Prospect, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Prospect, PA

June 16, 2024 9:02 PM EDT (01:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM
Moonrise 2:45 PM   Moonset 1:19 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Expires:202406170215;;132441 Fzus51 Kcle 161943 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 343 pm edt Sun jun 16 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>148-170215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh- 343 pm edt Sun jun 16 2024

Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees, off cleveland 68 degrees, and off erie 68 degrees.

LEZ100
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prospect, PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 162348 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 748 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A prolonged and potentially dangerous heat wave is anticipated this week. A Heat Excessive Watch is in effect Monday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet evening with lows around 5 degrees above average.

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Southerly flow has counteracted mixing into a pretty dry boundary layer and kept dew points steady, if not rising by a degree or two, into this evening. Diurnal cumulus deck has mostly dissipated with the loss of daytime heating and skies will remain mostly clear under stout ridging. Subsequent with the continuing light southerly flow overnight, low temperatures will range in the low to mid-60s, about 5 degrees above the climatological average.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- The potential for record breaking heat is expected Monday into Tuesday, Excessive Heat Watch is in effect.
- Weak shortwave activity may stir isolated showers/storms late Monday afternoon - If stronger storms develop, downbursts may prompt a damaging wind threat.

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Ensembles have been consistent on the amplification of a ridge on Monday, with 591dm building to the north of the forecast area. The forecast headache Monday is the risk for cu development and scattered showers and storms. Hi-Res guidance suggest late afternoon convection. With sufficient instability, surface based CAPE ranging between 2500J/kg to 3000J/kg under strong surface heating and weak flow, strong downbursts could develop between 3pm to 7pm Monday.

Latest NBM probs for measurable rainfall are generally 20 to 30% across the entire area Monday. This seems high when factoring in everything working against convection. The ridges may be the place to watch as the low-level flow would bring orographic lift into the equation which could be enough to overcome those limiting ingredients.

Therefore, if we do see an increase in clouds and/or perhaps convection, this will obviously effect Mondays temperatures.
Coordination was made with surrounding offices to hold the Excessive Heat Watch for Monday for now. In the next 12 hours, a Heat Advisory may be issued for areas that have medium to high confidence that dry conditions prevail.

The ridge will continue to amplify on Tuesday as we see heights of 594dm-596dm across the region. 850mb temperatures continue to rise as well as +18C to +20c spreads northward across the entire forecast area. Still seeing indications of a shower/storm threat Tuesday as more waves of energy rotate overtop of the ridge. However, the NBM has shifted focus for activity on Tuesday further north toward the I-80 corridor as everything is forced northward due to the expanding 500mb heights. The story for activity Tuesday remains the same as Monday, but the area under the threat has decreased.

So what does that mean for temperatures Tuesday? With the strengthening ridge and warming aloft, would think that cu coverage, for most of the region, would decrease on Tuesday, which should translate into hotter surface temperatures. This is showing up in the NBM probabilities for highs >95 degrees.
Probs of 50-70% have spread across most of the region, outside of the mountain tops and even starting to see probs of >98 degrees in low lying and rural areas. So this will be a building heat that should increase from Monday into Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in a dangerous heat wave holding through the week with major heat impacts possible.
- Excessive Heat Watch in effect through Friday.
- Seeing some timing differences on when the hottest air arrives.
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The numbers and timing of the most extreme heat continue to evolve, but our overall expectations have not changed for this period. We are looking at a potentially historic heat wave for Pittsburgh and the Upper Ohio Valley, with impacts to public health and utilities a possibility.

Model cluster analysis continues to paint a high-confidence picture of the overall pattern. An anomalously strong 500 mb ridge will persist over the eastern CONUS through Friday and possibly into early Saturday, reaching its peak during the Wednesday/Thursday period, before potentially becoming a bit more muted Sunday.
Both the EPS and GEFS means have 500mb heights of 597dm or higher during that period. This sets the stage for a prolonged period of high temperatures well into the 90s. NBM probabilities of highs >95 increase and expand Wednesday through Friday to 50% to 90% for the region, with probabilities >100 confined to 30% to 50% in the valleys on Wednesday, but 30% to 50% for much of the lowlands on Thursday and Friday. There is a possibility that these values are underdone. Given the strength/position of this ridge, precipitation chances and cloud development are quite low, especially during the Wed- Fri period, which will cause an increasing dry surface, promoting higher temperatures.
Further, dew points were nudged down a hair during the daytime hours, and temperatures were raised slightly above the deterministic NBM. Given that sun angles are at their annual peak, insolation will add another warming factor via a super- adiabatic surface layer. This will be a building heat, that will slightly increase each day.

