Chester Hill, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester Hill, PA

May 27, 2024 8:04 AM EDT (12:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM
Moonrise 11:51 PM   Moonset 8:04 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester Hill, PA
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Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 271150 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 750 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Severe weather is likely today, especially in the eastern half of the state as a low pressure area passes over the Upper Great Lakes and drags a cold front through by late evening. An upper level trough will build into the region for the remaining portion of the week. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The week will end dry and the dry forecast should last through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are into the western counties at 11Z. No severe worries yet, with mainly short cores.
But the wind could gust into the 30s/40s with them as they could tap the mid-level winds. This area of showers/storms should lift more to the north than the whole thing slide west to east. This rain could keep things less active/worrisome for the late morning and early afternoon. But, it could also add just that much more moisture to the llvls that would add some juice. Will tweak the timing for the rain/thunder this AM, but hold everything the same from ~10AM onward.

Prev...
Sky clearing out over much of the area, but sat images show patches of low clouds on some of the ridges. Fog is starting to develop in some spots, too (generally in the valleys). High/mid clouds will thicken up from west to east this morning as the fog/stratus burns away. Short wave over OH is driving nocturnal convection there and should push some TSRA into the west before 12Z. GFS is pretty fast with onset when compared to time-of- arrival tool. But, some SHRA (or even a TSRA) could develop ahead of the current crop. These could expand and make it a busy morning, but the severe threat appears to be a little later in the morning through the rest of the daylight hours when a second, stronger upper short wave moves toward PA. The cold front will lag the main show by a couple of hours, though.

SPC SLGT risk has been drawn back to the east a bit, likely with an eye toward early morning arrival of the first batch of TS/SHRA. The stable air at the sfc and relatively warm air aloft seen on BUFKIT soundings for this morning hint that TS this morning will not be rooted in the blyr. However, as this first volley of storms moves east, they may tap the sfc and grow stronger in the east - even before noon. The arrival of the better forcing coupled with the heating/destabilized llvls should put all the threats into play for much of the area. The organization/storm-mode is rather a toss-up at this point with many factors giving different hints. MLCAPE in the 1000-1200 range are not super. WBZ is low-ish, sitting at or just below 10kft in most places for some part of their respective unstable period. The progged hodographs for this aftn are not too compelling, either, but an SPC 5% tornado risk is a fairly rare thing for PA (a couple times/yr). Will play up the wording for tornadoes a little more than usual in the HWO and IDSS briefings.

As the afternoon progresses, the western tier of counties should get into more-stable air, and by 6-7PM, only the SErn quarter of the area will still be in their most-unstable period. Sct SHRA will occur along the real cfront in the evening, but they will be going over much more stable ground.

Heavy precip is more likely in the east as in the west, as PWATs reach near 2" in the Lower Susq by noon. But, the storms should be moving along at 30 MPH. The multiple shots at thunderstorms/heavy rain, and the wet ground from the rain we've had over the past 12 hrs will be the main reasons for FF threat.
The threat is not high enough at this point to post a FF Watch for any of our area. The east is where the PWATs do climb high and where the highest chcs of having 2-3 TSRA in 6-8 hrs lie.
So, that is where WPC has painted the SLGT risk of excessive rainfall.

Maxes today will hold in the 70s for almost everyone.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
As the cfront moves through in the evening, some drier air comes in. The wind stays up in the 5-10KT range, so fog may occur, but won't put it in the wx grids at this point. Low clouds under the digging longwave trough will come back into the NW quickly.
There could be a few SHRA there, but these should not push too far into the CWA, maybe just 3-4 counties overnight. Mins in the 50s and lower 60s are still well above normal.

Upper energy under the trough should spark some SHRA and a few TSRA on Tuesday. But, daytime temps stay near normal in the SE, and fall short of normal by 5-6F in the NW. Didn't want to take the 30 PoPs any farther SE than an AOO-SEG line for Tuesday, but isold convection is expected in the SE. In fact, at least one HRRR member pops things along the srn border (S of the lower clouds) and rides them into the Lower Susq. Thin CAPEs and short storms will keep the threat of SVR down to very low, if any risk at all. But, there is high 0-6km shear (40-50KT), generally before the SHRA/TSRA arrive.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Medium range guidance continues to point to a period of cool weather Tuesday through Thursday, as a deep upper level trough pivots southeastward from the Great Lakes. Cold temps aloft should support diurnally-driven showers/storms Tue and Wed, with the highest POPs across the elevated heat source of the Allegheny Plateau. The best overall chance of showers should come with the passage of a strong shortwave on Wednesday.

PoPs will fall to slight chance on Thursday as drier air moves in on the back side of the upper trough. This will begin a trend toward drier and warmer weather Friday into Saturday, as the upper level trough axis shifts east of PA and high pressure builds into the region. An approaching frontal system could bring our next round of showers/storms by next Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A line of SHRA across W PA this morning will continue traversing across the area. Brief restrictions are possible in the heaviest rainfall, but generally expect low-end VFR conds at this time. A period of VFR conds is expected to occur through 18-20Z before the next rounds of precipitation moves through the area.

After 20Z, probs of TSRA increase for the western airfields although there is some uncertainty on the exact extent of where TSRA will impact airfields. Guidance suggests MVFR restrictions at this time, but localized IFR restrictions are possible. There is low confidence on the direct impacts at airfields, so have left VCTS mentions at this time. Cigs will trend higher later in the day outside of thunderstorms as drier air works in from the west with a light breeze continuing into the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Brief restrictions are possible in scattered showers, but much of the time should be VFR.

Thu-Fri...Predominantly VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFIG CLEARFIELDLAWRENCE,PA 15 sm54 minN 044 smMostly Cloudy Mist 61°F59°F94%29.71
KUNV UNIVERSITY PARK,PA 20 sm71 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy63°F63°F100%29.76
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State College, PA,




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