Thursday, September24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mill Neck, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday September 24, 2020 9:53 AM EDT (13:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 545 Am Edt Thu Sep 24 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 545 Am Edt Thu Sep 24 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will remain off the mid-atlantic coast through Friday. Low pressure will pass to the south on Saturday. A cold frontal passage will then occur early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mill Neck, NY
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location: 40.89, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 241142 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 742 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain off the mid-Atlantic coast through Friday. A disturbance will pass to the south on Saturday. A cold frontal passage will then occur early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Forecast is on track with only minor changes made to reflect current conditions. Cirrus continues to move in from the west with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Surface high pressure will be off the mid-Atlantic coast today, meanwhile, there will be zonal flow aloft. Two shortwaves approach, one from the northern stream and one from the southern stream. However, they will remain to the west of the area today.

High clouds well out ahead of the remnants of Beta will continue to make their way into the area today. This may keep temperatures a degree or cooler than yesterday. Expect highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches today due to a lingering E-SE swell and onshore winds this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. The high will remain offshore and then build back into the area somewhat on Friday. The upper level shortwaves continue to approach the area tonight into Friday, but northern stream one will weaken, while the southern stream will remain to our southwest. So, dry conditions are expected through this time frame.

As for temperatures, the presence of clouds will prevent temperatures from dropping too much tonight, though with less in the way of coverage for the interior, these areas do have the potential to be colder than is currently forecast. The rest of the forecast area will be a few degrees above normal. Lows will range from the 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Friday will be similar to Thursday.

Thursday and Thursday night a northern stream shortwave begins to phase with a southern stream shortwave that will be moving into the mid Atlantic region. Both of the waves are very weak, broad, and low amplitude. And at the lower levels this waves nearly washout as they move into surface ridging. In addition, there is little moisture, so expect dry conditions, with mainly high cloudiness.

There is a low to moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Friday due to a lingering E-SE swell.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A weak area or surface trough will develop over the mid-Atlantic late Friday night as the southern stream shortwave approaches the mid-Atlantic coast. Both these features are expected to pass south of the region Saturday. However, the NAM and the Canadian do bring in some light showers. This may be overdone, especially with the high building back into the area, however, a passing shower cannot be ruled out for Saturday and the first part of Saturday night. Dry conditions then expected for the remainder of the weekend.

Models seem to be hinting at some increased low level moisture late Friday night into early Saturday morning across Connecticut and Long Island, so added some patch fog for these areas.

An H5 trof drops down into the Midwest on Mon. This opens the area up to strong sw flow aloft. There could be a few shwrs in this flow Sun ngt into Mon, but the best chance for organized activity looks to be closer to the cold front. That timing is late Mon and Mon ngt. Pops capped at 30 due to concerns over timing this far out.

Depending on how the upr lvl trof sets up, there could be some instability related shwrs Tue into Wed. Another chance of shwrs then follows for mid week with another cold frontal passage.

The NBM with local adjustments was used for temps in the extended. A persistent sly llvl flow will keep readings abv normal for most of the period. The second cold frontal passage during the middle of next week will likely produce a cool down to temps aob climo.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Friday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure over the Mid Atlantic passes to the south today.

VFR.

Light W-NW winds early will veer to the SW with coastal seabreezes developing from late morning into the afternoon. KEWR, KTEB, and KHPN seabreezes will be later in the day around 21Z to 22Z.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Wind shift to the SW and seabreeze timing may vary by 1 to 2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday. VFR. Saturday. Chance of MVFR conds with any showers. Sunday. MVFR conds possible AM. Monday. Chance of MVFR conds with any showers or isolated tstms. S-SW winds G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Light winds through the weekend will keep seas below 5 ft through the weekend.

SCA likely for Mon. The protected waters look to remain blw sca lvls thru Mon. There could be a period where the ocean goes blw SCA lvls on Tue, then S winds kick in again on Wed.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through next Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . JP NEAR TERM . JP SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . JMC/JP AVIATION . DW MARINE . JMC/JP HYDROLOGY . JP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 5 mi68 min W 3.9 G 7.8 65°F 58°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 9 mi53 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 61°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi53 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 1016.4 hPa (+1.8)
44069 28 mi53 min W 3.9 G 3.9 64°F 59°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi53 min 64°F 68°F1016 hPa (+1.8)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi53 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 65°F 65°F1014.9 hPa (+1.5)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi53 min W 5.1 G 7 65°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.7)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi53 min 65°F 68°F1015.8 hPa (+1.5)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi33 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 68°F1015.5 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi53 min SW 1.9 G 2.9
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi53 min W 5.1 G 5.1 63°F 1016.4 hPa (+1.6)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi53 min Calm G 0 66°F 65°F1016 hPa (+1.5)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi33 min W 3.9 G 3.9 66°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair65°F55°F73%1015.6 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi57 minNW 310.00 miFair63°F55°F78%1015.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi62 minN 010.00 miOvercast70°F53°F55%1015.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi62 minN 010.00 miOvercast67°F57°F71%1015.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi62 minWNW 310.00 miFair67°F54°F63%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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W10NW5NW6CalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN11N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Bayville Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT     6.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:09 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:16 PM EDT     7.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.92.33.95.56.676.55.442.61.511.32.445.77.17.87.66.65.23.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:11 AM EDT     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:20 PM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.20-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.10.50.90.80.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.2-00.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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