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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1043 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1043 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure will remain near the region through the middle of this week. High pressure moves north and east of the region Wednesday night through Thursday. The high will give way to a frontal system Friday into Saturday night, with a cold front passage late Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure builds to the south Sunday and Monday.

FXUS61 KOKX 030251 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1051 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain near the region through mid week.
High pressure moves north and east of the region Wednesday night through Thursday. The high will give way to a frontal system Friday into Saturday night, with a cold front passage late Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure builds to the south Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Updated for current conditions and short term trends. Slight adjustments with local temps and dew points for the most part over the next several hours, otherwise fx remains on track.
Previous discussion follows.

The region will remain on the eastern side of an upper level ridge which will not exhibit much changes in geopotential height. At the surface, the center of high pressure will get within closer proximity to the region. The pressure gradient will be weak allowing for winds to diminish. Subsidence from the ridging will lead to mainly clear sky conditions.

With HRRR overestimating the amount of smoke in the area, the forecast does not have any mention of haze through tonight.

Blended in some BC MOS guidance with the cooler MET guidance overnight to better account for local variance in temps based on radiational type set up. Usually like to take the coolest of MOS with high pressure moving overhead, as this sets up optimal radiational cooling conditions with clear sky conditions and calm winds. The MET guidance conveys a more vast range of lows to better depict the range of temperatures from mid to upper 40s in Pine Barrens of LI and interior valleys to mainly lower 60s within the NYC Metro.

Also, expecting temperatures to fall right to the dewpoint in quite a few locations late tonight into early Tuesday morning, allowing for low level saturation. Patchy radiational fog is expected, especially in outlying and river valley locations.
While NAM BUFKIT sounding profiles seems to be over-forecasting the amount of moisture, there are hints of this fog development as well within the RAP BUFKIT sounding profiles.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The upper level ridge continues to move in with its axis approaching closer for Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will remain near but become centered more to the south of the region. Models indicate some daytime trough development within the forecast region. Models also convey 850mb temperatures increasing a few degrees with values mainly between 16 and 18 degrees C.

Went on the higher side of forecast guidance, and chose the ECS as well as MAV and MET guidance with some minor adjustments upward. Surface westerly flow component will also allow for relatively higher temperatures along the coast and Twin Forks.
Upper 70s to lower 80s is the range of forecast highs.

The westerly flow and ridging will allow for mostly sunny conditions overall for Tuesday with any fog in the morning burning off relatively quickly.

For Tuesday night, lows are forecast to be several degrees warmer than lows the previous night. Lows forecast range from the lower 50s to upper 60s. Dewpoints trending a few degrees higher for Tuesday night as well. Forecast again has patchy radiational fog as temperatures reach near the dewpoint especially for interior and outlying locations.

For Wednesday, surface high pressure slides just east of the area late in the day, allowing for more southerly winds to develop. Winds are forecast to remain light. High temperatures expected to be pretty similar to the previous day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A high amplitude ridge will be moving into the western North Atlantic Ocean Wednesday night as the surface high moves east of the New England coast and Canadian Maritimes. Heights begin to lower after 18Z Thursday as a deep trough moves through the central US. An upper low closes off late Friday as the upper trough become slightly negative. This will slow the eastward progression of a cold front, which is expected late Saturday into Saturday night. A warm, and increasingly humid, airmass will remain in place Thursday and Friday, with temperatures averaging around 5 degrees above normal levels. Precipitable water values increase steadily late Thursday into Friday night, reaching a peak around 1.5 inches. There remains a chance that a widespread one inch rainfall occurs late Friday into Saturday night. The closed upper low may linger across southeastern Canada into the northeast, with the surface low to the northeast of the region, into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR as high pressure settles over the area during the TAF period.
Some outlying terminals may have a period of patchy fog with possible MVFR visibilities after 6z, but confidence of MVFR fog occurrence remains low to include in TAFs at this time.

Light and variable winds overnight. By the late morning the winds become W to NW with speeds remaining under 10 kt. Sea breeze development takes place in the afternoon for coastal terminals from 18 to 21z, as the winds become more SW to S.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Cannot completely rule out some patchy fog at KJFK terminal towards the start of the morning push, but confidence remains too low to include in the TAF at this time. Timing of potential wind shift due to coastal sea breezes may be off by a couple of hours on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night through Thursday night...VFR.

Friday...MVFR or lower conds possible with an increasing chance of light showers.

Saturday...Mainly MVFR or lower with showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions on the waters are expected to remain below SCA thresholds through Wednesday with high pressure remaining in control. The pressure gradient will remain relatively weak.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters Wednesday night through Friday. With an increasing southeasterly flow ahead of a cold front during Friday ocean seas build to around 5 feet by Friday night. Winds and gusts increase with the cold front Saturday into Saturday night, and ocean gusts may reach 25 kt behind the front Saturday night. Ocean seas will build Saturday into Saturday night as long period swells from distant Tropical Storm Philippe move into the waters. Refer to the National Hurricane Center, www.nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts on Tropical Storm Philippe.

HYDROLOGY
Dry conditions are expected through Thursday with no hydrologic problems expected.

At this time, no significant hydrologic impacts are expected with rainfall Friday into Saturday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides are slowly lowering, and with light and variable winds tonight, becoming light westerly Tuesday, significant tidal departures are not expected, with all areas falling below the minor coastal flood benchmarks for the high tide cycles Tuesday morning into the afternoon.

EQUIPMENT
The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge remains out of service for unrepresentative data (water levels about 3 ft too high). The gauge is being looked into by our partners at the USGS.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Alpine
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Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:07 PM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alpine, New Jersey, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

George Washington Bridge (Hudson River)
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Mon -- 02:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:34 AM EDT     -2.49 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:30 AM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:45 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:08 PM EDT     -2.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

George Washington Bridge (Hudson River), New York Current, knots

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