Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aquebogue, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dangerous rip currents expected Thursday into Thursday evening with high rip current risk in effect. High risk of rip currents possible Friday.

2) Minor coastal flooding in some spots along South Shore Bays and Southern Fairfield late tonight around times of high tide.

3) Breezy conditions with the potential for severe thunderstorms Thursday.

4) Rain, potentially heavy early next week with thunderstorms possible Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Southerly flow to near 25-30 kt will create rough surf and dangerous rip currents along the ocean beaches Thursday into Thursday evening. Breaking waves near 4 to 7 ft are likely with increasing southerly swell of near 7 to 8 ft with 7 to 8 second period. High rip current risk remains in effect.

With southerly swell remaining of nearly the same period into Friday, despite the more along shore winds, surf heights of near 4 to 6 ft is forecast which would allow for high risk of rip currents. Did not have high confidence to extend high risk of rip currents into Friday. Want to see how wind and wave forecast holds for Thursday but there is that potential for the high risk of rip currents on Friday.


KEY MESSAGE 2
With gradually lowering astronomical tide levels as we move farther away in time from the new moon but a more south to southeast flow, total water levels are going to be around the same levels as those of the previous night. So the total water levels around the time of high tide tonight will be similar to the total water levels for last night's high tide. Therefore, once again, some locations along the South Shore Bays of Southern Queens and Southern Nassau counties as well as Southern Fairfield CT will briefly rise just to near minor coastal flood benchmarks.

Surge models indicate a more substantial decline in total water level for the next few nighttime high tides later this week, so tonight should be the last night of minor coastal flooding in some spots around high tide looking ahead into the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 3
A strong low pressure system passing over the Great Lakes Thursday morning will bring impacts to the area. A warm front pushes north into the early morning hours which may be accompanied by scattered light showers or spotty drizzle, mainly for the northern tier. As we become warm sectored, a southerly flow increases over the area quite substantially resulting in sustained winds 15-20mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph. A few gusts may approach 40 mph, especially in any areas that are able to scatter out a morning overcast cloud deck.

By late morning, western areas may be able to break out into some sunshine which will assist in raising temperatures, increasing wind via BL mixing, and increase instability. The cold front then pushes in from the west into the early afternoon. The dynamics of this system are more robust that usual with 0-6 km shear on the order of 50-70kt. The biggest question will be on the development of sufficient instability for the front to interact with and develop thunderstorms. The thinking now is that by early afternoon, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop west of the area and moves fairly quickly east such that the primary threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains from 12-5pm. The primary threat for any thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts.

As any thunderstorm shifts east, interactions with the marine BL near the coast should allow for the weakening of any storms given the lack of instability. If a storm remains persistent enough as it travels east, it may be local strong enough to bring strong wind gusts through the low level inversion, though this remains a decreasing threat for areas further east.

The storm threat quickly ends by evening with winds falling off toward sunset as well as the winds shift to a more WSW with the frontal passage.


KEY MESSAGE 4
Low pressure is expected to approach from the south and west towards early next week. Mid levels have shortwave energy approaching around the same time from the north and west.
Onshore flow will make for relatively cooler temperatures across the region Monday. Shower chances start late Sunday night, become most likely Monday and taper off early Tuesday.
Rain could potentially be heavy at times with slight chance of thunderstorms Monday. Potential for a few inches of rainfall accumulations looking at long range ensemble forecast. PWATS could approach near 1.75 inches for Monday across the coastal areas.

Subsequent forecasts will likely have timing changes as there is uncertainty with model placement of precipitation and low pressure.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A warm front lifts to the north tonight into Thursday morning. A cold front moves through Thursday afternoon.

VFR through 06z for all terminals. Then sub VFR possible, more so for further east approaching and into the morning push. Western terminals may remain mostly VFR with a period of MVFR possible late in the overnight into early Thu AM.

Showers become possible Thu AM as the warm front moves through, especially to the NW up towards KSWF, and this could lead to MVFR/IFR conditions with low cigs, mainly after 9Z. Chance for TSRA Increases early Thu PM ahead of the trailing cold front, and maintaining PROB30 to highlight this potential thru 20-21Z Thu.

Winds settle to 10 kt or less tonight. S/SSW then increases through Thursday morning, with gusts 25-30 kt developing after 12Z. Isolated gusts to 35 kt Thu PM.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty with flight categories towards 06z and through Thursday morning. Conditions could remain VFR, with higher chance of lower flight categories for KJFK and KLGA.

Timing of TSRA Thu PM could be off by +/- 2 hours. If confidence increases for TSRA in subsequent TAF updates then PROB30 may get upgraded to TEMPO.

Isolated gusts 35 to 40 kt possible Thu PM.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: WSW winds become W with gusts 15 to 25 kt in the evening, gusts end at most terminals overnight.

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 20 kt.

Saturday: VFR. WNW-NW wind 10-15 gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday-Monday: MVFR or lower at times with rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions through tonight. Winds and seas both increase to above SCA thresholds late tonight into Thursday morning. A southerly flow will fairly quickly develop by 6AM with gusts increasing to a peak around 30-35 kt through the day on all waters with seas increasing to 6-8 feet on the ocean. While 35+ kt gusts will be possible, they should be infrequent enough to prevent the issuance of gales. Thunderstorms will also be possible early Thursday afternoon which could bring 35kt gusts or higher.

Winds shift to more W by THursday evening and fall below SCA thresholds on all waters. Residual high waves on the ocean will allow the SCA to continue there through at least the night and possibly into the day on Friday, especially for eastern zones. Sub- SCA conditions look likely on all waters by Friday night lingering through the weekend.

Low pressure may impact the waters on Monday, with SCA conditions possible.

Rip Currents:

For Thursday, the rip current risk is high with strong S winds and waves around 4-7 ft.

For Friday, the rip current risk is high with lingering higher swell and gusty more W winds. Confidence is not high in the forecast though as wind and wave forecast could be a little less with subsequent forecasts, thereby making for more of a moderate rip current risk.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.