Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oyster Bay, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:03PM Friday August 7, 2020 7:33 PM EDT (23:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 9:41AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 537 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 537 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A stationary front remains just south of the area through early Saturday. High pressure will then build into the area for Sunday and Monday. A cold front approaches Tuesday, slowly tracking across the region through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oyster Bay, NY
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location: 40.88, -73.53     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 072143 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 543 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A stationary front remains just south of the area through early Saturday. High pressure builds into the area for Sunday, and remains into Monday. The high moves into the western Atlantic late Monday and Tuesday as a cold front approaches. The front slowly tracks across the region through Thursday, then stalls to the south Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Stationary front will remain south of the area, with a few very weak disturbances riding along the boundary. Aloft, a deamplifying trough will move through. These will be the focus for some showers. This area was moving out from eastern Pennsylvania into western New Jersey at 21Z with showers and thunderstorms. However, as previously mentioned, the trough aloft is deamplifying, and models do show some weakening as it moves through, so think the best chance for showers will be for western sections, where there exists a chance for showers, and a passing thunderstorm, as there is at least some CAPE in the 300 to 900 J/kg range, providing enough instability for a thunderstorm somewhere. However, nothing severe is expected.

These showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken this evening as the area moves into a less unstable environment and with less CAPE, and by 04Z expected only showers to remain. With a continued onshore flow, more stable conditions are in store for Long Island, so not expecting any of these showers to progress too far east, so capped POP for Long Island and southeast Connecticut to slight chance.

As far as temperatures, mostly cloudy skies and humid conditions will keep temperatures from dropping too much. Expect lows to range from the middle 60s to around 70.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches through this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The stationary front will very slowly sink south through the period. With much of the forcing for any showers and thunderstorms to remain south of the area, not much in the way of showers and thunderstorms are expected. With slightly warmer conditions inland, instability will be higher, so slightly higher POPs (chance) are warranted across northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley. Otherwise, just a slight chance is expected. Many of the mesoscale models support this thinking.

Temperatures will continue to run at or just below normal on Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s thanks to continued light northeasterly flow. Lows at night will continue to be warm ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Upper ridging will be gradually building into the northeast Sunday as a weak shortwave moves into the ridge during the afternoon, passing mainly to the north. There will be increasing CAPE and instability during the day and isolated convection will be possible along sea breeze boundaries with increased convergence. The GFS and ECMWF do indicate some light precipitation Sunday afternoon. At this time have not included slight chance probabilities, however did increase POPs with sea breeze development.

The building ridge will usher in increasing heat and humidity into mid week. There is increasing consensus and confidence that portions of the region will reach mid 90s heat indices Monday through Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, as temperatures will range 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The ridge will keep another shortwave moving to the north Monday. The only real change in the long term forecast is the slower trend in the longwave closed low moving across southern Canada and into the northern tier of the plains and upper midwest into the midweek period. This will delay the approach of a weak cold front, with Tuesday remaining mostly dry. There may be a few afternoon thunderstorms along the periphery of the ridge, and have slight chances into the Lower Hudson Valley.

As the mid and upper flow becomes more parallel to the cold front, the front will slow its eastward progression, and convection will once again be mainly to the west and north Wednesday. The front is expected to move through Wednesday into Thursday and then stall south of the region Friday.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A stationary front will sit near the DelMarVa the next 24-36 hours, with some weak disturbances tracking along it.

MVFR/VFR cigs this afternoon into evening push (2.5-3.5 kft) Scattered to numerous shra/tsra activity is occurring across E PA this aft/eve, with a low prob of sparse activity working into NYC/NJ terminals for evening push. MVFR/IFR conditions likely in any shower activity. Potential for more widespread MVFR cigs to develop after midnight and linger into Sat morning push.

Light E/SE winds today, generally less than 10kt, into early evening push, becoming light and variable tonight into Sat morning. Light SE flow developing Sat afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Saturday Afternoon. Possible isolated aft shra/tsra for NYC/NJ and western terminals. MVFR possible early. Saturday Night-Monday. Mainly VFR. Low prob of late night/early morning MVFR conds. Tuesday and Wednesday. Low prob of aft/eve rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels tonight through Wednesday as lack of any pressure gradient keeps winds on the light side.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JP/MET NEAR TERM . JP/MET SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . NV MARINE . JP/MET HYDROLOGY . JP/MET


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 6 mi63 min ENE 9.7 G 12 74°F 67°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi33 min ENE 12 G 16 73°F 71°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi45 min E 2.9 G 7 75°F
44069 27 mi33 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 69°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi45 min ESE 5.1 G 7 74°F 75°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi45 min 77°F 77°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi45 min ENE 8 G 8.9 76°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi23 min ENE 9.7 G 14 71°F1019 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi45 min 75°F 79°F
MHRN6 37 mi45 min SSE 5.1 G 6
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi45 min E 5.1 G 8 73°F 76°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi45 min SSE 5.1 G 9.9 75°F 76°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi23 min ENE 12 G 14 72°F1019 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi40 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F64°F64%1019.6 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi37 minESE 510.00 miA Few Clouds74°F60°F62%1019.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi42 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%1019.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi42 minNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F64°F66%1019.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi37 minE 410.00 miOvercast75°F66°F76%1019.5 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi42 minNE 510.00 mi74°F66°F76%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S4CalmNE3CalmN3E4CalmNE3NE4CalmN4N6E5E5NE8NE96E7SE8SE7SE6SE7E4
1 day agoSW8SW6S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmN4NE4N6CalmE4E8SE8SW4CalmS9S9S5
2 days agoSW9SW9SW5S6SW8SW10SW5S6S3SW5S4SW3SW3S3S6S11SW11SW11SW15S14SW13SW13SW10SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:59 AM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:08 AM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:19 PM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:33 PM EDT     0.94 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.200.20.60.90.70.2-0-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-00.10.40.80.90.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.