Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oyster Bay, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
The steadiest light rain across the NYC/NJ metro and Long Island will gradually shift south and east into this evening as low pressure to the southeast works farther offshore. However, with abundant low-level moisture and a potential for weak lift, plan to maintain a low chance of light rain and/or drizzle. High pressure centered near Nova Scotia will build into the area tonight behind the departing low. This will bring in some drier through the night. This should keep Father's Day dry, but with plenty of cloudy clover. Model time height cross sections show mid level dry air with deep moisture below 700 mb. There could be enough drying for some peaks of sun in the afternoon across eastern CT and eastern LI.

Lows tonight will in the mid to upper 50s for much of the area, but around 60 for the NYC metro. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s to around 70. Stayed with the warmer NBM as locations on Saturday overachieved for those locations where the rain stopped. Airmass should be very similar, minus the rain.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Weak high pressure will remain in control even as the center of the high gradually works east out into the North Atlantic.
There will remain plenty of low-level moisture with mostly cloudy conditions lingering for all but eastern LI and SE CT, where there could be breaks in the cloud cover. A weak easterly flow will continue as well with high pressure across the area and a stalled frontal boundary to the south over the Mid Atlantic states.

Lows Sunday night will change little in the mid to upper 50s, except around 60 for the NYC metro. Highs Monday will begin there gradual uptick heading into the upcoming week, around 70 for most locations.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak riding aloft Monday night into Tuesday as the h5 flow gets amplified by a shortwave shifting in to the Ohio Valley. Most of the time is expected to be dry as the mean ridging aloft should help offset any subtle PVA, but left in a slight chance of an afternoon shower across the western half of the forecast area as per NBM. The warm front then moves through during the day Wednesday with rain chances for both Tuesday night due to lift ahead of the front, and for Wednesday with frontal passage itself, followed by increasing instability later in the day.

Global models still disagree regarding when of an amplifying h5 trough axis shifts through within the Thursday night-Friday time frame. GFS has slowed down noticeably in this regard over the past 24 hours, with ECMWF and Canadian more consistently showing the axis shifting through during Friday morning. Not surprisingly, LREF ensemble clusters therefore lean toward the EPS/CMCE camp over GEFS.
Associated cold front is therefore still slated for a Thursday night passage, but before then, a pre-frontal trough may act as a focus for convective initiation in an increasingly unstable air mass. As such, NBM has expanded likely PoPs (60-70%) into most of the Lower Hudson Valley and adjacent spots for Thursday afternoon/early evening. Potential shear and CAPE would lead to the chance of at least strong thunderstorms. Too early in the game to have much confidence in the severe wx potential, but something to watch.
Leaned more toward the 25th percentile NBM for highs on Thursday for most spots, which is still warmer than the deterministic numbers. h8 temps progged at 18-19C without too much convective debris should allow for low-mid 90s in the typically warmest spots. This coupled with dewpoints around 70 could have some heat impacts.

High pressure would then be the dominant feature for Friday and Saturday with only perhaps a weak cold front or trough moving through during Friday night. Cold pool aloft on Friday could help trigger an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High temperatures both days in the 80s and about 3-5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Stationary front remains south of the area as an area of low pressure moves along the boundary today. High pressure builds into the region from the northeast late tonight into Sunday morning.

MVFR or IFR with light rain into late day. Rain expected to taper by early evening, but near IFR cigs likely persist tonight. More widespread improvement to MVFR by mid Sunday AM. Possible return to VFR by afternoon, though cigs may remain MVFR thru the day.

Winds NE around 10 to 15 kt through today, diminishing a few kts this evening. ENE on Sunday with speeds at or under 10 kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for changing flight categories through TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday PM - Monday: Slight chance of showers, mainly from NYC terminals and west, with MVFR possible at times.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers late day into the night, with a chance of MVFR to IFR.

Wednesday - Thursday: Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with a period of sub-VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA remains up for the ocean waters tonight with NE flow at 15 to 20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt. Seas will build to around 5 ft.
The flow relaxes some the second half of the night. It is possible that 5 ft seas linger a bit longer into Sunday morning.
Confidence remains low. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions expected through Monday.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across all waters Monday night through at least Thursday morning. SW winds pick up in the afternoon ahead of a cold front, with gusts possibly up to 25 kt on the ocean - lasting into the evening. Ocean seas could reach 5 ft Thursday night into Friday.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.

Next chance for impacts would be Thursday into Thursday night with scattered thunderstorms. The airmass is moist, but the anticipated speed of the cells would mitigate potential rain amounts. With that said, there's still the potential of at least minor urban/poor drainage flooding.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A moderate risk of rip current development remains for the rest of today into this evening.

The moderate risk continues into Sunday with an E-SE wave component around 4 ft at 6s.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.