise 6:35 PM   Moonset 3:05 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 800 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2024

Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.

Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.

Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.

Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Mon - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Mon night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 800 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure over the western atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front slides down from the north Friday into Friday night and stalls close by on Saturday. The front lifts north as a warm front Sunday with a cold front to follow on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurel Hollow, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 200000 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 800 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front slides down from the north Friday into Friday night and stalls close by on Saturday.
The front lifts north as a warm front Sunday with a cold front to follow on Monday. High pressure settles in Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
For this update mainly just adjusted temps up a degree or two through a good chunk of the first half of the night as obs have generally been running slightly warmer than forecast, especially further NW across the interior. Dew points were also adjusted as lower dew points have occurred with some mixing. Also added in some cloud cover as cirrus / convective debris from over Central NE and Upstate NY drifts south and into the CWA The previous discussion follows.

Core of the anomalous middle and upper level anticyclone/ridge remains overhead tonight. Strong subsidence will continue to keep any convection well to our north for the first half of tonight.

Dew points have dropped this evening as some drier air has mixed down, especially away from the immediate coast, due to the subsidence aloft and nearby surface ridging.

Mostly clear skies are forecast tonight with some high cirrus clouds possible at times, especially further north for this evening. Temperatures will fall into the upper 60s for most locations with lower 70s likely in urban NE NJ and the NYC metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The Heat Advisory has been extended into Friday evening for NE NJ and remains in effect for much of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior S CT through Thursday evening.

The anomalous ridging will slowly shift to our south and west Thursday with more steadily decreasing heights aloft on Friday.
A cold front will slowly move towards the area and start moving from north to south across the area late Friday into Friday night.

There has not been too much change with the overall thinking for Thursday with the likelihood of temperatures warming a couple of degrees compared to Wednesday. 850mb temps rise slightly to 18-20C for Thursday. Dewpoints could have a difficult time mixing out across the interior, being closer to moisture convergence and where 850mb temps will be higher than the rest of the area. Otherwise, most of the area except for the coast should see dew points mix out a few degrees in the afternoon as has been the case the last few days. The ongoing advisory looks reasonable for Thursday and do not see a need to include any other zones not in it since conditions have fallen short the last few days.

The cold front starts to approach from the north late Thursday, but think any convection will stay north during the day. An isolated shower or storm could graze the interior zones Thursday evening and Thursday night, but otherwise dry and muggy conditions will continue.

Conditions should heat up quickly Friday morning and early afternoon. Convection may begin developing just north of the area late morning/early afternoon and then begin moving into the interior in the afternoon. This increased cloud cover should bring highs down a few degrees across the interior and it is possible that they fail to reach 90 degrees. There will be more time for heating across NE NJ and the NYC metro. Confidence is highest across for NE NJ to once again reach advisory criteria .
Higher dew points are likely across the NYC metro which could yield heat indices around 95, but the 2 day criteria is not expected to be met. Therefore, no advisory has been issued for the NYC metro. For coastal areas of CT and Long Island, Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week with highs in the middle and upper 80s. A few isolated spots could touch 90 across NW Long Island and could see a heat index around 95.

The slow moving front will support the convection Friday afternoon and evening, first across the interior and then slowly sagging southward towards the coast. Much of the day should be dry for the southern half of the area, but the approaching front and subtle shortwaves around the periphery of the ridge support potential for convection to continue past sunset down to the coast. Shear is not strong, but a few pulse severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially inland. Precipitable waters around 2 inches, high freezing levels, and a weak steering flow, could allow storms to train in some areas. WPC has the Lower Hudson Valley and S CT in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall with localized flash flooding a possibility. The risk could reach the coast if convection is able to sustain itself.

Otherwise, the cold front will begin pushing across the area Friday night with some slightly cooler and drier air beginning to advect into Connecticut and eastern Long Island. Lows will be in the 60s for most with lower 70s across NE NJ and NYC metro.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
**Key Points**

* Quite Humid through the weekend with the chance of showers and t- storms both days.

* A cold front with showers and t-storms slides through Monday which breaks the high humidity and heat.

A cold front gradually slips south and through at least a portion of the CWA, before stalling on Saturday. With the humid air mass still in place and the boundary lingering look for a solid chance of showers and t-storms across much of the area as the afternoon progresses as a function of diurnally and air mass driven instability. PWATs will be on the order of +1.75 inches, thus any storms that fire up will contain locally heavy rain and perhaps some gusty winds. The relatively higher chance of storms will be further north across the area. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning the boundary is expected to lift back north as a warm front. The front should get well north of the area towards midday on Sunday. A lead shortwave out ahead of the main trough / mid level shortwave is progged by most guidance to arrive during Sunday evening. This may prime the atmosphere just enough to lead to another round of showers and t-storms late Sunday into Sunday night. Afterwards forcing should increase into early Monday as the main cold front begins to bear down on the region from the west. At this point showers and t- storms should begin to progress a bit faster as mid and upper level flow should start to increase. At this point SW to NE training showers and t-storms are more likely as opposed to stalled or slower moving activity. Refer to the Hydro section of this AFD for details regarding potential hydrologic impacts.

At this time Sunday appears to be the hottest and most humid day of the period. Saturday will be rather warm and humid with heat indices struggling to reach 95, even across portions of NE NJ. There may be enough cloud cover at times on Saturday to prevent heat advisory criteria from being met, even across metro NE NJ. On Sunday with thickness ridging working in and the CWA gets purely into the warm sector and more of a westerly component to the S to SW flow, look for a larger portion of the area to reach 95 to 100 heat indices.
Perhaps more eastern locations and closer to the ocean fall short of advisory criteria on Sunday, but it will be muggy nonetheless. Night time temperatures will remain rather warm with humid conditions through the weekend.

