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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1110 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Isolated tstms. Rain in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Isolated tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with isolated tstms.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1110 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure to our north will shift east into the atlantic tonight. Meanwhile, tropical storm ophelia will make landfall in north carolina before devolving into a post-tropical depression early Sunday morning. The low along the delmarva weakens Monday and drifts south as high pressure builds into eastern canada. The high will build southward Monday night through Wednesday, and then remains centered over new england into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure along the carolina and mid atlantic coast deepens Wednesday through Friday.
for the latest forecasts on tropical storm ophelia, refer to the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov and/or the nws new york office's tropical page at weather.gov/okx/tropical

FXUS61 KOKX 230619 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 219 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure to our north will shift east into the Atlantic tonight. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ophelia will make landfall in North Carolina before devolving into a post-tropical depression early Sunday morning. The low along the Delmarva weakens Monday and drifts south as high pressure builds into eastern Canada.
The high will build southward Monday night through Wednesday, and then remains centered over New England into Friday.
Meanwhile, low pressure along the Carolina and mid Atlantic coast deepens Wednesday through Friday.

For the latest forecasts on Tropical Storm Ophelia, refer to the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov and/or the NWS New York office's tropical page at weather.gov/okx/tropical

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
The forecast is on track with only minor changes to reflect current conditions needed. Previous discussion follows.

Precipitation will be moving into the area from the south late tonight as high pressure weakens and drifts to the east.
Updated the probabilities to lower the chances inland until toward Saturday morning. Otherwise, updated for current conditions.

High pressure to our north continues to exit east tonight.
Tropical Storm Ophelia to our south will continue to increase the pressure gradient tonight. Winds will remain out of the east 10-15 mph with 20-25 mph gusts becoming.

Strong winds and increased cloud cover from Ophelia to our south will lead to low temperatures overnight in the mid/upper-50s north, with low-60s for coastal and southern portions of our area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Tropical Storm Ophelia will make landfall in North Carolina where it will slowing track through Virginia and Maryland where it is expected to transition into a post-tropical depression with eventual dissipation by Sunday night. While it will be making landfall well to our south Saturday morning, we will see most of our impacts from Ophelia Saturday into Sunday.

CAMs are in good agreement that a wide band of precip will sweep northward well away from Ophelia's center of low pressure tracking up the east coast, arriving early Saturday morning. Precip will likely be stratiform and widespread in coverage SAturday morning and afternoon. Some models indicate an increase in rainfall intensity on the back side of the wide band of precip Saturday evening into possibly early Sunday before a temporary lull in the precip as it transitions into a more showery form of precipitation. Rainfall rates will likely be 0.25-0.50"/hr Saturday evening into early Sunday. The timing of the higher rainfall rates is in agreement with CAMs.

Sunday is when confidence in exact rainfall impacts becomes a little uncertain. Models diverge on their solutions with Ophelia's track and persistence. Some have it hanging on until Monday tracking north through Virginia and Maryland while others have the system completely dissipating Sunday, which appears to be in agreement with the NHC's forecast. With Ophelia expected to dissipate and stall over Maryland, rainfall on Sunday will likely be more scattered and showery in nature.

Rainfall totals Saturday through early Monday will be 2.5-3" for southern portions of the CWA and 2-2.25" for northern portions of the CWA. Much of this, around 1.5-2", will fall on Saturday with the initial wave of precip.

Aside from rainfall, winds will be the other primary impact felt on land. The pressure gradient will increase winds across the CWA, with the strongest winds expected across southern portions of the area.
Winds will increase Saturday morning reaching their peak Saturday afternoon and evening with wast winds sustained 15-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. An isolated 40 mph gust can not be ruled out. As it stands now, this will not meet criteria for a Wind Advisory. Northern portions of the CWA may only see gusts around 25 mph during this peak wind period. Winds will gradually subside SAturday night into SUnday morning with gusts up to 30 mph through Sunday morning, dropping to 20 mph gusts by Sunday evening as the pressure gradient weakens from a dissipating Ophelia.

Temperatures will be moderated by the rain and cloud cover this weekend with highs expected to be in the mid-60s and lows in the low- 60s across the area.

Please see Marine and Coastal FLooding sections below for more impacts this weekend.

