Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Northampton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:26PM Monday December 16, 2019 3:02 AM EST (08:02 UTC) Moonrise 10:14PMMoonset 11:53AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1043 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1043 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will briefly build over the waters overnight, then drift offshore on Monday. Low pressure will approach later Monday and impacts the region Monday night and Tuesday before moving northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front will approach on Wednesday and move across Wednesday night, followed by high pressure Thursday through Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, NY
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location: 40.88, -72.72     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 160624 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 124 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure briefly builds over the region tonight, then drifts offshore Monday. A low pressure system approaches the region Monday and impacts the region Monday night and Tuesday before moving northeast to the Northern Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. A polar front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure moves in for Thursday through Friday night. The high lifts farther north of the area next weekend with possible close approach of offshore low pressure.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Just made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures, dewpoints, and cloud coverage to better match observed trends. Forecast overall is on track.

High pressure will build over the region tonight with dry conditions expected. Winds will gradually weaken, becoming light and variable west of NYC, and less than 10kt elsewhere from the west. This high will keep a warm front south of the area tonight. Lows will fall into the 20s and 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Monday starts off with high pressure over the region, which will gradually shift to the east through the day. Meanwhile, a warm front will remain south of the area with precipitation gradually developing along the front.

The 12z forecast guidance, along with some of the early 18z guidance shows that much of the precipitation will struggle to move into our area as it will struggle with the dry air from the departing high to the northeast. Thinking that if any precipitation falls during the day on Monday, it will be light and mainly in the form of flurries or light snow showers.

By Monday evening, the high pressure moves far enough east to allow precipitation to push its way across the area from south to north. Even with the high nearby, signals of cold air damming will keeping cold air in place across the northern tier for much of Monday night.

In terms of precipitation type, the precipitation should start off as snow everywhere with wet bulb cooling, then quickly transition to a rain/snow mix then to all rain by 06z Tuesday across NYC, Long Island and metro NJ. Elsewhere, a prolonged period of snow and a wintry mix can be expected, with snowfall totals ranging between 1-2 inches and ice accumulations up to 2 tenths of an inch. As a result, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of our northern zones where the highest confidence is for the snow/ice combo. For now, have left coastal CT out of the advisory as confidence is not as high with ice accumulations and more rain may occur. The storm total ice forecast is showing any measurable ice accumulations to remain across the interior and this is where there is higher confidence of obtaining ice accretion. Stay tuned for any additional updates as changes to the forecast may be necessary depending on the timing of the precipitation and the rain/snow line.

Temperatures on Monday will be in the 30s. Monday night, lows will be in the 20s and 30s, with lows occurring very early in the tonight period, and slowly warming through the night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. First of all, the winter weather advisory will be ongoing for interior parts of the region with some additional snow and ice accumulations during Tuesday. All precipitation tapers off Tuesday evening.

Second half of the storm event for Tuesday with the low center moving just south of the local area. 850mb freezing line will be north of the entire CWA during the day and then start to move farther southward with cold air advection on the backside of the low as it moves farther east of the area late afternoon into the evening.

The second half of the storm event will feature a continuation of a wintry mix across the interior including some additional freezing rain while the coast will remain as plain rain as dewpoints are expected to be above freezing. At the end of the event late afternoon into early evening, there could be a brief window of a rain snow mix getting farther southward towards the coast, but only minor accumulations of less than an inch of snow expected and that is across the interior with no snow accumulation expected for the coast. Highs Tuesday will be from the lower 30s across the interior to the upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast.

Conditions will become drier Tuesday night with weak high pressure from the southwest briefly building in. Clouds will decrease and NW winds will lighten. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s as winds will stay up enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling.

A key part to the forecast is temperatures for these went with CONSRaw for temperatures Tuesday and transitioned from CONSRaw to a blend of CONSMOS and NAM12 for Tuesday night.

For the rest of the long term, that high pressure area from the south and west will quickly way on Wednesday to an approaching polar front. This will be accompanied aloft by a very strong mid level shortwave as diagnosed from a strong positive vorticity max.

