Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aquebogue, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure will continue to build over the area from the west through the day. This will result in a decreasing NW flow, though some morning gusts may persist. By afternoon, gusts will come to an end, resulting in mainly light and variable flow by tonight.

Given the continued NW flow and cold air advection, highs today will only rise into the low to possibly middle 40s, about 5-10 degree below average. Light and variable flow tonight under mostly clear skies should allow for temperatures to rapidly drop with efficient radiational cooling expected in the first part of the night. This should result in a rapid drop of temperatures into the middle to upper 20s for much of the area.
Coastal areas may drop into the low to middle 30s. Clouds will begin to move into the area from the west overnight ahead of the next frontal system, so any rapid drops in temperatures will cease and temperature may actually increase a bit, especially into the later half of the night and into Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A progressive shortwave approaches the area Sunday, eventually sliding north and west of the area. This will result in a large surface low pressure system impacting the area, the center of which passes well North of the area through the Great Lakes region and moving into Southeastern Canada.

Some precipitation may begin moving into the area from the west Sunday morning and depending on the surface temperatures, inland areas may begin as as a mixture of wet snow and rain if precip is able to move in quickly. Much of the eastern half of the area is expected to remain dry however for the first half of the day.
By afternoon, warm air advection allows for rapidly increasing temperatures especially along the coast. Highs are expected to be in the low to possible middle 50s along the coast with inland areas remaining in the 40s.

The chance of rain becomes likely much of the area by Sunday afternoon with generally light to locally moderate rainfall expected. Winds may also become gusty near the coast, generally 25-30 mph at times in the afternoon. The rain quickly moves east of the area Sunday evening with dry conditions returning overnight, especially towards midnight. The brief warmup ahead of the systems cold front ends Sunday night as a reinforcing shot of colder air advects in the area by day break Monday.
Temperatures based on the latest model consensus should fall into the lower to middle 30s by sunrise.

Another progressive high pressure system is expected for Monday with a diminishing NW flow into Monday afternoon and generally dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Highs will remain below average, generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows Monday night will be in the lower 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s along the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Points:

* Low pressure may bring the first bout of winter weather to the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty in the low track, which will be critical in determining precipitation type. At this time, it looks like mainly rain at the coast with rain/snow line somewhere over the interior.

* Below normal temperatures through next Friday.

NBM closely followed during this timeframe.

The focus for this forecast period will remain on a potential coastal low bringing wintry weather to the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Global models have trended farther NW with the low track the last 24h, with many of the 12Z operationals just inside the 40N...70W benchmark. The EPS/GEFS mean are farther SE, deeper, and more clustered around the mean, but there are also more members to the NW of the mean than recent days. While the Pac energy associated with this southern branch storm system is about to come onshore western Canada, there will likely be some run to run changes that are often critical to precipitation type across the area. In addition, with no blocking over the north Atlantic, high pressure quickly lifts out of the Northeast as the storm approaches, allowing for more of a marine influence and erosion of the cold air. This is why it is too difficult this far out to mention snowfall totals.
What does appear to be more certain though is for a strong coastal low to impact the region.

The forecast is more reflective of a consenus forecast. Such a track favors a mainly rain event at the coast, with a rain/snow line working inland. Inland locations have the best chance of seeing winter weather impacts at this time. NBM probabilities for greater than inch of snowfall range from 10-25 percent at the coast and 40- 70 percent inland. For an advisory level snow, these probabilities are 0-10 percent and 20-40 percent, respectively.

High pressure will primarily in control for the second half of the week, minus a cold frontal passage on Thursday.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will build across the area today, passing offshore tonight. A frontal system will then approach from the west on Sunday.

VFR through tonight. Clouds gradually thicken and lower after 06z Sunday with a low chance of rain after 14z. Rain becomes likely, mainly after 18z Sunday. Any rain that falls prior to 18z, is likely to fall in VFR conditions, however can not rule out some MVFR cigs late in the TAF period.

West/Northwest winds increase slightly with a some gusts during the morning and into the early afternoon. Some locations will be more occasional versus frequent, those will be handled through TEMPO groups. Gusts are then expected to end around 18-20z, with winds becoming light and variable toward 00z. Winds remain light and variable for much of tonight, then becoming more southerly on Sunday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Cannot rule out a few gusts stronger than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: Rain with MVFR conditions in the afternoon/evening. S winds G20- 25kt, highest near the coast.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR expected in the morning, IFR possible in the afternoon/evening. Precip type mainly snow at KSWF. Rain and/or snow at the onset at the other terminals, changing to rain in the morning.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Marginal SCA conditions continue on the ocean waters, with conditions slowly lowering. The advisory will be allowed to expire at 1100 AM EST, although seas across the far outer forecast waters may still be near 5 feet for an additional hour or two. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through tonight.
S-SE winds increase on Sunday into Sunday night with a frontal system impacting the waters. SCA conditions once again are expected on Sunday everywhere for wind gusts. SCA conditions linger into Monday morning on the ocean waters as high pressure builds in from the west. Confidence is increasing on a coastal low bringing a return to SCA conditions Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday. There is a low chance of a gale at this time.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ350- 353-355.