Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sands Point, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Key Points:

* Bitterly cold tonight with temperatures falling into the single digits and teens; coldest air since February for most.

Higher cloud deck lingers over the region through this evening as low pressure tracks off the Carolina coast, though this should begin to erode overnight. Closer to home, a 1030 mb surface high pressure centered near the eastern Great Lakes builds over the region, with winds lightening into this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The lighter flow could allow for more efficient radiative cooling overnight and continued to blend in MOS guidance to better capture this potential. Either way, very cold, better than 15 degrees below climo, with temperatures falling back into the single digits inland, and the teens along the coast. Given the weak winds, wind chills will be close to actual temperatures and no cold headlines warranted. Dry conditions prevail.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Key Points:

* Gradual warm up into midweek, with highs back in the 40s on Wednesday.

* A couple of quick moving low pressure systems brush or impact the area Tuesday night through early Thursday. Best chance for wintry precipitation will be northwest of NYC on Wednesday, but even these locations likely change to plain rain.

High pressure over the region shifts offshore on Tuesday, and SW flow sets up by the afternoon. This will help modify air mass in place, first for coastal areas from the marine influence with SSTs still around 50, then regionwide by Wednesday with persistent WAA. So while Tuesday remains unseasonably cold, temperatures climb above the freezing mark into the mid to upper 30s along the coast by afternoon, with upper 20s inland.

A more active pattern begins to develop into midweek as a series of shortwaves move east in the progressive upper flow, introducing a couple of chances for precipitation. First system quickly passes through New England Tuesday night, though limited moisture and weak forcing this far south should keep most dry.
Best chance of seeing any light snow is across southeast CT, though PoPs here sit at only chance (25-30%), and wouldn't be surprised if most remain entirely dry. Any coastal precip could mix with or fall as light rain given marginal BL temperatures, but again, QPF is light, a few hundredths at most.

This first system quickly scoots away north and east, with a more potent shortwave following behind it Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will bring a better chance for a more widespread precipitation, though with a warming column, the bulk of the precip looks to fall as rain, particularly along the coast. North and west of NYC, ptype could start out as snow, or a mix, until the WAA wins out enough to force a changeover to plain rain. Any accumulation is likely either light or negligible before the changeover and temperatures Wednesday look to get into the 40s for most. Wind speeds increase Wednesday afternoon with the associated LLJ moving overhead, and leaned on NBM90 for winds in this period given the guidance's low bias with these regimes. After the initial wave, dry slot likely comes in later Wednesday, and any lingering precip likely tapers as a light rain as conditions dry out further Wed Night into thursday behind the attendant cold frontal passage.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Points:

* Temperatures will be at least several degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday, then trend even colder early next week.

* A clipper low will pass to the south Friday night into Saturday morning, with a chance of light snow. This still does not look like a significant winter weather event.

It will be brisk and cold Thursday into Friday after a cold frontal passage, and as the pressure gradient tightens up between high pressure building to our southwest and low pressure intensifying over eastern Canada. Winds relax Friday afternoon as the high moves off the Southeast coast. ECMWF and its ensemble are consistent on the idea of a clipper low passing to the south Fri night/Sat but not on its track or strength, with the 07/12Z cycle showing the low passing just south of the CWA and delivering a light snowfall capable of meeting advisory criteria inland, while the 00Z cycle shows northern stream energy much slower to enter the picture, allowing shortwave ridging in its advance over Ontario to shunt the low even farther south, with minimal snowfall. Incoming 12Z ECMWF is in between these two ideas, so less suppressed but still lighter on potential snowfall. So the overall idea is that the energy with this system looks too disjointed to be capable of delivering more than a sub-advisory light snowfall.

More importantly, colder air will come in behind this system for early next week, with already below normal temps dropping to 10 or more degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday. e.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure will build in from the west this afternoon and settle over the terminals tonight.

VFR prevails.

N to NNW winds with gusts up to around 25 kt. Can not rule out a few occasional gusts to near 30 kt. N winds begin to diminish this afternoon, with gusts ending towards 20-21z as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds fall below 10kt this evening and become light and variable early Tuesday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An occasional gust to 30 kt can not be ruled through early afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday afternoon: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt late day/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the afternoon and into the evening. S-SW 10-15g25-30 kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late in the day or at night. W gusts around 20 kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts 20- 25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Gusty N winds diminish into late day and conditions lower below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria on non ocean waters by late afternoon and on the ocean by early evening as high pressure builds over the region.

A series of clipper systems will then impact the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A brief period of gales remains possible on the ocean Tuesday evening and night, before a better chance of gales develops Wednesday afternoon and evening. SCA conditions likely on all waters at the least during this period.
SCA cond likely on all waters Thu into Thu night, with W-NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and some gusts on the ocean approaching minimal gale force. Seas Thu AM start out at 8-11 ft E of Fire Island Inlet and 5-8 ft W of there, gradually subsiding to 5-6 ft E and 3-5 ft W by daybreak Fri.

Any lull in wind gusts/seas just below 25 kt/5 ft on the ocean late Fri into Fri night will be short lived, as winds increase with passage of a low to our south, and cold air advection in its wake.
SCA cond likely on the ocean late Fri night, then developing on all waters Sat afternoon as flow veers from W to NW. Some gusts on the ocean once again could approach minimal gale force Sat night as seas build to 4-7 ft.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.