Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday July 2, 2020 5:39 AM EDT (09:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:10PMMoonset 3:10AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 346 Am Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Today..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 346 Am Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. An upper level low along the new england coast this morning will continue to gradually pull away from the area today. A cold front will then pass through on Friday, followed by building canadian maritime high pressure for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayville, NY
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location: 40.9, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 020846 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 446 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weakening upper level low along the New England coast this morning will gradually pull away from the area today. A back door cold front will then pass through on Friday, followed by weak high pressure for the weekend. A weak frontal system approaches early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Expect a bit of a respite today from the convection associated with an upper low over New England the last couple of days. The latter of which will gradually pull away from the area today with some drier air and building heights. HiRes models still hinting at some widely scattered convection during the mid to late afternoon across the interior. Outside of a seabreeze and differential heating, there is not much of a trigger with high a LFC due to drier air in the low levels.

The bigger story will be a noticeably warmer day with less cloud cover as high temperatures get well into the 80s with a few lower 90s across the interior and possibly NYC. The immediate coast will be a bit cooler with an afternoon seabreeze kicking in. It will also be less humid with dew points possibly dropping into the 50s in some spots this afternoon (although forecast in the lower 60s).

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches today due to a continued SE swell.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/. Expect a manly clear, seasonable night tonight with lows generally in the 60s, with a few 50s possible in some of the normally colder locations.

A blocking pattern featuring a high amplitude ridge across the mid section of the country will allow for some amplification of an upper trough across eastern Canada. In turn, this will send a backdoor cold front and building high over the Canadian maritimes southeast into the area Friday into Saturday. The cold front will work from NE to SW late Friday morning into the early evening hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely, which will work west in the afternoon. The axis of greatest instability looks to be across the interior, especially north and west of NYC, where temperatures will once again get into the upper 80s and possibly 90 on Friday. SPC has placed this area under a marginal risk for Friday with the main threat being damaging winds (5 percent). Shear is marginal, so any severe is likely to be of the pulse type.

The cold front works west of the area Friday night with widely scattered showers possible overnight into Saturday morning with some shortwave energy in the NW flow aloft. However, expect a mainly dry 4th of July with a considerably cooler airmass in place with an easterly flow due to high pressure along the New England coast. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is a few degrees below normal.

There remains a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Friday due to a SE swell.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High temperatures Sunday will moderate slightly with a widely scattered convection possibly inland in the afternoon.

By early next week, a stronger shortwave moves through the Great Lakes by Tuesday. At the surface, a warm front pushes through the area Monday into Tuesday, which may just wash out. Temperatures are seasonable with a slight warm up expected by midweek.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. An upper level low along the northeast coast will begin to weaken and drift east Thursday.

VFR. Patchy fog and stratus at the outlying terminals over eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut are possible overnight, and IFR conditions may occur toward morning at the these terminals.

VFR Thursday for most of the forecast area with isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly after 16Z and through the lower Hudson Valley and northeastern New Jersey.

Light and variable winds through the morning though there may be a NW light flow. South winds from the developing sea breezes are expected once again during Thursday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. VFR. Slight chance of shwrs and tstms east of the New York City early in the evening. Fri. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible. Sat. Mainly VFR. Isold shwrs and tstms possible mainly wrn arpts. Sun-Mon. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible, especially wrn areas.

MARINE. Conditions should remain below SCA levels across all waters through the weekend with a weak low pressure system drifting south and east of the waters and high pressure building in from the Canadian maritimes. Winds may gust up to 20kts for a short period Saturday afternoon across the ocean waters due to the gradient between the high and low.

HYDROLOGY. Locally heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms that occur over the forecast period, but widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and increasing astronomical tides will bring waters levels across western Long Island Sound and the south shore back bays of western Long Island close to minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening high tide cycles through the upcoming weekend. Based on Steven's NYHOPS-E being overdone the last few high tide cycles and considering it's coarser SNAP-Ex being better, preference is toward a blend with the lower ETSS and ESTOFS. This keeps waters levels just below minor tonight. That being said, guidance all indicates a gradual uptick through the week due to the approaching full moon. Thus, there is the potential for a statement or an advisory level event as we head into Friday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . DW NEAR TERM . DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . DW/DBR AVIATION . DJ MARINE . DJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . // EQUIPMENT . //


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 4 mi39 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 1 ft65°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi54 min Calm G 3.9 67°F 67°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi51 min E 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 1010.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi51 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 70°F1009.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi51 min 70°F 71°F1010.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi51 min NNW 4.1 G 6 70°F 1010 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi51 min 69°F 74°F1010.3 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi51 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi39 min NW 7.8 G 12 1009.5 hPa (-0.6)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 39 mi51 min WNW 8 G 8.9 70°F 74°F1010.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi51 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 69°F1009.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi29 min WNW 9.7 G 12 72°F 75°F1009.6 hPa69°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair67°F62°F84%1010.1 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi1.7 hrsW 510.00 miFair65°F63°F93%1009.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi48 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds70°F63°F79%1009.8 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi48 minNNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds65°F63°F93%1010.3 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi48 minVar 410.00 miFair69°F64°F87%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE3N5CalmCalmCalmN6SW7S11S9SW10SW10S12SW6SW6W4--NE6CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm
1 day agoN5NE7NE6NE7NE7CalmCalm6W7SW63S3E5E6E5SE4S5CalmNE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN5N7N7N9N12N10N10N8N8N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
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Bayville Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:45 AM EDT     7.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:59 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:05 PM EDT     8.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.13.11.3-0-0.40.423.95.777.36.65.23.61.90.70.20.82.34.36.488.78.2

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:08 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:13 PM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:32 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.200.40.910.70.30-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.3-0.10.10.610.80.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.