When considering dewpoints, heat index values in the 100 to 110 range are in the cards for a few days. There does remain some uncertainty in how widespread and long-lasting these kind of heat index values will be from day to day. This normally has implications for what kinds of heat-related headlines would be appropriate. However, we feel that this event will have a length and impact that the standard criteria may not capture. So the Excessive Heat Watch will remain in place for the entire forecast area Monday through Friday.

There are still uncertainties with the forecast. But signals this impressive do not come around very often.

Considering heat effect will be cumulative, late week is looking particularly dangerous. The early season event, near-record temperatures, and temperatures increasing slightly each day will compound any existing heat issues.

Potential impacts include heightened heat-related illnesses and power grid issues with increased demand. It is strongly encouraged to know where cooling shelters are located and stay hydrated. There may be little relief at night. Gather food, water and medication now. Make a list of friends and family to check on and help them prepare. Strongly consider rescheduling outdoor events. Prolonged exposure to excessive heat was the primary cause of weather-related fatalities in 2023.

This certainly is increasing slightly that there will be some relaxation to the heat by early next week, but any relaxation will still leave temperatures well above average. In the Saturday-Sunday timeframe, all clusters reflect some flattening of the ridge, but disagree on the degree of flattening. Some maintain zonal flow or perhaps even weak eastern troughing early next week, but even the coolest scenarios have temperatures around average to start next week. The warmest scenarios maintain near-record heat. SHould we stay quasi-zonal into next week, we may get slight relief, but there as a notable fraction on ensemble guidance that redevelops eastern ridging. CPC maintains a moderate risk of excessive heat through 6/24.

Please see the Climate section below for more numerical details on the kinds of records that may be in jeopardy.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions and light winds prevail throughout the TAF period under building high pressure. Winds will be light and variable through the evening.

Weak shortwave activity may stir isolated showers/storms after 19Z tomorrow afternoon. However, weak flow prompts a low confidence for terminal impacts.

Outlook
High probability for VFR and dry weather through the middle of next week as strong ridging develops aloft.

The only variance may come with isolated afternoon convection starting Monday, but upper ridging should suppress coverage and potential initiation.

CLIMATE
The area has the potential to break various heat-related records. In this climate section, we will attempt to address some of the higher-profile historical temperature records.

First, we cannot rule out that some sites approach all time record high temperatures:

Pittsburgh, PA: 103F (7/16/1988, 8/6/1918, 7/10/1881)
Wheeling, WV: 106F (7/22/1934, 8/6/1918)
Morgantown, WV: 105F (8/26/1893)
New Philadelphia, OH: 102F (7/17/1988)
Zanesville, OH: 106F (7/14/1936, 7/25/1934)
DuBois, PA: 101F (07/22/2011)

There is modest probability that climate sites approach the highest temperatures recorded in the 21st century:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (7/7/2012)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (7/7/2012)
Morgantown, WV: 101F (7/7/2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
DuBois, PA: 101F (7/22/2011)

Due to the how early in the summer this heat wave is, there is a high probability many June all-time temperature records may be at stake:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988)
Wheeling, WV: 100F (1933)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893)
New Philadelphia, OH: 99F (1988)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (1988,1934)
DuBois, PA: 92F (1969)

Due to the duration of the heat, sites will also approach records for consecutive days greater than 95F (dates are the day the streak ended):

Pittsburgh, PA: 6 (6/20/1994, 8/11/1900)
Wheeling, WV: 8 (7/15/1936)
Morgantown, WV: 9 (9/16/1997, 7/19/1892)
New Philadelphia, OH: 5 (7/27/2016, 7/10/1988)
Zanesville, OH: 9 (9/4/1953)
DuBois, PA: 3 (7/9/1988)

And it should go without question that daily high maximum (left)
and high minimum (right) temperature records are at stake for:

Monday, June 17th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 75F (1892)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1936) 69F (2004)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1967) 72F (1939)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1967) 69F (2022)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1936) 72F (1994)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1994) 66F (1892)

Tuesday, June 18th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 73F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1944) 71F (2018)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1994) 70F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 72F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1944) 73F (1944)
DuBois, PA: 89F (2018) 69F (2018)

Wednesday, June 19th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 74F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1933) 70F (2021)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1994) 72F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1994) 70F (2018)
Zanesville, OH: 94F (1994) 75F (1897)
DuBois, PA: 87F (2001) 66F (1975)

Thursday, June 20th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 78F (1924)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1933) 70F (1924)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893) 75F (1924)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 71F (2009)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1934) 75F (1924)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 66F (1996)

Friday, June 21st Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1933) 73F (1934)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1933) 69F (2016)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1953) 72F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1994) 72F (2016)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 68F (1988)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.




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