On Monday the front begins to push through, but with differences in the timing with global deterministic NWP. Look for Monday to be unsettled, especially further east across the area with the PWAT axis later in the day draped across eastern portions of the area.
The front should clear the area Monday evening, and with that the humidity gradually falls into Tue AM. Look for a drier W to NW flow to begin Tuesday as high pressure works in from the west. It will only be a subtle air mass change with the humidity dropping some.
The winds will likely shift more to the south late in the day with humidity starting to inch up into Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Uncertainty remains with the eastward progression of upper level energy and the southern extent of a frontal boundary by late Wednesday. Late day or evening convection is a possibility late Wed, but much, if not all of the day will be rain free.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure will remain based in the Western Atlantic through the TAF period.

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Only caveat may be near KGON where some patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Thursday morning with brief MVFR visibilities possible.

Winds will be S-SW through the TAF period. The near 20 kt gusts subside early this evening with more 15-20 kt gusts possible Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening but may very well only be occasional.

Otherwise, sustained winds will be mainly near 5-10 kt during the TAF period.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some wind gusts 15-20 kt are possible Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: Mainly VFR. Possible patchy fog with MVFR visibility reduction near KGON late into early Friday morning.

Friday and Saturday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for MVFR or lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours.

Sunday and Monday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for MVFR or lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms, again mainly during afternoon/evening hours. For Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening, S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Strengthening S flow due sea breeze circulations could push wind gusts occasionally to around 20-25 kt nearshore across the NY Harbor and the westernmost ocean waters for both this evening and Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels through the end of the week.

Sub small craft conditions will continue through Saturday with a southerly flow. Seas begin to inch up closer to 4 ft on the ocean late Saturday night, with small craft seas becoming increasingly likely Sunday and Sunday night along with marginal small craft gusts. Small craft conditions will likely linger into Monday for a good portion of the ocean waters, with sub small craft conditions likely continuing for the non-ocean waters.

HYDROLOGY
Showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night are expected to produce an average of a half inch to an inch of rainfall north of NYC, and lower amounts for NYC, LI and NE NJ. There is a threat of higher amounts as the storms may redevelop along a stalled cold front and move slowly. There is therefore at least a low risk for localized flash flooding.

A stalled front remains nearby with more showers and t-storms popping up Saturday afternoon and evening. Another series of showers and storms will also be likely Sunday afternoon and evening, and possibly into a portion of Monday as the main cold front moves through. At any point from late Friday through the weekend, and possibly into Monday any stronger storms will likely produce locally heavy rainfall with a low risk of localized flash flooding. This will depend on the speed of the storms which is too early to assess at this time. ML Excessive Rainfall progs are suggestive of a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding for Sunday and into a portion of Monday. The uncertainty still remains high around potential hydrologic impacts for this time period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There will be a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches Thursday into Friday with a S to SW wind wave.

CLIMATE
Here are current record high temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

Thursday, June 20

NYC: 98(1923)
LGA: 98(2012)
JFK: 94(2012)
EWR: 98(2012)
ISP: 93(1995)
BDR: 93(1953)

Friday, June 21

NYC: 97(1988)
LGA: 98(2012)
JFK: 97(2012)
EWR: 100(1953)
ISP: 95(2012)
BDR: 96(2012)

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ005>008.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi45 minSSE 12G13 72°F 64°F30.32
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 26 mi45 minSSW 5.1G8 74°F 67°F30.27
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 31 mi45 min 76°F 67°F30.26
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi45 minS 9.9G11 74°F 30.31
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi33 minSSW 14G18 71°F 68°F30.3269°F
MHRN6 40 mi45 minS 6G8.9
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 40 mi45 minS 11G13 75°F 75°F30.32
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi45 minSSW 7G9.9 73°F 68°F30.33
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi33 minSSW 12G14 71°F 70°F30.3568°F


Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: FRG
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Tide / Current for Cold Spring Harbor, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
   
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Cold Spring Harbor
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Wed -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:09 AM EDT     6.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:10 PM EDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:20 PM EDT     8.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cold Spring Harbor, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
12
am
5.6
1
am
3.9
2
am
2.4
3
am
1.2
4
am
0.6
5
am
0.9
6
am
2
7
am
3.5
8
am
5
9
am
6.2
10
am
6.8
11
am
6.5
12
pm
5.5
1
pm
4.1
2
pm
2.8
3
pm
1.7
4
pm
1.2
5
pm
1.5
6
pm
2.6
7
pm
4.2
8
pm
5.9
9
pm
7.3
10
pm
8
11
pm
7.9


Tide / Current for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
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Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:31 AM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:47 AM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:55 PM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:06 PM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
12
am
-0.3
1
am
-0
2
am
0.1
3
am
0.4
4
am
0.8
5
am
0.8
6
am
0.4
7
am
0.1
8
am
-0.1
9
am
-0.3
10
am
-0.5
11
am
-0.6
12
pm
-0.4
1
pm
-0.1
2
pm
0
3
pm
0.2
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
0.8
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
0.2
8
pm
-0.1
9
pm
-0.3
10
pm
-0.5
11
pm
-0.6


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Upton, NY,




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