Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Brook University, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:25PM Monday December 9, 2019 6:05 PM EST (23:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:02PMMoonset 5:11AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 420 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain until early morning, then chance of rain late. Patchy fog this evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening, then rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sat..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 420 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will approach tonight into Tuesday and will move across late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak low pressure develops along the front offshore slowing down its eastward progress Wednesday. Another low pressure trough approaches Wednesday before strong arctic high pressure builds over the waters Wednesday night through Thursday. The high moves off the northeast coast Thursday night. A low pressure system approaches from the southwest Friday and moves through the area Saturday and Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Brook University, NY
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location: 40.93, -73.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 092103 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 403 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach tonight into Tuesday and will move across late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak low pressure develops along the front offshore slowing down its eastward progress Wednesday. Another low pressure trough approaches Wednesday before strong arctic high pressure builds into the region Wednesday night through Thursday. The high moves off the northeast coast Thursday night. A low pressure system approaches from the southwest Friday and moves through the area Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure builds Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. The warm front that was north of the area will become weak and eventually dissipate. The region is in a larger warm sector of a low pressure system of which the parent low will be moving into Southeast Canada. The associated cold front will be approaching the region through tonight.

Aloft, the mid levels show nearly a steady height tendency with a strong shortwave pivoting into the Great Lakes.

Rain continues this evening before becoming more intermittent and lightening overnight into Tuesday morning. This evening, the rain could bring down some higher winds, but keeping gusts below 35 mph for the most part as inversion aloft limits mixing. Without any surface instability and elevated instability as diagnosed from forecast Showalter Indices showing slightly positive values, removed thunder from forecast. Rain this evening will be the relatively more intense timeframe, moderate to possibly heavy at times. The heavy rain could bring down a brief wind gust up to around 40 mph.

Temperatures will not drop too much tonight, making for minimal diurnal temperature trends. Forecast lows are from the mid 40s to lower 50s using a consensus of model guidance.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The short term will feature the rainfall ahead of and along the cold front Tuesday into Tuesday evening as well as the mixing with and changing to snow behind the cold front later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

For this timeframe, used mostly a consensus of raw model temperatures with some slight adjustments downward for Tuesday night and Wednesday when colder air will be advecting into the region on more of a northwest flow.

In the upper levels, a jet streak will be approaching and will move in with its right rear quad by Wednesday morning, before moving farther northeast. Mid level shortwave trough will be approaching Tuesday and then move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with the most positive vorticity advection staying north of the region. The most forcing for lift will be late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

At the surface, the cold front approaches Tuesday and moves across late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Rain continues through the day which could again be moderate at times. Precipitation lingers behind the cold front for Tuesday night into Wednesday and models have been pretty consistent showing potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow for much of the area, 3 to 4 inches across the interior, which is reflected in the current forecast. Initially, the changeover from rain to snow will be limited with accumulation especially if it is light as ground temperatures will be above freezing. The snow accumulation occurs Wednesday morning when much of the region is at freezing or below. Some slight rise in temperatures expected during the day, low to mid 30s.

While the amounts of snow forecast are 1 to 4 inches, the timing puts this during the Wednesday morning commute, making for potentially hazardous travel conditions due to slippery surfaces and reduced visibilities.

Weather becomes drier Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with a slow decrease in clouds as the shortwave trough starts to lift north of the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Wednesday night through Thursday night the guidance is in good agreement with arctic high pressure building over the region and then departing off the northeast coast. Well below normal temperatures are expected Wednesday night and Thursday. The upper flow becomes nearly zonal through Thursday night. Differences then develop with the next shortwaves impacting the area Friday into Saturday night. Split flow is expected to develop and the timing, and strength, of the northern and southern stream shortwaves differs. Regardless, the southern stream wave remains dominant, with warm advection increasing ahead of a developing warm front. The best chances at this time for snow and/or a rain snow mix will be across the interior Friday morning. Then timing of the warm up will determine the changeover to rain. Along the coast rain is expected. A lot of uncertainty remains with the strength of the northern stream shortwave and the interaction with the southern stream wave later Saturday into Sunday. The GFS is much farther to the north and deeper than the ECMWF with the northern stream.

High pressure and colder weather returns Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front over the Midwest will slowly approach the area through 18Z Tuesday.

