Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Laurel Hollow, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:29PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 4:25 AM EDT (08:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:37PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1112 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of tstms late this evening. Chance of showers.
Tue..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1112 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A back door cold front moves across from the east tonight. This front will lift back into the waters on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurel Hollow, NY
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location: 40.87, -73.47     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 070520 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 120 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A back door cold front passes to the southwest tonight. The front will return northward as a warm front on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through the area late this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Forecast basically on track this hour as scattered shower potential continues overnight for S and W portions of Tri-State. Shortwave energy approaching from the west as noted on GOES-16 6.19um channel and stalled front just to the SW. Updates made this cycle to temperatures and cloud cover across eastern part of the forecast area to reflect current observation trends.

Seasonably mild and humid night, with stratus/fog development likely across southeastern coastal areas, and across interior, particularly where earlier rain fell.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. The front returns nwd on Tue as a warm front. Considerable cloudiness is possible due to convective debris and the return of the front. Some shwrs are possible, especially wrn areas where there is the best convergence and some increasing instability. Embedded tstms chances across these wrn areas in the the aftn and eve. Shwrs and possible tstms Tue night. Although sfc based CAPE is low, some elevated activity ahead of the warm front possible which is why chances for tstms were included across nrn zones.

High temps were a blend between the CONSALL and NBM. Tricky fcst due to the cloud cover and chances for rain. Breaks could result in a quick warmup late in the day across swrn zones. The blended fcst is between the cooler NAM and the warmer MAV. Tue ngt temps were the NBM.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development on Tuesday due to combined se swell and wind wave.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. The region will lie on the northern edge of broad CONUS ridging through the week. This will be a dirty ridge with a broad upper low over the Mississippi River Valley today slowly shearing/lifting toward the area to end the week. Thereafter, models with better agreement of amplifying northern stream troughing approaching/entering the area this weekend, and likely remaining over the area through at least early next week. Before then, a midweek northern stream shortwave moving through S Quebec will buckle the ridge enough to provide a trigger for afternoon diurnal convection, particularly Wed.

A warm front is expected to move north of the area by early Wednesday morning, with some indication of an earlier mentioned very weak shortwave/buckling of trough moving through aloft. This will present a trigger for late afternoon/early eve isolated to scattered convection Wed, although the focus is a bit more vague at this point and (higher terrain, weak lee troughing, perhaps sea breeze boundary), potentially compounded by some weak capping. Models indicating quite a bit of cloud cover on Wednesday, trending temps a bit cooler than what it looked like 24 hours. High temps climbing into the mid to upper 80s, around 90 for NYC/NJ metro. Highest potential for heat indices in mid 90s across NE NJ, and possibly into NYC and Lower Hud as Td's climb into the lower 70s.

Heights rebound on Thursday, but progress of the earlier mentioned shearing southern closed low will have to be monitored as it starts lifting towards the Mid-Atlantic. Models coming into better agreement on the evolution of this feature and its associated surface wave/low, with better consensus on (Friday into Saturday morning time period). So at this time this feature appears to be far enough SW/S of the region on Thursday, for another hot and humid day. No distinct trigger for convection on Thursday aside for some convectively induced vort energy riding ahead of the southern low. So a conditional potential for isolated convection off terrain and seabreeze boundaries in a likely unstable, but capped and weakly shear environment. Temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s likely for Thursday, particularly away from S and E coasts, with heat indices of 95-100 possible as Td's climb into lower 70s to 75.

Forecast details coming into somewhat better alignment for Friday into the weekend, dependent on the evolution of the southern low as it lifts/shears up the coast. Solid model agreement in a northern stream trough amplifying down through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and drifting to the East Coast through the weekend.

The trend with the southern low trend is for it to work up towards the area Friday, and then working north over the area Friday Night into Saturday morning. Still some run to run and model to model inconsistency to be ironed out, in terms of the track/speed of the low up the coastal plain or just offshore, degree of intensification, and whether it acquires any tropical characteristics. NHC is monitoring the southern system for potential tropical or subtropical development this week, giving it a 40% chance over the next 5 days as it potentially emerges off the Carolina coast. Main threat is for a period of excessive rainfall during the Fri-Sat timeframe, with a swath of heavy rainfall likely along and to the right of its path as it taps into a warm conveyor belt of Gulf and subtropical Atlantic moisture. Still low confidence on location of this heavy rain potential, as well as potential for breezy conditions on the east side of the low, as a potential 30-40 kt llj develops.

