Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oyster Bay, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Summerlike temperatures through Wednesday

2) A cold front moves across Wednesday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Brief gusty winds and locally heavy rain possible.

3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend.

4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
No major changes to the hot fcst thru Wed. Kept with the previous trend of going a bit blw the NBM which is believed to be too warm. Went with a 50/50 blend of the MAV and NBM to accomplish this.

The shallow backdoor cold front looks to have little impact on temps today aside from ern areas and LI, where onshore flow may limit highs a bit. Otherwise the hot airmass continues to build in. Depending on where the numbers end up today, there is a chance some of the usually warmer spots may need a heat advy based on the two-day 95 degree criteria. In addition, temps could spike on Wed ahead of the front. Guidance often has a tough time getting hot enough invof a front, especially a few days out. Despite that bias, the MAV/NBM blend still has a high of 94 for KNYC on Wed.


KEY MESSAGE 2
It looks increasingly likely that a cold fropa will occur during the day on Wed. The actual timing will be critical. Low moisture but sufficient instability and no CIN should allow for tstms to develop invof the front assuming a daytime passage. The best upr support is to the north, but there will be falling heights nonetheless.

Primary severe threat based on the setup appears to be downburst winds with relatively high based storms attm. DCAPE in the NAM supports this with peak values around 1500J/kg modeled. There could be some hail as well with the dry air entrainment.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend.

Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday.

Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid to upper 60s and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday.

Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west.

KEY MESSAGE 4
Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A warm front lifts north of the region today. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country. T

VFR through the TAF period.

Southerly winds this afternoon increase to around 10kt with a some locations G15-18kt. Winds diminish tonight to under 10 kt from the S/SW. Winds are expected to increase once again on Tuesday with gusts once again to near 20kt. Gusts may be more occasional at times.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt into eve. Isolated thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible.

Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening.
S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. NW windshift in the evening.

Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas will remain blw SCA lvls today. Winds will increase tngt, with SCA cond possible on Tue, especially on the ocean. The threat for SCA winds and seas continues on Wed as a cold front passes, then winds and seas are modeled to remain blw advy lvls Thu and Fri.

There could be some strong tstms invof the cold front on Wed.

Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 17: KEWR: 68/2015 KBDR: 60/2025 KNYC: 70/1906 KLGA: 68/1965 KJFK: 63/1965 KISP: 62/2015

May 18: KEWR: 74/2017 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 75/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 65/2017 KISP: 63/1977

May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017

May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007- 009>011.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004- 006-103>108.
MARINE...None.