Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bogota, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:29PM Sunday December 8, 2019 7:34 AM EST (12:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:37PMMoonset 4:12AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 435 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain and snow in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 435 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure across the waters this morning will pass east by early this afternoon. A frontal system will then impact the area Monday through Tuesday night. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bogota , NJ
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location: 40.89, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 081229 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 729 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will pass east today. A warm front will approach late tonight into Monday, and lift through to the northeast Monday night. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and slowly passes east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week before another potential storm system arrives next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Looking at a mostly sunny day today, with slowly increasing high clouds as the high moves east. High temps should be a shade warmer than a MOS blend, with lower 40s metro/coast and upper 30s inland, about 5 deg below avg.

Mid level shortwave energy arrives beginning this evening, with chances for showers increasing from the south mainly after midnight. The 00Z NAM introduced showers this evening which looked too fast, so sided more with timing of other guidance with a start time past midnight. Early evening lows should be followed by steady or rising temps in deep layer WAA, with temps by daybreak ranging from the 30s well north/west, to the mid 40s NYC metro/most of Long Island, to the lower 50s ern Long Island. Precip arrives too late for any freezing rain issues in western Orange County where temps by daybreak may still be just below 32F.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Should see rainfall with the approaching frontal sys in two primary waves. The first will come with the warm frontal approach/passage today tonight, then should a break in precip as we get into the warm sector late Mon night and Tue AM before precip with and mostly behind the approaching cold front arrives Tue afternoon/night.

Model consensus is for axis of heavier precip with the warm front to be places farther east, more across Long Island and SE CT than areas to the west. Removed mention of thunder in most places as elevated instability should be minimal, though there does appear to be a window of opportunity for heavier showers and isolated thunder across eastern Long Island and coastal SE CT with warm fropa that may have to be watched for strong wind potential as well.

Temps in the warm sector will be on the mild side, with widespread 50s for highs on Mon, even lower 60s across ern Long Island per consensus MOS. Temps should not fall much Mon night, the should be even milder on Tue, with lower 60s metro/Long Island/SE CT, and 55-60 elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As another shortwave rotates around the back side of the upper trough in central Canada, there are indications that rain moves just east, with additional rain/precip shield tracking northeast on the back side of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday due to upper level support. Assuming that does indeed occur, colder air will move in behind the front which will result in a transition from rain to snow, mix in between. This could result in light snow accumulations later Tuesday night into Wednesday, NW to SE.

The upper trough weakens as it pivots east, and sfc high pressure builds in from the west late Wed, Wed night and Thursday. This will be the period of dry, but cold weather. Could be looking at the coldest air of the season, with temps struggling to reach or exceed freezing Thursday after a cold start to the day.

Shortwave ridging moves east Thu night, with sfc high moving north and east of the area. Easterly flow then sets up, with dry conditions likely lingering into Friday. Thereafter, model spread grows, with latest run of the operational GFS quicker with southern shortwave's movement east, which steers a sfc low out of the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE coast later Friday and Friday night, whereas Canadian and ECMWF are much slower with these features. Eventually, precip should move back in from the south by Saturday, but big difference in the upper level pattern are noted in the global models, with GFS phased with northern stream shortwave and southern stream. Canadian and ECMWF look much different (lack of phasing between the two), so plenty of time to iron out these details as the event draws near.

Temps fall below normal after cold fropa into Thursday night, then moderate late in the week.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR. High pressure will be over the terminals this morning, then passes offshore by afternoon.

Light and variable winds becomes S by late morning and increase to around 10 kt with gusts 15-18kt by early afternoon. Some spots may be less frequent. Gusts are lost by early this evening.

MVFR/IFR conditions develop late tonight into Monday morning as rain moves in ahead of an approaching warm front from the south.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday. MVFR/IFR in widespread rain. S G20-25kt, mainly at the coastal terminals during the afternoon/night, with a chance of LLWS. Slight chance thunder Monday afternoon/early evening at KISP and KGON. Tuesday. MVFR or lower in showers, possibly changing to snow overnight. SW gusts around 20 kt possible. Winds shift to the NW with a cold frontal passage in the late afternoon/evening. Wednesday. MVFR or lower in a chance of snow in the morning. W-NW G20-25kt possible. Thursday. VFR.

MARINE. High pressure over the waters this morning will give way to an approaching frontal system that will impact area through mid week. This will result in a strengthening southerly flow today through Monday night.

Marginal SCA conditions are forecast on the ocean waters tonight with a short period where the winds fall off during the early morning to daybreak timeframe. Winds then quickly ramp back up by late Monday morning with the potential for gale gusts on the ocean waters by afternoon and SCA conditions elsewhere. These conditions will persist into Monday night. Thus, a gale watch has been issued for the ocean waters Monday afternoon and night. A SCA will likely be issued for the remaining waters later today. However, there is some uncertainty with the magnitude of the winds during this time due to a strengthening inversion across the waters, which will limit the high wind potential. Seas on the ocean are forecast to build 7 to 12 ft.

Winds and seas will then diminish as a cold front approaches Tuesday, but remain above 5 ft on the ocean through at least Tuesday night. The front passes through the area Tuesday night with marginal SCA conditions possible Wednesday into Thursday morning in a W-NW flow.

There is the potential for another storm system to impact the waters at the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY. A significant long duration rainfall event is expected from late Sunday night into Wed. Event total QPF likely to range from 1.5-2.0 inches, locally 2-3 inches across eastern Long Island and southern CT. Heaviest rain should occur be Monday afternoon/eve. The long duration of the event should preclude widespread flooding. Nuisance/poor drainage flooding is the most likely outcome.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for ANZ350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.



SYNOPSIS . Goodman/PW NEAR TERM . Goodman SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . Goodman/PW AVIATION . DW MARINE . DW HYDROLOGY . Goodman/PW EQUIPMENT . //


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 13 mi47 min 30°F 46°F1034 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 14 mi47 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 28°F 43°F1034.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 15 mi50 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 29°F 32°F22°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 16 mi47 min N 4.1 G 5.1 29°F 1033.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi47 min 29°F 44°F1034.3 hPa
MHRN6 19 mi47 min N 4.1 G 5.1
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi50 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 30°F 16°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 29 mi47 min Calm G 0 31°F 40°F1034.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 40 mi25 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 35°F 49°F1034.5 hPa21°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 48 mi53 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 20°F 44°F1034.2 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ3 mi44 minNNE 310.00 miFair24°F16°F71%1033.8 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY8 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair28°F18°F66%1033.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi44 minE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy28°F16°F60%1034.2 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ14 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair20°F16°F85%1035 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ15 mi44 minNNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy23°F15°F72%1034.1 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY20 mi99 minN 010.00 miFair20°F12°F74%1033.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi44 minNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy24°F18°F77%1034.6 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ22 mi50 minWNW 410.00 miA Few Clouds16°F15°F100%1034.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTEB

Wind History from TEB (wind in knots)
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NW10NW106NW6N5NW5N5NW3N3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN3
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Tide / Current Tables for Hackensack, Hackensack River, New Jersey
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Hackensack
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:13 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     5.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:45 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:21 PM EST     4.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.30.61.73.14.24.95.14.94.23.22.31.40.70.41.12.43.64.34.64.53.92.92

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:31 AM EST     0.87 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:48 AM EST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:57 PM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:13 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:16 PM EST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.30.80.80.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.200.20.710.70.30-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.