Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Prospect, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Increasing potential for isolated to scattered severe storms mid-week

2) Heavy rain and localized flooding possible this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio

3) Hot temperatures with near-record overnight warmth this week

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Daily scattered shower and thunderstorms chances begin today with a series of crossing shortwaves. The combination of a moisture-rich airmass, above-average temperatures, and weak ridging is expected to increase the risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall during the middle of the week.
Any strong storms could produce a range of hazards, including damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes, and localized flooding.

Potential for isolated to scattered severe storms has increased for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Increasing surface moisture (widespread 70+ dew points) and warm surface temperatures will significantly boost instability by Wednesday afternoon, with MLCAPE values of 1500-2500+ J/kg. Bulk shear is somewhat marginal, with values around 20-25kts. Still, this should be sufficient to support a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail. ML guidance indicates a 15-30% probability for severe weather, and SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe storms.

ML guidance has backed off severe potential a bit for Thursday, but still indicates ~15% probabilities for the area. Despite substantial CAPE, weak ridging, lacking shear, and dry mid- levels may inhibit updraft development.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Potential for localized flash flooding begins this afternoon and evening continues for the Zanesville area as scattered showers and thunderstorms overspread the region with a crossing shortwave. Precipitable water (PWAT) values near 2.0" (near the 99th percent of climatology) and dewpoints near 70F are expected to move into central and eastern Ohio by this afternoon. mbE vectors <15 kts also indicate potential for training and backbuilding storms.

HRRR probabilities for 2 inches of rain for the ZZV area have decreased a bit from previous runs (down to 20~30%), but given exceptionally high PWATs and potential for slow moving/backbuilding storms, the threat for isolated flash flooding continues. WPC has highlighted the area in a Marginal (1/4) risk for excessive rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Confidence is high in temperatures of 5 to 15 degrees above the climatological average today into this weekend. Daily high temperatures are likely to fall short of the daily record highs in the mid/upper 90s this week, especially with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. However, overnight lows in the lower 70s late week will be near record warm minimums. Warm overnight temperatures are particularly dangerous during prolonged periods of heat. Large portions of the area have a 70%+ chance of Major Heat Risk on Thursday, with high probabilities of Moderate Heat Risk other days this week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
General VFR is expected through the day outside of local shower/thunderstorm-related restrictions. An approaching shortwave combined with a strong influx of moisture continues to lower cloud decks early this morning. Low probability showers and thunderstorms are possible through the morning, with highest probabilities over eastern Ohio (ZZV).

Daytime heating with increasing moisture should result in more widespread shower/thunderstorm development after 18z. Heavy rain may result in periods of IFR or lower visibilities. Thunder chances will diminish by around 03z Wednesday, but scattered showers should persist through the overnight. Ceilings will lower into IFR overnight through Wednesday morning.

Outlook...
A warm, moist environment with intermittent passing of upper shortwaves favor daily thunderstorm chances through the rest of the week. Restrictions are likely with any storm while excessive rain could create cig/vis impacts even during non-rain periods, likely around the dawn hours.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.