Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Centerport, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Unseasonably warm conditions Wednesday will be followed by a cold front Wednesday evening bringing lower humidity and more seasonable conditions to end the week.

2) A strong cold front will bring showers Thursday night into Friday, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon.
Impacts, if any, are expected to be minimal.

3) The coldest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

A back door cold front nearby will lift north as a warm front tonight. A weak shortwave passes through overnight, but not anticipating any precipitation within our area. There could be a passing shower just to our northeast, closer to more organized forcing/convergence.

A westerly flow sets up on Wednesday with the warm front to the north and a trailing cold front approaching from northwest.
The westerly flow will aid in deeper mixing and much warmer temperatures. The MAV guidance continues to be the warmest and have blended these readings into the NBM to raise highs a few degrees along the coast and into the NYC metro. Forecast highs range from the upper 70s inland, lower 80s in the NYC metro and NE NJ, and upper 70s to around 80 for Long Island and coastal CT. Sea breezes should be held off except for the immediate coast due to the stronger westerly flow. The immediate coast will likely see cooler temperatures in the afternoon if the sea breezes develop. There may be some slight increase in cloud cover in the afternoon as the cold front approaches, but they should have minimal impact on temperatures. The expectation is for conditions to warm quickly in the morning/early afternoon.
Record highs are not forecast at this time, but some of the usual warmer locations could come close if the higher temperatures are observed. See climate section below for current records for October 14.

Probabilities for showers with the cold front are low and remain below 15 percent. However, an isolated, brief shower cannot be completely ruled out as the cold front passes across the area late in the afternoon/early evening.

Cooler, more seasonable temperatures, and lower humidity follows the cold front as high pressure builds in from the north on Thursday.


KEY MESSAGE 2

The next frontal system quickly approaches Thursday night. The associated warm front moves across the area late Thursday night/early Friday. Showers will accompany the warm front, which should last into a portion of Friday morning. The showers should end with the likelihood of a lull until the cold front crosses the area. Current consensus of the guidance has the cold front moving through the region in the late afternoon and early evening. The region should lie in the warm sector briefly, with a marginal increase in instability. A few thunderstorms could accompany the cold front passage. This setup resembles past situations where the strong cold front is accompanied by a narrow band of showers and a few thunderstorms. It is still a bit early to determine if there is any severe threat due to uncertainty in destabilization. The flow is fast moving and the showers in the morning should be mostly stratiform. The showers with the cold front could briefly be heavy, but with the fast flow, will not last over a given location for a long time.
Average rainfall amounts range from one quarter to one half inch. Gusty SW winds, 25-35 mph, are also forecast ahead of the cold front. Impacts on Friday, if any, are to expected to be minimal.


KEY MESSAGE 3

The coldest air mass since late April settles in to start the weekend.

Behind the fropa Friday night, a sprawling surface high builds east from the Plains, and the tightened pressure gradient between the departing area of low pressure to the north will lead to blustery NW winds and strong CAA. H850 temps plummet from the mid teens Friday afternoon to around -6C by Saturday.
Temperatures Saturday afternoon struggle to get into the lower 50s along the coast, and upper 40s inland, or around 10 to 15 degrees below climatology for mid October. The gusty NW winds 25-35 mph, will add to the chill, with apparent temperatures likely in the 30s through the day.

Actual air temps then fall into the 30s Saturday night, with lower 40s in the urban NYC metro. The coldest locales of interior S CT and the LoHud Valley likely fall to around or just below the freezing mark. Saturday will the be the cooler day of the weekend, with a gradual rebound in temperatures then expected through early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front lift north late today into tonight, with a cold front approaching Wednesday afternoon and crossing Wed evening.

MVFR cigs, possibly IFR, into this evening for KGON, potentially lingering at IFR or lower overnight in SW flow off LIS.
SCT-BKN MVFR cigs likely through the early afternoon for KBDR/ISP/KHPN/KSWF, before improving to VFR late aft/evening with loss of diurnal instability and SW winds increase aloft.
Elsewhere sct MVFR cigs likely thru the afternoon, improving to VFR this evening with loss of diurnal instability. VFR conditions on Wed, with sct 3000-3500ft aft cu.

S-SE winds around 10 kt this afternoon, then light/vrb S/SW overnight. SW winds increase to 10-15G20kt late Wed morning thru aft.

Patchy LLWS possible btwn 00z and 08z, as WSW flow increasing to 35-40 kt at 2kft.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

BKN MVFR cigs likely to remain to the north and east of NYC/NJ metro terminals thru the aft. VFR with S winds around 10 kt for eve push. VFR with SW winds around 10kt for AM push.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday aft: VFR. W/NW G20KT late morning thru afternoon. Winds left of 300 True in the morning, veering to the right of 300 True in the afternoon.

Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR. Gusty N winds Wed night, veering NE/E in the afternoon.

Thursday night: Increasing chance of showers with MVFR cond late.

Friday: Showers and possibly an afternoon tstm, with MVFR or lower cond. S winds 10-15 G20kt in the morning, becoming SW 15-20 G25kt in the afternoon, with peak gusts up up 30 kt.

Friday night: VFR. NW winds 20-25 G30-35kt. A peak gust up to 40 kt possible at the NYC metros.

Saturday: VFR. NW winds 20 G30-35kt. A peak gust up to 40 kt possible at the NYC metros.

Sat NIght - Sunday: VFR. Diminishing winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions develop this evening on the ocean waters with gusts to 25 kt and seas around 5 ft. SCA conditions with gusts up to 25 kt are also expected on the Great South Bay tonight.
Winds and seas subside early Wednesday, but 5 ft seas could linger east of Moriches Inlet for much of the morning.
Conditions will then remain below SCA levels Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.

Increasing S winds Friday will bring a return to SCA conditions on all waters. There is then potential for gales on all waters Friday night into Saturday behind a cold front passage. Will mention this potential in the HWO. Winds will start weakening late Saturday into Saturday night with a return to sub SCA conditions on Sunday.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

October 14: KEWR: 85/1975 KBDR: 80/1990 KNYC: 84/1920 KLGA: 82/1975 KJFK: 82/1990 KISP: 81/1990

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ345-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353.