Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mill Neck, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:36PM Friday February 21, 2020 8:06 PM EST (01:06 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 4:40PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 532 Pm Est Fri Feb 21 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain after midnight.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain in the morning, then light rain likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
ANZ300 532 Pm Est Fri Feb 21 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure slowly builds to the south through the weekend. The high will slide offshore over the atlantic on Monday. Weak low pressure approaches from the south and west Monday night and moves near the region on Tuesday. A stronger low pressure approaches on Wednesday and moves across the area Wednesday night and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mill Neck, NY
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location: 40.89, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 212338 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 638 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure slowly builds to the south through the weekend. The high will slide offshore over the Atlantic on Sunday and Monday. Weak low pressure approaches from the south and west Monday night and moves near the region on Tuesday. A stronger low pressure approaches on Wednesday and moves across the area Wednesday night and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Mainly updated dew points as they have been running lower than forecast this evening. Many locations have seen dew points range between 0 and 5 below. This is indicative of how dry the airmass is over the region. The dew points should slowly rise this evening into the single digits.

Clear skies are forecast as high pressure builds from the southwest, and ridging builds aloft.

The forecast challenge for tonight will be minimum temperature for areas prone to radiational cooling. Weak shortwave passes well to the north late tonight, and a sfc trough passes. Winds will back to the west, and a slight increase in the pressure gradient is expected along with an increase in winds aloft. This will hinder good radiational cooling later tonight (after midnight). However, if winds decouple sufficiently this evening, temps could fall quickly outside of the urban areas. In general, went slightly above MOS for those locations prone to radiational cooling based on the above thinking, but much colder than blended databases. Lows will range from the mid 20s in and around NYC metro, to the lower teens in the normally colder locations. A few single digits cannot be ruled out, if winds lighten more than forecast, and for a longer duration than forecast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. Clear skies are expected this weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds. Temperatures during the day may very well over perform (especially Sunday) in westerly downslope flow and gradual WAA. Temps will rise through the 40s Saturday, and into the 50s Sunday under abundant sunshine. Leaned warmer than MOS.

Temperatures at night show fall into the 20s, except lower 30s around NYC metro.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The quiet pattern the Tri-State area will observe for this weekend will end next week as a more active weather pattern takes shape.

Monday will continue tranquil with increasing clouds late in the day. A split jet stream flow pattern will be in place with a northern stream shortwave passing across SE Canada and a southern stream shortwave moving across the central States. Above normal temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s are anticipated for highs on Monday.

A noticeable trend in the models over the last 24 hours is to dampen the southern stream wave out faster as it approaches the northeast. The surface low associated with the shortwave looks to weaken as it approaches Monday night. Lingering surface ridging over the New England on Tuesday also creates a challenge for precipitation development. The combination of the surface ridging and weakening shortwave leads to lower probabilities for precipitation. Temperature profiles are supportive of plain rain where precip does occur and any rain will be on the light side. The highest chance for light rain appears to be Tuesday with lower chances Tuesday night as heights rise aloft and shortwave energy weakens. Cannot completely remove the mention of light rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as lingering overrunning may remain in place.

A ridge amplifies along the Western North America on Wednesday leading to a deepening downstream trough over the Central States. The models have continued to come into agreement that this next trough will deepen another surface low over the Middle Atlantic on Wednesday and then lift the low across the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. The persistent pattern this winter of inland tracking lows will continue with this system as the consensus of guidance indicates the parent low moves towards the eastern Great Lakes with a potential secondary developing over New England. Plain rain is the most likely precipitation type in this scenario late Wednesday through Wednesday night with mild air in place. Will have to watch if any wrap around precip can make it across the region as colder arrives when the low departs Thursday morning, but this looks like a very low probability at this time.

The upper trough becomes a closed low late Thursday into Friday as it tracks across New England. Conditions should dry out with temperatures falling below normal for the end of February.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure to the south and west will keep VFR conditions through the forecast period. Clear sky conditions are expected with unrestricted visibility through the TAF period.

Winds will generally be west direction during the TAF period. The wind speed will be around 5 kts or less tonight and increasing to around 10 kt on Saturday with gusts to around 20 kt developing late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. There is 1-2 hours of uncertainty with the exact start and end time of the gusts. Gusts subside Saturday evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday night through Monday. VFR. Monday night through Tuesday. Increasing chances of light rain, becoming likely Tuesday afternoon with MVFR or lower. Tuesday night. Chance of light rain with MVFR or lower. Wednesday. Increasing chances of rain, becoming likely in the afternoon and at night. E-SE gusts 15-20 kt at night, mainly along the coast.

MARINE. Winds will be rather tranquil to start the night, but should increase as the night progresses. Westerly flow increases further by Saturday morning, and will issue a SCA for the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet. Do expect seas to build to 5 ft for those eastern waters. Sub SCA conditions are expected elsewhere.

SCA winds and seas may extend into the evening Saturday night, but will not extend the hazard attm.

As high pressure passes south Sunday, winds back to the SW, and will remain sub SCA.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the waters Monday into Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place. An approaching low pressure system Tuesday night and Wednesday should help build seas to SCA levels on the ocean. Winds may also gust to around 20 kt on the waters on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350- 353.

SYNOPSIS . DS/PW NEAR TERM . DS/PW SHORT TERM . PW LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . JM MARINE . DS/PW HYDROLOGY . DS/PW EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 5 mi67 min W 9.7 G 12 35°F 8°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 9 mi37 min WSW 9.7 G 12 35°F 32°F10°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi49 min NW 8.9 G 12 35°F 40°F1030.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi49 min 35°F 41°F1029.9 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi49 min SW 4.1 G 6 32°F 39°F1028.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi49 min WSW 9.9 G 11 34°F 1029.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi49 min 33°F 41°F1030 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi27 min WSW 12 G 16 34°F 1030.2 hPa16°F
MHRN6 37 mi49 min SW 8 G 12
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi49 min W 12 G 14 34°F 40°F1030.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi49 min WSW 5.1 G 6 32°F 39°F1028.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi77 min 5.8 G 7.8 32°F 43°F2 ft1030.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi74 minSSW 510.00 miFair31°F10°F42%1030 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair28°F1°F32%1029.5 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi76 minW 1010.00 miFair35°F1°F23%1029.4 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi76 minWSW 810.00 miFair33°F9°F36%1030.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi76 minWSW 610.00 miFair34°F1°F25%1029.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N10
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4W76NW6NW5W3S5SW4
1 day agoNW7N6NW7CalmN6N7NW5NW8NW4N7NW5NW7N8NW8W6W6NW5W8NW7NW4NW6NW4N6NW9
2 days agoN4N4NW5NW4W4W5NW8NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:24 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:39 AM EST     0.92 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:07 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:04 PM EST     0.94 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:31 PM EST     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.10.30.80.90.60.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.20.10.60.90.70.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.