Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 4:05 PM   Moonset 4:14 AM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 339 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening - .
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of sprinkles through the early overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Saturday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Sunday - West winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 57 degrees, off cleveland 47 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 200505 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 105 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Seasonably cool temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the weekend with potential for frost/freezing conditions Sunday and Monday morning. Building high pressure will return above average temperatures mid-week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and relatively cool conditions are expected.
- No Hazardous weather.

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Dry, quiet weather is expected overnight in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures will be near the climatological average due to lingering clouds.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slightly below average temperature and dry weather expected through the weekend.
- Potential for frost and/or freeze impacts Sunday morning.
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The Upper Ohio River Valley will be positioned underneath upper troughing Saturday, including passage of the trough axis during the afternoon hours. While the passage will reinforce the cold advection across the region, maintaining temperatures slightly below average, there will be a lack of deep moisture or synoptic lift to generate showers, save for closer to the lake shore and into NY state. Deep mixing with surface heating will keep conditions gusty on Saturday. NBM probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 20mph are near 100% with a period of gusts exceeding 30mph along the timeframe of the trough passage.

Fairly fast, zonal flow will be present thereafter and through the weekend with high pressure building over the region at the surface keeping conditions dry and cool.

With ridging in place, there remains a concern for frost/freeze as much of the forecast area is now in the growing season both Sunday Morning and Monday Morning. The latest NBM has a 40-60% chance both days, especially north of Pittsburgh. There is a concern that elevated winds could be a limiting factor Saturday night but the high pressure will be more settled over the region Sunday night. For now, will continue to highlight this in the HWO.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- The next low pressure system and associated precipitation chances is likely for late Tuesday into Wednesday.
- Ridging is favored for the late week period, pointing to rising temperature heading into the weekend.
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Though ensemble models vary in trough analysis moving across the southeast U.S. Monday, the outcome remains the same for the Upper Ohio River Valley: rising heights aloft and the influence of high pressure will support dry conditions and seasonable temperature Monday.

There is fairly high consensus on the next upper level trough and associated surface low to drop from the north central plains through the Great Lakes late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of the system, weak warm advection will support above normal temperature and increasing cloud cover before the system's arrival. Widespread showers and low probability thunderstorms are then likely as the system crosses the region. Depth of the upper trough remains the biggest uncertainty during this period, which will strongly influence the timing of precipitation passage and degree of cold advection behind the system.

The late week period will be defined by the progression of the upper trough through the northeast CONUS and the rapidity of height rises in its wake. Dry weather will be favored given high confidence of surface high pressure, with the degree of temperature recovery in the post-cold front passage environment dictated by said height rises.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Broad upper troughing and impinging surface high pressure will support VFR conditions and erosion of sub-5kft stratocu layers during the early morning hours today, leaving waves of mid to high level clouds. Shortwave passage this afternoon will push through a secondary cold front, promoting slight veering of wind profiles to NW and reinforce sfc gradients that promote 20 to 30kts daytime gusts. No precipitation is expected with the front.

Outlook
High confidence in VFR conditions through a majority of Tuesday under the influence of high pressure. Passage of a low pressure system will bring widespread precipitation and restriction late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensemble models favor dry weather and VFR conditions to end the work week.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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