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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 943 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 943 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Weak high pressure builds in today, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure moves in Thursday and weakens Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into Friday night. High pressure offshore builds offshore Saturday. Offshore high pressure area moves farther away farther out into atlantic Saturday night.

FXUS61 KOKX 051441 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 941 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure builds in today, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure moves in Thursday and weakens Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into Friday night. High pressure offshore builds offshore Saturday. Offshore high pressure area moves farther away farther out into Atlantic Saturday night. A strong frontal system approaches from the west Sunday with an associated cold front moving across Sunday night. High pressure returns for early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments, mainly for temperature and dew point.

Low pressure associated with an upper-level shortwave pushes offshore with weak ridging expected today in between as a deepening trough approaches from the west. A surface high pressure will build in along with the ridge. This should allow for partly to mostly sunny skies today. Northwest winds will gradually weaken throughout the day as the pressure gradient weakens with high pressure building in. General northwesterly flow with cold air advection also happening aloft will limit afternoon highs to the low to mid 40s.

A trough will deepen and track towards the eastern US tonight, advecting mid-level moisture back in this evening, increasing cloud cover. The deepening trough, which is centered more to our south, with initiate cyclogenesis off of the North Carolina coast. With a weak pressure gradient in place and strong cold air advection (despite increased cloud cover) we should see cold temperatures tonight. Interior areas below freezing in the upper-20s with coastal areas at or near freezing. The only exceptions are in the LI Pine Barrens which may dip into the mid/upper-20s and the NYC metro in the mid-30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
A strengthening surface low will move into the open Atlantic well to our south on Wednesday. The pressure gradient will however increase north winds primarily for coastal areas where wind gusts increasing to 20-25 mph late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Several CAMs show a surface trough trying to kick up some isolated precip along the northern fringes of the low pressure system to our south. This could also be helped synoptically as we will be situated in the left exit region of an approaching jet streak oriented NW to SE to our northwest. Any precip that does occur will be light and likely occur in the morning to early afternoon. With high temperatures only in the low-40s to upper-30s, both rain and snow showers will be possible depending on what time the shower passes through. Regardless, precip chances will be low and any that do do occur should remain isolated. The best chances will be on eastern LI and in SE CT since these areas will be closest to the surface trough's axis.
BY late Wednesday afternoon, any remaining precip (if any)
should have cleared and moved south, with clouds beginning to clear with dry air being advected in from the north.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Rain looking more likely for the latter half of the upcoming weekend, with gusty winds, potentially up to near 40 mph.
Uncertainty stems from timing and pressure differences with the frontal system for this so changes are likely with subsequent forecasts.

Forecast relatively coldest day Thursday and warmest day Sunday. The jet stream will still be positioned south of the region Wednesday night and then more across the local region for Thursday night. The jet levels overall exhibit a ridging pattern Thursday through the first half of the weekend and then a strong southerly jet develops Saturday night. The strong southerly jet approaches for Sunday. The cold airmass over the area Wednesday night into Thursday will gradually moderate and further exhibit increasing temperatures on average with warm air advection this weekend. High temperatures decline Monday back towards normal values for this time of year.

From large scale forecast models, the mid levels convey the trough axis moving well out into the Atlantic Wednesday night. At the surface, the pressure gradient will still be rather steep so gusty NW flow can be expected along the coast Wednesday night. While most of the gusts will be Wednesday evening in the 15 to 20 mph range, locations along the coast could reach up to 25 mph for Wednesday evening for gusts. There could even be some gusts up to near 20 mph for these locations overnight.

There will be a steady ridging trend in the mid levels for Thursday through Friday night. The ridge axis in the large scale forecast models depict the mid level ridge axis right over the local area for early Saturday.

The pressure gradient at the surface relaxes but does not totally weaken Thursday into Thursday night. The pressure gradient weakens more Friday into Friday night. While some gusts up to near 20 mph can be expected, especially along the coast, for Thursday into Thursday evening, no further gusts are expected thereafter through Friday night.

For the first half of the weekend, large scale forecast models convey a trough diving southward into Texas, with resulting upstream ridging across the Eastern US. The ridge axis will be shifting east of the local area. At the surface, high pressure will be offshore Saturday and will move farther offshore Saturday night. Meanwhile, a parent low approaching the Great Lakes is forecast to intensify.

For the latter half of the weekend, the large scale models show a deep mid level trough approaching from the southwest. At the surface, a frontal system approaches from the west with parent low continuing to strengthen into the Great Lakes. The frontal system and its associated cold front move across Sunday night, which is shown later in ECMWF model compared with the Canadian model with GFS exhibiting the most rapid speed of the front.

High pressure then returns for early next week as it builds in from the west. Forecast models show mid level SW flow after trough exits.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure slowly builds in through tonight.

VFR. West winds 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt or less, veering NW tonight.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK may be only occasional through tonight, and might not occur at all from approx 22z-03z. Occasional gusts 15-19kt possible for KTEB through tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. NNW gusts near 20kt afternoon into night, mainly coastal terminals.

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions are expected for all waters outside of an occasional gust to 25 kt on the ocean and an occasional wave near 5 feet this morning. Winds and waves continue to decrease today and through tonight. Sub-SCA conditions will persist through Wednesday afternoon.

Potential for SCA wind gusts on ocean Wednesday night with otherwise sub-SCA conditions for Thursday through Saturday night.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through this weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.

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Davids Island
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:19 AM EST     6.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:23 AM EST     1.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:45 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:23 PM EST     6.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:36 PM EST     1.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Davids Island, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:30 AM EST     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:43 AM EST     0.81 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:45 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:01 PM EST     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:07 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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