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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1223 Am Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 1223 Am Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure over the region through Thursday will slowly weaken beginning Thursday night, and give way to an approaching frontal system on Friday. The associated cold front will pass through Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will then build from the south and west on Sunday.

FXUS61 KOKX 040529 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the region through Thursday will slowly weaken beginning Thursday night and give way to an approaching frontal system on Friday. The associated cold front will pass through Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will then likely build from the south and west Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Forecast remains on track into the overnight with only subtle adjustments to align with current conditions. Absent patchy fog development into early morning, a quiet night is expected with high pressure in place and the previous discussion follows.

Generally tranquil conditions are expected through the middle of the week as a ridge of high pressure remains centered over the Northeast. Clear skies are expected overnight and with light to calm winds, radiational cooling takes place once again. Lows are to drop into the 50s for the interior. Coastal and urban areas bottom out in the low 60s. Additionally, dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s will likely result in areas of fog developing overnight as temperatures cool. Fog may become locally dense in a couple of spots. Any SPSs for dense fog will be handled as it occurs.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
High pressure remains firmly overhead on Wednesday so another day of dry and clear conditions are expected. Higher heights and a light flow will allow for temperatures to once again climb into the 80s for much of the area. While record highs are not expected to be broken, temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above average. Coastal areas that are typically prone to seabreeze influence may only rise into the upper 70s.

Light winds and clear skies will once again result in a favorable radiational cooling environment Wednesday night. Dew points will prevent lows from dropping too much but lows in the low to middle 50s are expected for Interior areas with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s for coastal areas. Patchy fog is once again expected to develop overnight. Locally dense fog will remain possible.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Heights fall on Thursday as the upper ridge axis shifts offshore ahead of a digging H5 trough into the Upper Midwest. Upper low in the trough eventually closes and cuts off from the flow over the Great Lakes this weekend, potentially meandering nearby into early next week.

Late this week, E/SE flow strengthens as 1030 mb surface high pressure shifts offshore south of the Canadian Maritimes.
As the upper level trough approaches, an associated surface low will track well to our north and west. This low will drag a cold front through the area late Saturday into Saturday night, with the potential for a wave of low pressure to form along the front over or near our area. As it approaches, TC Phillipe will be moving north through the open Atlantic. Global guidance indicates the negatively tilted trough may bend Phillipe back to the west.
While the center is expected to remain well offshore, some of the moisture may get transported locally in the flow, though this will need to be fine tuned over the next several days. As of now, the system overall continues to look progressive. With a moist air mass in place, BUFKIT soundings indicate PWATs increase to about 1.75 inches ahead of the cold front on Saturday, rain (or drizzle) chances increase Friday afternoon and become likely late Friday night through Saturday. Locally heavy downpours will be possible, with perhaps an embedded rumble of thunder or two. Total rainfall looks to average around an inch region wide. The cold front moves through Saturday afternoon, with winds increasing and veering westerly behind it. Lingering showers are possible for the next several days with the upper level low, mainly north and west of NYC. Drier weather returns by early next week with high pressure building to the south and west.

After an initial mild start to the period, temperatures fall below normal behind the fropa on Saturday. Highs in the 70s continue Thu and Fri, before trending down through the weekend. Temperatures likely struggle to climb out of the 50s everywhere Sunday and Monday with the cool upper low meandering nearby. Largely followed the National Blend of Models for this update, with only subtle adjustment.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure builds overnight, then moves offshore late in the day Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. Some patchy fog expected overnight, mainly for outlying terminals. Patchy fog included for SWF/HPN/ISP/ GON. Confidence for fog occurrence remains too low at this time to include at remaining terminals.

Winds will be light and variable overnight, then out of the SE on Wednesday mainly around 5 kt in the afternoon. The winds will remain light into the Wednesday evening push, mainly out of the S-SE at 5 kt or less. Winds become light and variable again Wednesday night.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of vsby restrictions at terminals, but possible for KEWR, KTEB, and KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night...MVFR or lower in fog with light to calm winds.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...MVFR or lower possible. Rain possible by aftn.

Saturday...MVFR or lower with rain.

Sunday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub SCA conditions are expected through at least Thursday under a weak pressure gradient with high pressure remaining in control. A continuing ocean swell is also expected.

Conditions remain below SCA thresholds through Friday. Increasing SE flow ahead of a cold front into the weekend should allow ocean seas to build to around 5 ft Saturday. Wind gusts may exceed 25 kt on the ocean on Sunday before subsiding. Non ocean waters largely remain below SCA criteria through this time.

Ocean seas will remain elevated into early next week as long period swells from distant Tropical Storm Philippe move into the waters.
Refer to the National Hurricane Center, https:/ www.nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts on Philippe.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns expected through at least Thursday. A period of showers is likely late Friday through Saturday, with around an inch of rainfall expected at this time. WPC currently has the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, indicating the potential for nuisance flooding and isolated flash flooding.

EQUIPMENT
The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge remains out of service for unrepresentative data. The gauge is currently being looked into by our partners at the USGS.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Stony Brook
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Wed -- 03:33 AM EDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:42 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:51 PM EDT     6.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:25 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Mount Sinai Harbor
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Wed -- 03:30 AM EDT     5.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:50 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:48 PM EDT     6.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

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