This will bring some snow shower activity, slight to low end chance Wednesday into Wednesday night. Low confidence on timing and location of snow showers. Not expecting much if any snow accumulation. Much colder airmass moves in Wednesday night and lingers through Friday night. Temperatures are expected to be well below normal. NW flow will be gusty Wednesday night into Thursday night which will help advect in colder air.

For next weekend, the high lifts farther northward. The airmass across the region will moderate. Models convey a vast array of solutions regarding low pressure offshore and its track. A lot of uncertainty in the local forecast in this timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure over the area will drift offshore Monday. Low pressure will approach on Monday.

W-NW winds should gradually diminish to under 10 kt overnight, then as the high passes east winds should become light generally under 5 kt out of the SW-S in the afternoon, then NE-E by evening.

Clouds should start to lower/thicken late in the overnight into Monday. MVFR conds likely to develop mainly after 23Z. For the NYC metro and coastal terminals, wintry mix gradually changing to plain rain, KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain.

Timing of precip and MVFR conds uncertain by a couple of hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Late Monday night. IFR or lower likely. For the NYC metro and coastal terminals rain, for KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain. Tuesday. IFR or lower conds. Wintry mix, possibly changing back to all snow at KSWF before ending. Rain at NYC/NJ metro and coastal terminals, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. N winds G20kt in the afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday and Friday. VFR.

MARINE. Gales have subsided across most waters except for the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet. That gale warning remains until 10 PM tonight. Other gales were replaced with SCA. The SCA for the NY Harbor, Western Long Island Sound, South Shore Bays goes until midnight while the SCA for Eastern Long Island Bays and Eastern Long Island Sound as well as the ocean west of Fire Island Inlet goes until 6 AM Monday.

Ocean seas will be a bit slower to respond with residual S/SE swells, but should fall below SCA from west to east through Monday morning. Sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of Monday and Monday night.

SCA seas return on the ocean Tuesday with otherwise sub-SCA conditions all across the rest of the waters. Winds are below SCA criteria. SCA ocean seas remain through Thursday and then decrease to below SCA Thursday night and remain below SCA Friday into Friday night. For the wind gusts, SCA wind gusts expected Tuesday night across mainly the ocean waters. Wind gusts return to SCA levels on the ocean Wednesday afternoon and all waters have at least SCA level winds Wednesday night through Thursday with potential for gales on the eastern and ocean waters during this timeframe. SCA levels gusts forecast on the eastern and ocean waters Thursday night. Winds are mainly below SCA Friday into Friday night.

HYDROLOGY. Remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT with a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

Another significant precipitation event is likely Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.00 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

No significant widespread precipitation expected from Tuesday night onward through the rest of the forecast.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ005>008. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ067>070. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ002-103. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . BC/JM NEAR TERM . BC/JM SHORT TERM . BC/JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . JE/Goodman MARINE . BC/JM HYDROLOGY . BC/JM EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 23 mi32 min WNW 7.8 G 14 36°F 40°F21°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi44 min WNW 5.1 G 7 33°F 43°F1021.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi50 min WNW 4.1 G 6 44°F1021.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 42 mi50 min 36°F 45°F1021.8 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 45 mi32 min Calm G 1 33°F 1019.2 hPa17°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 46 mi72 min NW 12 G 16 36°F 1 ft20°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 47 mi44 min W 1.9 G 5.1 42°F1021.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi72 min NW 14 G 18 40°F 50°F5 ft1022.3 hPa (+2.3)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY6 mi69 minW 610.00 miFair32°F18°F56%1022.3 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY8 mi66 minWNW 710.00 miFair35°F17°F48%1022.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY21 mi66 minWNW 810.00 miFair33°F19°F56%1022.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmSE7SE7SE6SE7SE8SE7SE6SE6SE4E55E5SE7E6E6E6E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Potunk Point, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York
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Potunk Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:59 AM EST     0.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:59 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:52 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:04 PM EST     0.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.50.40.40.20.10-000.20.30.50.50.60.50.50.30.20.1-0-000.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:57 AM EST     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:08 AM EST     1.60 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:52 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:34 PM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:22 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:44 PM EST     1.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.9-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.7-0.10.51.21.61.41.10.3-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.8-0.20.51.11.31.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.