Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aquebogue, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Rain chances continue to decrease late tonight into Tuesday, with a good chance that it remains south altogether.

2) Prolonged period of gusty NE winds starting Tuesday and through late in the week. Potential for high surf, dangerous rip currents, beach erosion and some coastal flooding.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
An anomalously strong high pressure system centered north of the Great Lakes will build east across eastern Canada and the Northeast through midweek. Guidance has continued the trend south with rain as a frontal wave bucks up against drier, cooler air to the north. It nw looks like much of the area, if not all of it, will stay dry.
The best chance for some brief light rain and/or sprinkles will be around the NYC/NJ metro and south and west.

Another sign of the high winning out is the clearing across the area, which will be replaced by mid and increasing high clouds through tonight.

Lows tonight will range from around 50 well inland, to the around 60 across the NYC/NJ metro. Went above NBM due to increasing clouds and northeast winds increasing toward morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2
There has been overall eastward trend with offshore low pressure at the end of the week. However, the 12Z ECMWF, it ensemble and the EC-AIFS still remain close to land and haven't closed the door on a more impactful system across the area. The GFS and its members have gone farther to the east, due to the upper trough closing off farther offshore. The flow is complex with multiple streams interacting. Expect to see better model consensus in another 24h or so.

Even so, an anomalously strong 1040mb high across eastern Canada and broad low pressure off the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coasts will produce a strong pressure gradient. This in turn will keep the area in a gusty NE flow through the end of the week with gales across the ocean. At this time, wind headlines seem unlikely across land, but this will be highly dependent on storm track.

The combination of NE winds, increasing astronomical tides (full moon the 26th), and building seas will at the very least result in multiple episodes of minor to localized moderate coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents, and some beach flooding/erosion. The order of magnitude like everything else will depend on the aforementioned storm track. Coastal flooding is likely to begin with Wednesday afternoon's cycle.

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along all local ocean beaches Tuesday. Increasing E swells 8-10 ft at a 9 sec period, and strengthening NE flow above 20 kt drive this risk.

The high risk very likely persists through late this week with further building ocean swells and winds as an area of low pressure develops and intensifies offshore. Surf heights along the coastline increase through midweek as well, potentially topping 6 ft by Wed.
Ocean seas are forecast to reach in excess of 12 ft by Thursday.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure slowly builds into the region from the north as a weak wave of low pressure departs east.

Mainly VFR for the terminals. Low chance of SHRA late tonight and into Tuesday morning as a wave of low pressure passes south.
SHRA expected to dissipate as they approach the terminals but a SHRA or two may move into the area. Kept Prob30s for the NYC terminals for this potential but the trend is leaning more dry and VFR conditions.

N/NE winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt today. Winds will diminish late in the afternoon, remaining around 8-12kt through the night. Wind direction becomes more persistent NE tonight and gusts are expected to re-develop Tuesday morning with speeds 20-25kt once again.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed timing of end of gusts.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday: Mainly VFR with a low chance of MVFR in showers. NE wind gusts 20-25 kt

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NE winds 20-30 kt, highest at the coastal terminals.

Friday and Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. N-NE winds 15-20G30-40kt. Highest gusts east of NYC and along the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
NBM winds continue to look overdone based on latest guidance and model soundings. This reflected in the latest wind forecasts which bring more marginal gale conditions to the waters with the est chance being on Wednesday into Thursday. Gale watch starting time was pushed back to Tuesday evening on the ocean waters between 20 and 40nm, mirroring the nearshore ocean zones.
Confidence was not high enough at this time to go to a gale warning.

A closer low track Thursday into Friday could result in storm force winds and higher seas, but this seems less likely based on trends in the latest guidance. Seas on the ocean right now are forecast to build as high as 10 to 15 ft Wednesday night into Thursday

Rip currents: (See Key message 2)

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-340-345.
Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for ANZ331-332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385.