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FXUS61 KCTP 282252 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 552 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A long wave trough will move quickly to our west tonight. A quiet period of weather will follow for Wednesday and Thursday.
Daytime high temperatures will warm 15 to 20 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday. The next storm system moves out of the Southern Plains states and spreads rain across much of Central PA late Thursday night through Friday. Some snowflakes may mix in with the rain across the northern mountains.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Cellular SHSN dominating the radar with the heating keeping what would be bands well broken up at 19Z. The sun/heating has also brought road temps up above freezing, so flash freezing is possible with any heavier squalls. At this point, the squalls are much weaker than earlier in the day thanks to the poorer organization and mixing of dry air, too. Dewpoints still in the mid and lower teens. The gusty wind will still factor into the lowered visbys possible, too. However, it seems like the time for the worst/best snow squalls has passed.

As the evening nears, the radar returns should begin to diminish, and well before midnight the majority of the area should be out of any worry for additional accumulations. The nrn tier where the warning and advy still run will continue to have SHSN into the middle of the night. The end timing of 06Z still looks fine as little additional accums should occur after then.
Moisture flowing overhead tonight could start to show up aloft as clouds over the NW and in the lee of the Alleghenies as the left-exit region of a jet streak moves in from the west. The wind should become lighter (under 10kts) through the night as they back to the SW in the low cloud layer. That will take those lower clouds and any remaining flurries into wrn NY. Temps look like they'll fall about 10F in the N and 15F in the S.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
It will be just a tad milder than Tues in the SW on Wed, but temps will dip a tad in the E. The high/mid cloud cover that will have developed overhead on the nose/left-exit region of the jet streak will increase and last for all the day. They may even lower enough to bear some flurries, but we'll not mention them at this point since they may not even reach the ground. The NW corner of the state has the best chc (30pct) to have a dusting as a Clipper system passes well to the north, but drags a warm front and it's associated lift through. The limited moisture in the Clipper and dry low levels should make that the worst of the effects on Central PA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Highs Thursday through Sunday in the 40s will be near to slightly above average for this time of year. The next weather system arrives for late Thursday night into Friday as a broad area of moisture ahead of a an approaching cold front (and southern stream low heading at us from the Southern Plains States) tracks into the eastern half of the country.

Latest Operational and Ensemble model guidance indicates that moisture will be relatively inconsequential, ranging from around half an inch across the northwest to less than a tenth of an inch across much of southeast PA. Temperature profiles indicate that rain will be the dominant precipitation type, but a few wet flakes could mix in across the north.

The cold air mass will be shallow and rather fleeting in the wake of this system as the associated sfc high lifts NE into nrn New England late this weekend as mid/upper level heights rise around 60 meters and the flow aloft remains from the WSW to SW.

Although temps should warm aloft by 5-7 deg C Sunday into Monday morning, low-level temp profiles suggest that a relatively brief period of freezing or frozen precip is possible Sunday night/early Monday before changing to a few periods of rain/drizzle on Monday as the thicker, seeder-feeder layered cloud deck races away to the NE.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Scattered snow showers will lose their luster this evening thanks to the loss of daytime heating. As such, visibility restrictions should be few and far between with little more than a flurry at any airfield (except BFD). The lake effect snow machine will continue across northwest Pennsylvania overnight as mean winds shift from westerly to southwesterly. This will direct the clouds and snow showers toward western New York as opposed to Central PA and help conditions improve areawide this evening.

MVFR ceilings will persist at BFD overnight and there is a low, but non-zero chance of a few brief IFR visibility restrictions with moderate snow. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail as westerly winds continue to gust but gradually taper off through Wednesday morning. A Clipper system will pass well to the north of the state on Wednesday and will bring widespread cloud cover through the afternoon. Expect barely a flurry tomorrow at BFD and perhaps IPT if the clouds can get thick enough. The low cloud deck that moves into the NW on Wednesday may bring MVFR ceilings (40% chance at BFD and 10% chance at JST, UNV) later in the afternoon. Winds will be 300-330 at 10 to 15kts by Wednesday afternoon with gusts of 15 to 25 kts.

Outlook...

Thu...Slight chance of AM low cigs NW Mtns.

Fri...Low cigs/rain likely, mainly PM.

Sat...Lingering low cigs possible, mainly AM.

Sun...Light rain/restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ005- 006.

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Market Street Bridge
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Tue -- 01:23 AM EST     5.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:39 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:45 PM EST     6.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:22 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
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Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

Norwood City
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Tue -- 01:10 AM EST     5.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:13 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:32 PM EST     6.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:56 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
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Norwood City, Darby Creek, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

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