Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laurel Hollow, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:05PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:25 AM EDT (13:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:16AMMoonset 3:14PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 720 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Slight chance of light rain or drizzle late this morning and early afternoon. Chance of rain or slight chance of drizzle late.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Rain.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 720 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal system approaches today and passes across the waters tonight. High pressure follows Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low pressure then approaches on Friday and passes through Friday night. High pressure returns for Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurel Hollow, NY
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location: 40.87, -73.47     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221130
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
730 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
A frontal system approaches today and passes across the region
tonight. High pressure follows Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure then approaches on Friday and passes through Friday
night. High pressure returns for most of the weekend with a
weakening system approaching by Sunday night into Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast is mostly on track with only some of the hourly
forecast elements adjusted to reflect the latest trends.

An occluded and vertically stacked low pressure system over the
upper midwest will lift into ontario today. A frontal system
associated with the low will slowly approach from the west through
the day. High pressure over the canadian maritimes also ridges down
the new england coast ahead of the front.

Weak low level warm advection takes place this morning and afternoon
as the upper trough associated with the low approach. Saturation
is likely between 1 kft and 5 kft, but the middle levels remain
dry. No significant rain is anticipated during the morning and
afternoon due to the middle level dry air and surface ridging
from high pressure to our north. The low level moisture and warm
advection may be enough to produce spotty light rain or drizzle
this morning and early afternoon. Pops will increase a bit late
in the day as the front nears, but much of the widespread rain
should holds off until after 6pm.

High temperatures today should end up near to slightly below normal
in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
The front will move across the tri-state tonight. A weak wave of low
pressure may develop along the front as shortwave energy rounds the
base of the upper trough. Strengthening low level s-sw winds ahead
of the front are also expected. These ingredients support a band of
rain tonight. The steadiest rain is forecast to occur from around
00z to about 06z for much of the area. The rain will begin to taper
off from west to east after 06z, ending across eastern long island
and southeast connecticut around daybreak Wednesday. Rainfall
amounts range from 0.50 to 0.75 inches, highest north and west of
nyc. Soundings indicate little to no instability, so thunder has
been left out of the forecast.

The front quickly moves offshore by daybreak Wednesday. High
pressure will build to our south and west through the day. The
atmosphere dries out quickly and mostly sunny skies are anticipated.

Temperatures should be able to warm a few degrees above normal in
the lower and middle 60s for highs.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
High pressure builds in Wednesday night with its ridge axis shifting
through on Thursday before it weakens offshore into Thursday night.

A mostly clear sky will prevail through the period with temperatures
within a few degrees of normal. Some frost may form Wednesday night
in some of the outlying suburbs with good radiational cooling
conditions.

Sided with wpc ECMWF canadian regarding the weather pattern for
Friday and Saturday. Operational GFS differs, but GEFS mean surface
progs appear to give better support to wpc ECMWF canadian. A weak
low and jet streak dynamics bring low chances of showers Friday
afternoon and evening, then high pressure builds in to keep Saturday
dry. A frontal system then approaches on Sunday with overrunning
showers possible ahead of a warm front. Rain chances then increase
Sunday night with the approach of the trailing cold front. The front
weakens as it runs into ridging aloft across the northeast on
Monday, but will include a slight chance of showers for the day.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
Low pressure system and a cold front approach today and move
across the region tonight.

MVFR ifr ceilings are overspreading the region this morning and
will remain in place through much of the TAF period. We will
generally see ceiling heights between 1000-1500 ft for much of
the day time, then ifr or lower ceilings develop around 00z.

Expect light rain showers or drizzle to develop during the
afternoon hours, becoming a more steady rain this evening and
into the overnight. In addition, expect some lowered
visibility. There is some uncertainty with the arrival time of
lower conditions.

Ne-n winds averaging around 5-10kt. Winds veer more ene late
afternoon and evening. Southerly winds prior to the frontal
passage will be possible in the late evening. Winds become
northerly behind the cold front between 06-12z Wednesday.

Conditions start to improve after 09z as the front crosses the
region, winds turn to the northwest, and drier air moves into
the area.

Outlook for 12z Wednesday through Saturday
Wednesday-Thursday Vfr. Chc W gusts 20-25kt on weds.

Friday-Saturday Chc MVFR and rain Fri pm into Sat am.

Marine
The small craft advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters
through Wednesday evening. A cold front approaches today and
moves across the waters tonight. Elevated ocean seas will
continue through Wednesday, mainly due to easterly swells.

However, wind gusts on the ocean increase late tonight and could
reach 25 kt into Wednesday morning behind the front which may
help to keep seas elevated as swells diminish Wednesday. Seas
begin to subside Wednesday afternoon along with winds falling
below 25 kt.

Winds subside through Wednesday night with conditions falling below
advisory levels. A high pressure ridge and weak pressure gradient
then bring tranquil conditions across the waters Thursday, which
continues through Friday. Winds then pick up a little on Saturday,
but conditions should remain below advisory levels.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated from 0.50 to 0.75 inches of
rain late today and tonight.

No hydrologic impacts are forecast Wednesday into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels during this afternoons high tide along the south
shore back bays will likely fall short of minor coastal flood
benchmarks. No statements have been issued at this time based on
the latest forecast water levels.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for anz350-353-
355.

Synopsis... Jc ds
near term... Ds
short term... Ds
long term... Jc
aviation... Bc
marine... Jc ds
hydrology... Jc ds
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 8 mi41 min E 16 G 19 56°F 1 ft50°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 14 mi41 min E 14 G 16 57°F 32°F55°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi56 min SE 2.9 G 6 55°F 61°F1018.8 hPa
44069 23 mi56 min NE 7.8 G 12 55°F 56°F53°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 26 mi62 min NE 6 G 9.9 52°F 60°F1018.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 31 mi56 min 58°F 61°F1017.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi56 min ESE 13 G 15 57°F 1017.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi36 min E 14 G 18 60°F 62°F5 ft1017.8 hPa56°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi56 min 57°F 61°F1017.4 hPa
MHRN6 40 mi56 min E 9.9 G 13
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 40 mi56 min E 13 G 17 57°F 58°F1017.8 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi56 min NE 8 G 8.9 51°F 59°F1019.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi36 min E 12 G 14 60°F 61°F7 ft1018.5 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY10 mi33 minE 1010.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1018.5 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY20 mi90 minE 510.00 miOvercast51°F42°F71%1018.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY20 mi90 minNE 610.00 miOvercast54°F53°F97%1018.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi35 minE 1110.00 miOvercast57°F55°F93%1017.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi35 minE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F51°F81%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13
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NE9N10NE10NE10--NE5NE4NE3N3NE4E4NE3E3NE3NE5NE6N4NE8NE3NE5NE5NE4E10
1 day agoE5SE6SE8SE8SE6E6E4E6E6NE6NE6NE10NE9NE9NE10NE11NE10NE13NE11N11NE11NE10N9NE11
G20
2 days agoN6NW5Calm4SW8S10SW8SW7SW6S4CalmNE3N3NE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cold Spring Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:06 AM EDT     0.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:33 PM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.90.60.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.20.40.80.90.40-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.