Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stony Brook, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry and seasonable through Tuesday.

2) Water levels will be close to minor coastal flood benchmarks through Wednesday for the nighttime high tide cycles.

3) A robust low pressure system may impact the area later this week with another chance for severe thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Following a cold frontal passage this morning, dry and seasonable conditions will be on tap through Tuesday. Aloft, the westerlies will dominate the northern two thirds of the country with a broad upper trough from the Northern Plains all the way to the eastern seaboard. This will allow for cooler temperatures. At the surface, weak high pressure builds east through Tuesday, then offshore later in the day. Gusty NW winds this morning will fall by afternoon. A return southerly flow sets up Tuesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2
High astronomical tides due to the recent new moon will gradually fall off through midweek. However, water levels will be close to minor coastal flood benchmarks during the nighttime high tide cycles for the more vulnerable locations of the south shore of Nassau, coastal Fairfield, and portions of coastal NJ.
Without much wind forcing, expect this to mainly be statement worthy.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Warm advection showers, possibly a thunderstorm, will be on tap for Wednesday. Best chance will be from NYC and points north and west. Temperatures remain seasonable, but humidity will be on the increase in a southerly flow.

A strong low pressure system may develop over the center of the country and approach from the west later Wednesday night into Thursday. SPC has portions of the area on Thursday (Day 5) with a 15% chance of severe weather. Details regarding this possible system will come into focus in the coming days.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front passes offshore this mrng.

Conditions will continue to improve this mrng behind the front, with all areas likely VFR by 12Z. VFR then thru the rest of the TAF period.

Generally SSW flow ahead of the cold front, with winds becoming NW aft the fropa then persisting thru tngt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind shift to the NW may be off by an hour or so.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tonight through Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with a chances of sub VFR conditions increasing towards afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Sub VFR possible early, otherwise VFR with W winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-advisory conditions are forecast through Wednesday. During the late afternoon hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday a few southerly gusts may approach 20 kt, more so for the western ocean waters. A low pressure system approaching Thursday is forecast to bring SCA conditions to the waters with increasing southerly winds and building seas.

Rip currents: A moderate risk of rip current development is expected today and Tuesday with a lingering 2 to 3 ft light southerly swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350-353.