For the latest forecasts on Tropical Storm Ophelia, refer to the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov and/or the NWS New York office's tropical page at weather.gov/okx/tropical

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low pressure along the Delmarva Monday morning will be weakening through the day and into Monday night as upper ridging across northern Canada builds southward, and heights rise slowly across the region. There are guidance differences as to how far north the precipitation shield will extend and for what period of time, Monday into Monday night. As the high and upper ridge build southward during this period the surface low drifts southward with the precipitation ending north to south.
The NBM probabilities are a little to high and north and used a blend of the NBM and GFS. The high builds southward into New England Wednesday and then remains through Friday. A prolonged easterly flow around the high will keep the region cool through the week, with temperatures 5 to as much as 10 degrees below normal. Thursday night into Friday precipitation may return as the weak, to nearly dissipated low along the Carolina and mid Atlantic coast begins to deepen. Again there is uncertainty as to how far north the upper closed low, and surface low, will move into the ridge, and at this time leaned more toward the NBM probabilities.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
*High impact aviation weather expected Today*

Tropical Storm Ophelia moves inland over the Carolinas overnight into Sat morning and starts to lift northward. Rain and MVFR conditions will develop towards 09Z....IFR expected to develop by 15- 16Z and last into early Sat evening. The rain will become more widespread and become moderate to locally heavy from 15-16z and last until 20-21Z.

ENE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt overnight. For today the strongest winds likely at coastal terminals and points east, with an isolated gust of around 35 kt possible. The wind direction is not expected to change, remaining NE through the day.
Timing of the peak winds is mid to late morning and into the mid to late afternoon. Winds should decrease slightly toward Sat evening.

LLWS remains a possibility towards midday - early afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Best chances for LLWS will be across the coastal terminals.

.NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of any flight category changes may be off by an hour or two and amendments are likely through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR or lower likely in rain with possible embedded thunder. Gusty winds to 25 kt possible.

Monday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions have become rough on the ocean waters today and will start to become rough for NY Harbor and the South Shore Bays tonight. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect tonight for all ocean waters, NY Harbor and South Shore Bays with a Small Craft Advisory starting for the the LI Sound and Eastern Bays at 6pm. All Small Craft Advisories will continue through 8am Sunday except for ocean waters which will be upgraded to a Gale Warning 6am Saturday.

Saturday gusts across ocean waters will be 35-40 kts with 10-13 ft waves. SUnday winds and waves gradually subside, starting with gusts of 25 kts reducing to 15 kts. Waves will drop from 10 feet Sunday morning to 7 feet by Sunday night.

A prolonged period of east to northeast flow remains Monday through at least Wednesday night between high pressure centered across eastern Canada and weak low pressure remaining off the Delmarva to mid Atlantic coast. Winds and gusts will briefly diminish late Wednesday into Wednesday night as the high pushes farther to the south and the low weakens. Then Thursday into Friday the easterly flow increases as low pressure deepens along the Carolina and mid Atlantic coast. Small craft advisory conditions will be on-going across all the the non ocean forecast waters, with the exception of New York Harbor, Monday and Monday night, and then just the far eastern Sound into Tuesday. On the ocean waters SCA conditions will be on-going Monday into Wednesday, with a brief lull possible later Wednesday night, before increasing once again Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
Storm total rainfall of near 2 to 3 inches forecast for much of the region from late tonight through Monday morning. Maximum hourly rates appear to be mainly around a quarter to half inch.
There will be a low chance for flash flooding especially for any locations that get locally more than 3 inches and if those locations are poor drainage and low-lying.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a high rip current risk for all Atlantic facing beaches through Sunday due to long period easterly wind waves and E/S swells

A high surf advisory has been issued for all coastal zones of Long Island, including the ocean shorelines of Brooklyn and Queens for Saturday into Sunday morning. Breaking waves of 6 to 10 ft are forecast from a combo of E/S long period swells. This will lead to beach flooding and erosion, with scattered areas of dune erosion.
The threat for localized overwashes is low at this point. Surf will subside to 4 to 7 Sunday afternoon, but could continue at that level into early next week with onshore flow.

Strengthening E/NE flow ahead of an approaching warm front will allow for surge of 1 1/2-2 ft to develop for the Sat aft/eve high tide, resulting in minor coastal flooding along the Lower NY/NJ Harbor, Jamaica Bay, Great South Bay of Nassau County, as well as coastal Westchester and Fairfield counties. Elsewhere across LI and NYC, generally localized minor coastal flooding expected due to combo of wave action and elevated water levels.

Another round of localized minor coastal flooding is likely for Lower NY/NJ harbor and southern bays of NYC/LI on Sunday with a persistent but weakened onshore flow. Additional rounds of minor coastal flooding are possible for next week as astronomical tides continue to increase, and E/NE flow possibly strengthening depending on evolution of TS Ophelia.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ074.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Cold Spring Harbor
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Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT     6.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:00 PM EDT     1.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:17 PM EDT     7.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cold Spring Harbor, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:50 AM EDT     0.78 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:24 PM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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