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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 942 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely with a slight chance of rain showers late this evening, then a chance of snow showers with a slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers with a slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 44 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 052341 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 641 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Light snow or rain can be expected through tonight as low pressure crosses the region. A few snow showers will continue into Wednesday, mainly at higher elevations of West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Dry, warmer weather returns late in the week with high pressure, before strong low pressure brings rain this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Evening Update...
Only minor updates made to the forecast this evening as the previous forecast (discussion below) remains largely on track.
Light rain/snow mix has shifted to predominantly along and south of I-70 per latest radar imagery, so maintained highest PoPs in that area through this evening. Light snow showers may linger overnight along the high terrain as winds become northwesterly in the wake of the cold front passage. There is also some potential for light snow showers to linger north of I-80 due to lake enhancement in the boundary layer, but it will be combating larger-scale subsidence occurring in the wake of the passing upper shortwave trough as ridging builds in, so coverage is expected to remain scattered at best and accumulations low.

Previous Discussion...
A positively tilted shortwave trough on the wrn periphery of a deep trough to the south of Greenland will advance sewd across the Great Lakes region during the next 24 hrs. Ascent attendant to the left exit-region of the associated mid-level jet has sustained a broad shield of light precipitation for much of the day.

Wet-bulb effects have helped decrease dewpoint depressions across the region, with many areas transitioning from initial light snow to light rain and drizzle. With little change in temperature, and wet-bulb impacts past their maximum effectiveness, more of the same is expected for the next few hours until the trough axis progresses sufficiently to limit ascent and help advance the system's cold front sewd.

Main exception to the above is in the ridges, where temperature has been and will be cold enough for snow, and PTYPE is expected (with near 100% confidence) to remain all snow in the ridges for the duration of the event.

After 00Z, synoptic ascent should increasingly be confined to the sern zones as the left exit-region of the jet translates sewd. Ridge-zone ascent will be supplemented by strengthening upslope flow in the wake of the low-level cold front.

Snow rates shortly will begin to increase in the ridges of ern Tucker County WV, as a swath of moderate precipitation translates ewd into the area. Total accumulations are most likely to average around 3.0" for ern Tucker County (amounts will be highly elevation dependent, given the vertical temperature profile), where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect thru Wed. The higher-end forecast scenario yields nearer 5.0".

A typical cloudy, cold day is in the offing for Wed across the region, with limited diurnal increase owing to persistent cloud cover. Impactful snow in the ridges is likely to wind down earlier than the 7pm Wed expiration of the advisory, so the headline certainly could be ended earlier than scheduled.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As the low south of Greenland advances ewd and deepens, the upstream ridge axis will amplify and progress quickly ewd into the Great Lakes region.

Subsidence and attendant decreasing clouds suggest high likelihood of dry and warming conditions as increasing sun is experienced and return flow ensues.

Worth watching in this period is the potential for light snow/rain within the warm-advection regime preceding the passage of the warm-frontal zone early Thu morning. At this time, the most- likely scenario does not favor precipitation development except perhaps in the I-80 corridor of Jefferson PA/Clarion Counties.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
There is high confidence in temperature to end the week, with an amplifying ridge and strong sly flow ensuing in advance of a central-CONUS trough that is expected to approach the Upper Ohio Valley on Sun.

A rapid warm-up to above-normal temperature is anticipated for Fri/Sat, likely continuing into Sun as showers develop. Cluster analysis suggests that the source of forecast uncertainty with respect to the Sun timeframe mainly pertains to the timing of the arrival of the central-CONUS trough. A slower arrival means rain could be delayed, temperature could get warmer and potential for deeper showers with gusty wind. A faster arrival means earlier rain and limited insolation.

Also being monitored is the potential for gusty wind on Sun, as the sfc-low track is likely to follow a path similar to local research-identified conceptual models favoring strong wind. This potential will continue to be monitored.

Although there is some uncertainty associated with timing of the central-CONUS trough passage on Mon, the primary driver of variability is with respect to the strength of the trough, with a substantive percentage of ensemble members suggesting a much stronger trough than the ensemble mean. This suggests the possibility of a colder, deeper trough, gusty wind and a cool start to next week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Light rain and snow continues this evening as IFR (and even locally LIFR) cigs continue to creep in from the southwest and become more predominant across the region. All ports should be IFR by late this evening with precipitation largely changing over to snow. Latest guidance shows a 60% chance of IFR cigs tonight, however, there has been a notable bias to underforecast IFR cigs with this system. Gradual improvement to MVFR is expected Wednesday morning as the low pressure exits to the east and ridging builds into the area. Return to VFR is most likely to occur after the 18Z-21Z timeframe Wednesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK
VFR conditions prevail through Saturday. The next impactful system with associated restrictions and rain is expected Sunday into Monday.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ514.

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