Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Halesite, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Areas of fog and black ice this morning, and possibly again tonight.

2) Snow showers expected on Sunday.

3) Multiple waves of low pressure will impact the area Tuesday through Friday of next week. Little to no impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Weak return flow, as well as residual moisture from the melting snowpack, has produced areas fog with some areas of black ice this morning. A Special Weather Statement issued earlier this morning now includes all zones and lasts through 9am this morning.

As for tonight/early Sunday morning, fog development would be more likely to occur during the evening hours before a northerly flow strengthens overnight. Because of this timing, freezing fog would appear to only be possible well inland tonight due to anticipated temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2
No advisories are currently anticipated for snow or wind chills.

A cold front moves through the area tonight, but with little moisture to accompany it. Deeper moisture follows on Sunday along with PVA to bring snow/snow showers across the area. NBM PoPs have trended upward from the previous runs and qpf fields from several models imply the likelihood of precipitation occurring, so have gone above NBM PoPs for Sunday. Precip should be exiting out of the eastern zones by the end of the day. Thermal profiles support snow, although boundary layer profiles are close to allowing some rain to potentially mix in for southern zones. Will keep the forecast as all snow. Above-freezing temps through the event and daytime timing will mitigate snow accumulations. Anticipating 1-2 inches of snow across CT and much of Lower Hudson Valley, with under an inch elsewhere.
Minor impacts for the most part, but brief moderate/heavier snowfall may overcome any melting on the roadways for a short time. Special Weather Statements should be able to handle impact messaging as needed.

Colder air filters in from the north during Sunday night with minimum wind chills in the single digits. Highs for Monday only in the 20s for most spots.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Upper air pattern is forecast to change this period as a trough becomes established across the western half of the country by the end of the period, with broad upper level ridging across the east.
This will support a period of mild weather with a storm track generally to the north and west of the forecast area. This supports mainly rain through the week. But with cold air in place Tuesday morning, precipitation ahead of a warm front may initially start off as snow before going over to rain. Transition likely occurs before a steadier precipitation develops. Expect little or no snowfall accumulation at the coast with perhaps and inch or two across the interior. Low pressure passes to the northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday with conditions briefly drying out Wednesday. Another frontal wave approaches from the Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Thursday bringing chances of rain into the area.

Temperatures trending warmer than normal starting on Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will gradually slide offshore today. A cold front will move across the region tonight.

Areas of fog have developed this morning, producing IFR/LIFR conditions for many terminals. Most of the fog have been at the terminals in NYC and points west. Thinking that any fog will dissipate and conditions improve back to VFR between 14z and 15z. Another round of fog is expected this evening into the overnight, however confidence right now is too low to include in the forecast.

Winds will be light (less than 10kt) for much of the TAF period. Direction for much of the day today will be from the S or SW, then winds become more N after midnight as a cold front moves across the region. There may be a short window of gusty winds at KSWF today. Will continue to carry a TEMPO to address the potential gusty winds.

For the 30 hour TAF sites, some light snow is expected to move across the terminals on Sunday. expect MVFR cigs with IFR vsbys in any snow Sunday morning into the afternoon.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible this morning for improving conditions as fog dissipates.

Low confidence of fog development this evening and overnight.

Timing of snow Sunday morning may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys will be possible in light snow.
N/NW winds G15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening south to north.

Wednesday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain, mainly in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-advisory conditions expected for the most part today through Tuesday. The exception being Sunday night on the ocean when gusts around 25kt will be possible as the pressure gradient tightens with northerly gusts.

There will then be a chance of marginal SCA conditions on the ocean waters next week as multiple waves of low pressure pass to the NW with warm frontal passages. The first chance will be Tuesday night into Wednesday in the warm sector as SW winds strengthen.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.