Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Sea, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly each afternoon.

3) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to below normal Sunday night through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A large upper level ridge over the East Coast and Western Atlantic is providing for surface temperatures that are and will continue to be well above normal through Friday. High pressure to the southeast is allowing for a generally SW flow advecting in a warmer airmass that sits over the area this week.

Given the generally ample sunshine expected today through Thursday, temperatures quickly rise each morning with overall highs in the 80s expected. Some locations in and around NE NJ and perhaps the NYC metro may approach 90 degrees each afternoon into Thursday. Highs closer to the coast will be a bit cooler, generally in the 70s, but uncertainty in temperatures along the coast remains a bit higher than normal as temperatures may exceed current forecast highs depending on subtle shifts in wind direction and speed due to a cold ocean.

Temperatures generally begin to moderate a bit by Friday given more cloud cover with highs in the 70s and then even moreso into the weekend with highs in the 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2
A stationary front well north of the area will generally the focus of several weak mid-level disturbances to push east over the next several days. This should be the main forcing mechanism for any shower and thunderstorm development. Each day, any showers or thunderstorms that develop to the north and west may approach the area into the later afternoon and evening, though uncertainty as to the coverage remains fairly high, despite a fair amount of instability for inland areas. The main threats for any thunderstorms are heavy rainfall but strong to damaging wind gusts remain possible as well, mainly today and Wednesday.

As the front sags a bit further south late Thursday into Friday, more showery activity is expected rather than thunderstorms, though an embedded storm can't be ruled out.

KEY MESSAGE 3
A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to several degrees below normal Sunday night through Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Offshore high pressure will remain south of the terminals through the TAF period. Weak low pressure will move across upstate New York and New England late this afternoon into this evening, bringing a front closer to the area.

Mainly VFR through this evening. A late afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The best chances for thunder will be at KSWF, with just a shower at KHPN, the NYC terminals and possibly KBDR. Will leave out of the KISP and KGON TAF where confidence is low. Can not rule out a brief period of MVFR vsbys early Wednesday morning as some patchy fog may develop. Another round of showers/thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, once again with the best chances north of NYC.

South winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. Winds diminish to 10kt or less with more of a SW-W flow. Some of the terminals may even see wind go light and variable. Winds become S once again on Wednesday 10-15kt in the afternoon. Some gusts to near 20kt will also be possible.

LLWS possible at KGON tonight, with WSW flow 40 kt at FL020.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of a shower reaching the NYC terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday through Friday: Mainly VFR, with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Easterly winds around 10kt.

Sunday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms, with MVFR conditions possible. S-SW winds 5-15kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small craft advisories that were in effect have been cancelled as wave heights have fallen below 5 feet. There may an occasional gust near 25 kt or a wave height near 5 feet into this evening but it will be short lived. Otherwise sub-SCA conditions expected on all the waters through Sunday.

With the passage of a strong cold front Sunday, and high pressure building in from the west, westerly winds and gusts increase Sunday night, with SCA conditions developing on the ocean waters out to 20 nm by late Sunday night, and continuing into Monday. During Monday west to northwest gusts may reach advisory levels across the non ocean waters.

CLIMATE
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024

Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022

Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023

Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.