Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oyster Bay, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:28PM Saturday December 14, 2019 6:13 PM EST (23:13 UTC) Moonrise 7:59PMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 356 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance of light rain early this evening.
Sun..W winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow, sleet and freezing rain in the evening. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 356 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in tonight behind a storm departing to the north, and lasts over the region through Sunday night. A low pressure system will then impact the waters Monday through Tuesday. High pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday, but with a cold front moving through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oyster Bay, NY
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location: 40.88, -73.53     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 142051 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 351 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in tonight behind a storm departing to the north, and lasts over the region through Sunday night. A low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Tuesday, then departs to the northeast Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday and remains over the area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Low pressure continues to shift north of the forecast area. Drier air behind an associated frontal boundary will filter in from the west tonight, but there will still be perhaps enough moisture and lift this evening for low chances of light rainfall. There will probably be some areas of dense fog lingering before winds begin to pick up behind the front. Will allow the current SPS to handle the situation. The overnight hours will be dry and breezy with gusty west winds.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure slowly builds into the region Sunday. Continued breezy with high temperatures a couple of degrees above normal courtesy of a downsloping wind flow. As for PCPN, will go with a dry forecast, but might eventually need to add in sprinkles north and west of the city as shortwave lift interacts with some moisture arriving from the Great Lakes.

The ridge of high pressure reaches us late at night Sunday with winds becoming lighter. Dry weather continues through the period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.

. Storm System Monday - Tuesday Night .

A low pressure system will be the focus of this time period. Central low develops Mississippi River Valley towards Tennessee Monday and will be deepening with an associated warm front moving into the local region.

Monday afternoon into Monday evening, the region receives warm air advection aloft, isentropic lift, widespread stratiform precipitation. 850mb freezing line moves north of Long Island and perhaps some of the interior Monday evening and eventually north of the entire region by Tuesday morning. Onset of precip and first few hours, p-type likely snow, then a gradual changeover to wintry mix and then to rain slowly from south to north.

For Tuesday, the central low tracks directly across the local region. Precipitation continues through the day and tapers off behind the low late Tuesday afternoon into the start of Tuesday evening. For p-type, expecting all rain for coastal areas an a wintry mix for the interior. Precipitation tapers off late.

The low will be well east of the area, to North Atlantic waters offshore of Cape Cod by Tuesday night. Drying conditions are expected Tuesday night as the low deepens and accelerates northeast to eventually southeast of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday.

For specifics, CONSRaw heavily utilized with temperatures, dewpoints. More of an overall consensus weight for Monday. Temperatures will easily get to their wet bulb values once steady precip moves in Monday. Lowered ambient temperatures 1-2 degrees late Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Most snow accumulations will be Monday afternoon through Monday night, particularly between around 3pm and around 7pm for much of the coast. NYC and Long Island above freezing thereafter with slowly rising temperatures thereafter into early Tuesday. Mostly snow for interior from around 3pm until around midnight. Thereafter it is wintry mix interior to rain at coast. Overall, forecast has a 1-3 inch snow event, with around a tenth of an inch of ice across interior.

For the rest of the long term, high pressure starts to build back into the region on Wednesday and will remain over the area through the end of the week. Expect dry conditions with temperatures below normal. Low pressure may impact the area over the weekend.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low pressure north of the area terminals will continue to lift away from the region tonight and Sunday. A trailing cold front will move across the area this evening.

Main concern over the next few hours will be the low visibilities in fog and increasing winds. visibilities range from about 1 mile to a quarter mile or less in fog. Improvement is expected around 00z as the winds increase and become more southwesterly.

Winds across the area terminals are quite variable as low pressure remains near the region. Across the coastal terminals, winds have become southerly around 10-15 kt. Across the interior, winds will be light and variable for another few hours. Winds then significantly increase this evening behind the cold front with W-SW winds 15-20 G25-35kt.

Widespread IFR/LIFR this evening will gradually improve to MVFR them VFR late this evening following the cold frontal passage. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday afternoon. VFR. West winds around 20kt,G25-35kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR. W wind gusts diminish to 20 kt Sunday night. Monday night-Tuesday. MVFR to IFR possible. Chance of snow for inland terminals changing to a wintry mix and then to rain. Chance of mainly rain for coastal terminals, with a period of snow or a wintry mix at the start early Monday night. Wednesday. VFR with NW gusts 25-30kt. Thursday. Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Dense fog advisory continues through 6PM this evening on all waters. Winds pick up from the SW, then W tonight with a Gale Warning remaining posted on all waters. Gales should last through Sunday, and have extended the warning for the ocean, and eastern LI Sound/Bays into a portion of the evening. Winds then subside overnight Sunday with sub-advisory conds on all waters except on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet.

Conditions on the waters are below SCA Monday through very early Tuesday. Late Tuesday morning through Tuesday night, SCA conditions will become more probable across the ocean while non-ocean waters remain below SCA. SCA conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as winds and seas remain elevated.

HYDROLOGY. Any additional rain accumulation into this evening will be very light. The only remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT where levels continue to gradually rise into this evening due to a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

Another significant rainfall event is possible Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.25 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ335-338-345. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ330-340-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JC/JM NEAR TERM . JC SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . BC/JM AVIATION . BC MARINE . JC/JM HYDROLOGY . JC/JM EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 6 mi54 min SSW 18 G 23 52°F 2 ft52°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi59 min SSW 14 G 19 50°F 32°F50°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi56 min W 12 G 15 53°F 44°F989.3 hPa
44069 27 mi74 min SSW 16 G 19 49°F 40°F49°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi68 min S 12 G 15 51°F 44°F987.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi56 min 52°F 46°F989.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi56 min WSW 18 G 24 55°F 988.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi44 min SW 16 G 19 51°F 989.9 hPa51°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi56 min 54°F 45°F989.2 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi56 min SW 16 G 19
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi56 min WSW 18 G 20 52°F 45°F989.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi56 min SSW 13 G 14 50°F 43°F988.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi84 min SW 25 G 29 53°F 51°F12 ft989.7 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi81 minSSW 180.25 miFog/Mist and Breezy52°F51°F97%989.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi78 minS 90.15 miLight Rain Fog52°F52°F100%988 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi83 minSSW 170.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F51°F100%989.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi83 minWSW 123.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist55°F53°F93%988.5 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi78 minS 150.13 miFog53°F53°F100%989.3 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi83 minWSW 8 G 2310.00 miOvercast54°F53°F97%988.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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SE10S17S13S11S13S11SW5S7S5S5S9S13S16
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1 day agoE3CalmE3NE4NE3CalmNE6NE5NE6NE5NE4NE4E5CalmE3SE4SE7E6E6NE6N6NE6E7NE5
2 days agoW8W11W12
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NW9NW8NW8NW8N8NE9NW6NE6N3CalmS5S6SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:02 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:37 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM EST     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:25 PM EST     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:57 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:47 PM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.20.10.30.60.90.90.4-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.400.20.40.810.60.1-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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