Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester Hill, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

Ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from today onward.

The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (25 to 30 deg F above normal).

Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday.

In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular.

This afternoon and evening, a few clusters of thunderstorms could tap into 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to produce isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts. A lack of upper level forcing over Central PA means we will be dependent on surface-based organization associated with a potential MCS to produce a significant/sustained wind threat. The SPC issued an MCD around 2PM for a developing MCS over northeast Ohio. That complex will make its way into Central PA between 5 and 8PM, which is the most likely window for severe weather.

The severe weather outlook climbs to Slight Risk for Wednesday, fueled in part by increasing low level heat and humidity as dewpoints rise to near 60F. Cool temps aloft will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible.

Over the course of the workweek, the probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain with 1-2 inches expected by Friday, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A lull in shower/thunderstorm activity is expected across much of central PA overnight as the shortwave that's fueling thunderstorm activity this evening exits offshore, with VFR likely (70-80%) to prevail at most airfields. With that said, KBFD is moderately likely (50-70% chance) to see MVFR ceilings between 05Z-18Z as greater low-level moisture will be in place.
Moreover, scattered showers are expected to develop after 09Z, with a PROB30 for 4SM -TSRA included between 10Z-12Z based on the HRRR/RAP/NAM hinting at a weakening MCS passing overhead.

VFR is likely (80% chance) to prevail at all airfields by 18Z Thursday, with KBFD possibly (35-45% chance) returning to MVFR by 22Z. Otherwise, the primary concern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon/evening, primarily after 22Z. PROB30s for -TSRA were included for our western airfields (KBFD/KJST/KAOO) between 22Z-00Z Friday, and our central airfields (KUNV/KIPT) between 23Z-00Z Friday as these showers/thunderstorms progress eastward, with timing based on the HRRR.

Lastly, a period of LLWS is possible around the Central Mountains (KJST/KAOO/KUNV) between 09Z-15Z as a shortwave passes to the north across the Great Lakes, with the HRRR mean showing 850 mb winds approaching 40 kts during the diurnal minimum. The threat for LLWS is expected to diminish after 15Z as daytime heating mixes out the boundary layer.

Outlook...

Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west.

Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible.

CLIMATE
Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record.

Record High Daily Max / Daily Min...

For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023)
April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941)
April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002)

For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023)
April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023)
April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896)

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.