Mainly IFR or lower through the TAF period. A few breaks to MVFR are possible through around 22Z. Rain continues to overspread the region through this evening. Conditions transition into spotty drizzle or light rain overnight into Tuesday, with another band of rain possible closer to the frontal boundary after 15Z.

There could be significant variations in visibility, especially through tonight. Fog and drizzle could result 1/2SM or less overnight, but it was too uncertain to include in the TAFs based on the strength of the expected winds.

Winds will increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt through at least 02Z. The potential exists for the strongest winds to remain east of the NYC airports, and the most recent amendments have slowed the onset of these stronger winds. Winds veer to the southwest with speeds slightly lighter on Tuesday.

LLWS at all terminals through tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Rest of Tuesday. Winds shift to the northwest behind the cold front. Rain transitions to snow from northwest to southeast. Wednesday. IFR or lower possible in snow, especially in the morning. Winds generally below 10 kt with direction variable at times. Thursday. VFR Friday. VFR becoming IFR overnight with rain or a wintry mix developing. LLWS possible late. Saturday. IFR with rain. LLWS possible.

MARINE. Gale warning in effect for all ocean zones through tonight. SCA remains in effect for non-ocean waters through tonight. For Tuesday, SCA conditions remain on the ocean and continue through Tuesday night. SCA remains on much of the ocean Wednesday before dropping below SCA mid to late Wednesday afternoon west of Moriches Inlet.

SCA in effect for all waters. Main push of stronger winds to the east today, and gusts in S-SW flow getting close but not quite to 35 kt except on the ocean E of Moriches Inlet this afternoon. Gale warning starts on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet this afternoon. Rest of ocean, gale warning starts tonight. Gales remain on ocean until Tuesday morning and SCA remains on non-ocean waters until Tuesday morning. Gales subside Tuesday with SCA remaining on the ocean. Tuesday expected to be below SCA on non-ocean waters.

Increasing, and gusty, northwest flow develops Wednesday night behind departing low pressure. Marginal SCA conditions are expected to develop on the ocean waters Wednesday night and continue into Thursday morning.

With high pressure moving across the waters Thursday and departing Friday sub advisory conditions are expected. Then east to southeast winds will increase ahead of the next low pressure system moving in from the southwest Friday night. Once again, marginal SCA wind gusts are expected on the ocean waters Friday night through most of Saturday, while ocean seas will build significantly Friday night into Saturday.

HYDROLOGY. Long duration rainfall event continues through Tuesday evening before it becomes more snowfall late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Total liquid equivalent remaining is between 1 to 2 inches.

Nuisance/poor drainage flooding may occur tonight when the heaviest rain falls but otherwise no other flooding is expected.

The next significant rain of up to an inch is expected Friday night through Saturday. Timing and rainfall amounts may change, so hydrologic impacts are uncertain at this time.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JM/MET NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . MARINE . JM/MET HYDROLOGY . JM/MET EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 16 mi65 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 46°F 38°F46°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi71 min 48°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi75 min S 3.9 G 7.8 49°F 49°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi71 min S 7 G 8
44022 - Execution Rocks 31 mi50 min S 7.8 G 9.7 47°F 32°F47°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 34 mi71 min 1011.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi75 min SSW 12 G 16 52°F 50°F11 ft1012.7 hPa (-2.4)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 49 mi35 min S 12 G 16 51°F 1011.5 hPa50°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 49 mi77 min 51°F 46°F1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi69 minS 71.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist50°F50°F100%1012.3 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi69 minS 104.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F50°F93%1012.6 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT17 mi73 minS 74.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F50°F96%1011.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY20 mi72 minS 83.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F48°F92%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S6S5SW4SW7CalmS4SW3SW5CalmCalmN4CalmE3S11
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1 day agoW7NW5NW6N5NE3N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5S7S9S9S9S6S6
2 days agoSW12W14
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Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:48 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:10 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM EST     6.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:23 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:21 PM EST     5.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.60.80.51.12.33.75.16.16.564.93.52.10.90.20.31.22.53.95.15.85.64.8

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:56 AM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:10 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:51 AM EST     6.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:31 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:18 PM EST     5.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.81.70.80.512.23.656.16.45.94.83.52.110.30.31.12.43.855.75.64.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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