Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laurel Hollow, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
The fcst is on track. High pressure centered near Lake Ontario will build SE toward the area tonight. Gusty NW-N winds late this afternoon should settle down this eve with loss of daytime heating/mixing and also veer NE then E as the high builds closer. Ideal radiational cooling conds under mostly clear skies and light winds should allow temps to fall to the 50s in the NYC metro area into the 40s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As the high passes offshore, E winds to start should veer SE in the morning and then S by afternoon. The onshore flow should lead to cooler daytime temps than those of Sunday despite plenty of sunshine but still above the warmest of the MOS guidance, from the upper 60s and lower 70s across Long Island and southern CT, to the mid 70s from NYC north/west.

High clouds will start to increase late day Mon into Mon night, also also lower/thicken mainly across the NYC metro area and the lower Hudson Valley late Mon night, with only slight chance of a shower late for NYC and NE NJ. With the continued onshore flow low temps should be in the 50s across the majority of the CWA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The models have shown decent consistency thru the extended, so the NBM has generally been followed.

Chances for shwrs for the entire period, although it will not rain the whole time. It is too far out to pinpoint exact coverage and timing, but it does appear that there has been a trend to a slower onset for Tue, particularly ern areas. This seems reasonable with high pres parked offshore. Perhaps more coverage on Wed as the upr low approaches the region. Theta-e increases, and it is likely there will be some shrtwv energy embedded in the flow.

It becomes more unstable on Thu with rising temps. H5 trof still over the area should support initiation, so some shwrs and tstms possible especially in the aftn/eve.

As the next upr low drops out of Canada on Fri, the flow will become more wly aloft across the area, and temps begin to surge towards 80, especially W of the Hudson. There could be another round of shwrs and tstms with energy embedded in the flow, but confidence is low this far out.

Another warm day on Sat before a cold frontal passage late in the day or early Sun per the current progs. This would bring additional chances for shwrs and tstms.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR as high pressure remains in control.

Winds lighten and veer NE, then E-SE overnight. SE-S winds around 10 kt for Monday. Increasing cloud cover thru the period, but cigs remain VFR.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: VFR to start, becoming MVFR or lower with showers developing.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower and showers possible, mainly NYC terminals and west.

Tuesday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR cond possible especially near the coast at KJFK/KISP/KHPN/KBDR/KGON, otherwise MVFR cond expected. Chance of showers.

Wednesday and Thursday: MVFR cond expected, IFR or lower cond possible at times. Showers likely. E-SE winds G20kt possible on Wed.

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR and showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds should remain blw SCA lvls on all waters through the period. Ocean seas however should build aoa 5 ft early Wed thru the day on Thu before subsiding again blw sca lvls for Fri and Sat.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.