Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oyster Bay, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:29PM Saturday November 28, 2020 12:25 PM EST (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 4:41PMMoonset 6:04AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1016 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Slight chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming se 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 1016 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains in control through Sunday. Developing low pressure across the southeast Sunday night will deepen on Monday as it tracks into the northeast. The low will meander near the great lakes region Monday night into Tuesday, before tracking into southeast canada on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oyster Bay, NY
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location: 40.88, -73.53     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 281521 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1021 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold frontal passage today will allow for fair weather into Sunday. Deepening low pressure will bring stormy weather for Monday into Tuesday. High pressure is then expected for the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. This update makes minor changes to account for the upstream rain showers potentially maintaining their intensity and pushing through parts of the area into the early afternoon. Temperatures and dew points were also edited to reflect current observations and trends.

A weak cold front will pass through during the day today potentially allowing for a few weak passing showers through the early afternoon, mainly for the Lower Hudson Valley and CT.

High pressure builds south of the area then over the Atlantic on Sun, so aside from a few passing showers this afternoon, dry weather is expected through Sunday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The main focus is on the storm Mon and Mon ngt, and the fcst has been ramped up particularly wrt the wind threat.

The modeling continues to be in good agreement with the sys, tracking a deepening low west of the cwa while high pres ridges swd from the N Atlc.

There remains some uncertainty with the amount of rain. This will depend on the setup and orientation of the subtropical moisture feed. There will likely be at least an initial hvy rain burst on Mon, but whether there is more of a prolonged hvy rain threat is still in question. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF take this secondary rain threat associated with the best moisture convergence and transport east of the area. Too close to be ruled out this far out however. The current fcst is 1-2 inches of rain generally across the area.

The sys does look poised to produce strong winds. A wind advy or high wind warning will be needed at some point for portions of the area. The ern half of the cwa is most at risk. The NAM is now over 80kt at H85. Right now expect the threat to be in the range of 50-70 mph gusts, strongest ern areas. The HWO and official fcst have been updated accordingly. The timing for the strongest winds is Mon aftn and eve, although this is subject to change this far out.

A period of beach erosion is expected along the ocean. Some coastal flooding will be possible, but the exact magnitude is very uncertain attm. The current modeling suggests only minor right now, as the peak winds are lining up with the lower of two astronomical high tide cycles.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The occluded low will weaken and drift nwd thru Quebec Tue and Wed. The latest model consensus is dry, and the NBM was followed as a result. There will be a cold pool aloft on Wed so temps should hit convective. Sometimes these strong occluded storms entrain more moisture than what is modeled this far out, so this is something to keep an eye on for Tue and Wed.

A broad area of high pres is modeled for the rest of the week so fair wx has been fcst attm.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. VFR with high pressure in control as cloud cover decreases this afternoon. Light NW to WNW wind should increase this afternoon to about 10-15G20kt this afternoon, then slowly diminish early this evening, and become light and back W overnight.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled AMD are expected through TAF period.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

***HIGH IMPACT EVENT LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING***

Sunday and Sunday night. VFR. Monday. IFR in rain, possibly heavy at times. SE-S winds 20-30kt G35-50kt by afternoon/evening, with LLWS up to 50-65kt, and chance thunder. Worst cond near the coast. Speeds a few kt lower at KSWF. Tuesday. MVFR cond with sct showers. S-SW winds G15-20kt inland and 20-25kt NYC metros/coast. Wednesday. VFR. SW winds G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain blw sca lvls this weekend. Winds will increase to gale and may reach storm force Mon and Mon ngt. Seas will builds to over 10 ft on the ocean. Winds then decrease all waters on Tue, but seas will remain high on the ocean. Winds will be blw sca on all waters Wed, but seas will still be a sca lvls on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY. Locally hvy rain is expected Mon into Mon eve. A general 1-2 inches is fcst. This would have the potential to produce some minor flooding where the heaviest rain occurs. If the storm sys tracks further west, there could be heavier rainfall amounts and a more significant flood threat.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Water levels on Mon will respond quickly to strong onshore flow and freshwater input due to heavy rain. Fortunately, the highest surge will likely occur either mid cycle or during the lower of the two daily high tides, so only minor impacts expected with the high tides Mon evening along south facing coastlines of NY Harbor, the south shore of western Long Island, and western Long Island Sound. Minor to locally moderate beach erosion also appears likely along the oceanfront.

Continued onshore flow into Tuesday could present a more widespread minor flood threat with the Tuesday morning high tide cycle due to tidal piling. Minor beach erosion/overwash still possible Tue morning.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMC NEAR TERM . JMC SHORT TERM . JMC LONG TERM . JMC AVIATION . DBR MARINE . JMC HYDROLOGY . JMC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi41 min W 7.8 G 14 58°F 40°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi56 min 53°F 1015.3 hPa
44069 27 mi56 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 50°F 44°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi56 min 53°F 53°F1013.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi56 min 54°F 53°F1014.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi56 min 54°F 1014.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi36 min W 7.8 G 9.7 55°F2 ft1014.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi56 min 54°F 53°F1014.2 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi68 min WNW 7 G 11
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi56 min 53°F 1015.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi56 min 53°F 52°F1014.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi36 min W 9.7 G 14 57°F2 ft1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi33 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F36°F47%1014.4 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi30 minWNW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F35°F51%1014 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi35 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F41°F55%1014.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi35 minWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F35°F44%1014.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi30 minWSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F37°F49%1013.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi35 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F35°F49%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W4SW6SW8SW4CalmNW3CalmNW4NW3CalmNW3NW3CalmN5CalmW4NW3W3CalmCalmSW5W6W9
1 day agoSW8SW9SW10--W3SW3W4W3CalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W7
2 days agoSW10SW11SW7SW5SW4CalmSW5SW3CalmCalmSE3E3SE3E4SW5S9S6S7SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
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Oyster Bay Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:45 AM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:04 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:47 AM EST     7.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:17 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:12 PM EST     6.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.83.41.90.90.61.42.84.66.37.57.87.15.84.12.40.90.10.41.53.14.86.26.96.7

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:57 AM EST     0.90 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:04 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:15 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:28 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:21 PM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:40 PM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.20.60.90.60.20-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.10.50.90.90.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.