Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sands Point, NY

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sands Point, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 050654 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 254 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure weakens and drifts to the west tonight as weak low pressure develops east of New England. Weak low pressure will remain nearly stationary over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes through the end of next week. Weak high pressure builds in for Saturday. A cold front approaches late Saturday into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Forecast largely on track this evening. There has been a bit of a break in the stratocu over portions of Long Island and Connecticut this evening. However, think this will fill back in as cloud cover advects southwestward around the developing low off the New England coast.

Weak high pressure continues to drift westward into tonight as a low pressure system develops off the New England coast, courtesy of an upper level trough that remains spinning over the area. This developing surface low will result in mostly cloudy to overcast conditions for at least the eastern half of the area tonight. Clouds should end up more scattered along and west of the Hudson River. Some low level moisture may result in a few light showers or sprinkles into the overnight, mainly for SE CT and Eastern Long Island. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A persistent pattern remains in place as the trough continues spinning overhead and a surface low spins to our east. A northerly flow will gradually shift more to the northwest by mid morning, brining in some drier mid-level air that will allow for much of the cloud cover to break up during much of the day on Monday, mainly for western areas. This will allow for temperatures to rise back up to average values, mainly in the middle to upper 70s for the western CWA. Eastern portions will remain under fair to mostly cloudy skies with temperature remaining in the upper 60s to near 70, though conditions look to remain dry during the day.

Monday night, another piece of energy approaches the area from the northwest as it makes it's way into the western periphery of the trough spinning overhead. This will result in increased cloud cover as well as a chance of a light shower, mainly after midnight, Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, a mostly dry night is expected with lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A well established omega block begins the long term period, with a stacked low pressure over New England and the Canadian Maritimes and an upper level low over southern California, and high amplitude ridge over the center of the country.

With the stacked low over New England, troughs will rotate around the low, one of which will be a cold front on Tuesday. This will mean precipitation chances throughout the long term, with the highest chances occurring during the day during peak heating of the afternoon into the early evening hours, as surface heating coupled with the cold pool aloft increases the lower to mid level lapse rates. There is a few hundred J/kg of surface instability noted in the models, mainly Tuesday, Thursday, and Wednesday. Along with some elevated instability and inverted V forecast soundings, convection is possible during this period, mainly north and west of New York City. However, the best locations for general precipitation will be for northern and eastern sections of the forecast area, as these areas will be closer to the low.

The upper low remains over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes through the end of next week, then finally weakens into a high amplitude trough over the eastern U.S. late Friday which continues to slowly weaken into next weekend as the upper level pattern breaks down with the approach of a cold front over south central Canada. However this front should remain well to the north and west even into Saturday and may begin to move through the forecast area late Sunday.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR cigs at KGON this morning, otherwise VFR as low pressure develops off the New England coast, while high pressure remains to the west.

A light N flow should back more to the NW before daybreak, then increase to around or just over 10 kt with some gusts between 15-20 kt mainly this afternoon.

Wind speeds begin to diminish toward sunset, and a light S-SW flow could develop at KGON and possibly KBDR.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

NW flow on Monday should prevent sea breeze development.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR cond with any afternoon/evening showers and isolated thunderstorms with MVFR.
NW winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and early evening showers each day, mainly N of the NYC metros.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions remain for the easternmost ocean zone with wave heights near 5 feet and gusts up to 25 kt through much of tonight with a developing weak low pressure system well to the east.
Elsewhere, sub-SCA conditions are expected. Winds and waves look to drop below SCA thresholds for the eastern ocean by 12Z Monday. Winds and waves will then remain below SCA levels through Friday as the pressure gradient remains relatively weak.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A coastal flood statement remains for the south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau, southern Westchester, and southern Fairfield tonight. Any additional minor flooding at this time looks to be brief and minor.

A deepening offshore low east of New England tonight into Monday will produce an easterly swell in addition to Ekman transport with a prolonged northerly flow offshore. Guidance is suggesting waters levels could be a bit higher for Monday night.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents Monday and Tuesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Kings Point, NY

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KLGA

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Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Davids Island, New York

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