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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 549 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning, then showers and chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and chance of tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 549 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure remains in place into the day on Thursday, departing towards the atlantic Thursday night. This will give way to an approaching frontal system on Friday. The associated cold front passes through Saturday into Saturday night, but low pressure lingers over the northeast into early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 042355 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 755 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in place into the day on Thursday, departing towards the Atlantic Thursday night. This will give way to an approaching frontal system on Friday. The associated cold front passes through Saturday into Saturday night, but low pressure lingers over the Northeast into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Forecast remains on track this evening with high pressure in place. Previous discussion follows.

Tonight should start off clear under high pressure with stratus developing over the ocean. This will move over land overnight with areas of fog likely developing along coastal areas and river valleys in the interior. Patchy areas of the fog could become dense at times, with the best chance for this just before and after sunrise. The 12Z HRRR hints at a 70-80% chance for dense fog, particularly for immediate coastal areas and areas to the east. Fog should clear by mid-morning.

Temperatures overnight will cool to the low-50s in areas with elevation and in low-lying typical radiational cooling areas thanks to light winds. Clouds developing later at night will prevent areas from reaching the 40s. Otherwise, mid/upper-50s expected across the area with low-60s in the NYC metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure moves east of us over the Atlantic and offshore through the day tomorrow with partly cloudy skies. We'll remain dry, but afternoon temperatures will be cooler, only a few degrees above seasonal values in the low/mid-70s.

Second night of onshore flow may lead to more fog development Thursday night. Some warm air advection ahead of a frontal system could help to develop some showers late Thursday night- early Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface high pressure well to our north and east will continue the already prolonged period of SE-E onshore flow to start the period.
This will allow an increasingly humid air mass to advect into the area and could lead to patchy light rain or drizzle on Friday. At the same time, a digging upper trough approaches from the west, becoming negatively tilted as it reaches the East Coast. This likely helps pull TC Phillipe out in the open Atlantic back west, transporting some of the associated moisture locally in the flow. As the trough advances east, an associated surface low will track well to our north and west. This low will drag a cold front through the area late Saturday into Saturday night, bringing the highest chances for rain as it moves through.

NBM probabilities for 1 inch of rain over any 6 hr period on Saturday continue to be low (10-15%). Still, there remains the possibility of a few locally heavy downpours, as well as few thunderstorms with BUFKIT soundings indicating several hundred joules of CAPE ahead of the front. The cold front moves through Saturday afternoon, with winds increasing and veering westerly behind it. Rain chances largely taper off early Sunday and a cooler fall air mass advects in behind the fropa. The upper low cuts off from the flow, meandering over New England or southeast Canada through early next week. The deepening low to the north should result in a blustery end to the weekend. Gusts 20 to 30 mph appear likely much of Sunday. After 60s and 70s Fri/Sat, daytime highs tumble into the 50s and low 60s on Sunday, and continue to remain below normal Monday and Tuesday. Largely followed the National Blend of Models for this update, with winds nudged closer to the 90th percentile this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure over the area gradually weakens while slowly pushing offshore through Thursday and Thursday night.

VFR at most terminals until later in the overnight. Sub VFR conditions are likely to develop first across eastern most terminals as fog and stratus develop 06Z to 09Z, with most visibilities lowering to IFR approaching the morning push. Stratus is expected to develop, however there is uncertainty whether or not ceilings lower to IFR or lower at the NYC metro terminals, with IFR to LIFR more likely at the outlying terminals. The metro terminals should lower to MVFR in fog. Conditions improve back to VFR Thursday morning at 13Z to 15Z.

Winds will be light with a S to SE component, otherwise light and variable overnight, and light SE to S during the day Thursday. A few terminals get between 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty with the exact timing and flight category with respect to fog and low stratus development overnight. There remains uncertainty towards ceilings actually developing.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: sub VFR developing early, with IFR likely and possible pockets of LIFR.

Friday: MVFR or lower with a chance of rain showers.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain showers.

Sunday: VFR. W winds 15-20kt with gusts up to 25-30kt.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight through Thursday night under high pressure.

Ocean seas build late this week, reaching 5 ft by Saturday morning.
Winds increase behind a frontal passage late Saturday, with 25 to 30 kt gusts likely developing on all waters Saturday night into Sunday.
These winds persist through early Monday before subsiding.

Ocean seas remain elevated above SCA criteria into early next week as long period swells from distant Tropical Storm Philippe move into the waters.

Refer to the National Hurricane Center, https:/ www.nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts on Philippe.

HYDROLOGY
Showers are likely across the region Friday through Saturday as a frontal system moves through. The showers may fall locally heavy at times. Around an inch of rainfall is expected at this time. The Weather Prediction Center continues to place the region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for this event, indicating the potential for nuisance flooding, as well as isolated flash flooding.

EQUIPMENT
Data from the Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge appears to have improved. Will monitor the gauge over the next few days to make sure it is in line with other nearby gauges.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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South Jamesport
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Wed -- 04:09 AM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:27 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:23 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Wed -- 01:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:24 AM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:44 AM EDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:05 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:23 PM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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