Better agreement that mean troughing will be sliding towards the east coast through the weekend, with a series of surface troughs moving through the area. Potential is increasing for a return to hot and humid conditions for the weekend, with chances for diurnal convection. Each successive trough Sunday into early next week, will bring a potential for diurnal convection as well as a gradual trend to a more seasonable airmass early next week.

There is a low to moderate risk of rip current development on Tuesday due to a minimal residual e and se swell, and a southerly wind wave.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A weak cold front slowly drops south of the terminals tonight then returns on Tuesday as a warm front.

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected through the overnight. some IFR conditions at may develop at KSWF, KHPN, KBDR, KISP, and KTEB overnight for a period, mainly between 08-12Z. The MVFR conditions are then expected to continue into Tuesday morning before gradually improving to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible on Tuesday afternoon for all terminals between 17Z- 00Z, though confidence is low on coverage. There is a chance that MVFR conditions return after 00z Wednesday.

SE to ESE winds will continue tonight at around 10 kt before gradually diminishing to around 5 kt overnight. ESE winds will then increase to 5-10 kt Tuesday morning and become S/SE 10-15 kts by the afternoon at all terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday night. Chance of MVFR or lower. Wednesday-Thursday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly from the NYC metros north/west. Friday-Saturday. MVFR or lower conditions possible in rain. Chance Chance E-SE gusts 20-25kt.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions expected through mid week though waves over the ocean remain between 3-4 feet. SCA seas are likely Friday into the weekend with a persistent S/SW flow and strengthening wind fields owing to a possible coastal low nearing the region.

HYDROLOGY. A localized urban and poor drainage flooding threat exists with any isolated thunderstorm activity Wed and Thu, as it will be slow moving and able to tap into a very moist environment.

There is increasing potential for more widespread downpour/thunderstorm activity and resultant urban and poor drainage flooding threat during the Friday into Saturday morning period. More details as the week progresses.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and high astronomical tides (full moon) will have water levels approach minor flood thresholds once again tonight, but they are expected to remain just below minor flood benchmarks.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . NV NEAR TERM . DBR/NV SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . NV AVIATION . BC MARINE . NV HYDROLOGY . NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 8 mi100 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 1 ft67°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 14 mi55 min E 5.8 G 5.8 71°F 69°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi55 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 70°F 1020 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 26 mi55 min SE 6 G 7 69°F 70°F1019.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 31 mi55 min 72°F 73°F1019.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi55 min ESE 8 G 9.9 73°F 1019.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi35 min ESE 9.7 G 12 75°F3 ft1018.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi55 min 72°F 76°F1019.1 hPa
MHRN6 40 mi55 min ESE 4.1 G 8
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 40 mi55 min ESE 5.1 G 7 72°F 76°F1019.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi55 min SSE 5.1 G 6 69°F 73°F1019.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi35 min SSE 12 G 16 71°F 76°F3 ft1019.2 hPa70°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY10 mi32 minESE 510.00 miOvercast72°F66°F84%1019.7 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY20 mi29 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F64°F90%1019.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY20 mi29 minE 610.00 miOvercast69°F66°F93%1019.8 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi34 minE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F68°F90%1019.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi34 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F66°F79%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3N3NE5NE9NE4SE33S10SE8SE11SE12SE15SE9E11SE9E9SE10SE9E9SE11E7SE8E5
1 day agoSW6S5SW6SW7W11W6W4CalmS7S9S8SW9S9S11S11S7S6S5S4S4S4SW3CalmCalm
2 days agoN7NE7NE7NE9NE5NE8N10N9E5NE5E7S10S8S7S9S7S7S7S4S4S4SW5S4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Cold Spring Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:52 AM EDT     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:58 AM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:16 PM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.2-00.20.710.70.30-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.10.10.50.90.90.40.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.