Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Sinai, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Marine layer with abundant cloud coverage persists over most of the area. There has been some sunshine mainly across SE CT but expect clouds to fill in there tonight. Meanwhile a few showers associated with a weak shortwave trough approaching from the west are affecting areas west of NYC. Forecast brings these showers into areas E of NYC mainly overnight but 18Z HRRR/RAP did indicate this occurring sooner rather than later (this evening). Some patchy fog is also possible tonight, with temps gradually falling to the lower 60s throughout.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The high will weaken further on Tue, with the flow becoming SE in the afternoon. Additional shortwave energy approaches aloft.
With plenty of moisture still around this will allow for shower activity, especially north and west of NYC. Temp s should be a little milder than recent days, reaching the mid 70s in NE NJ and the lower 70s most elsewhere.

As the warm front begins to approach, chances for showers and possibly a tstm (via elevated instability) should continue Tue night. Fog also more likely as SE flow turns S ahead of the front. Low temps will be in the lower/mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key points:

* Very warm and humid Thursday with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night.

* Potential for high heat and humidity late in the weekend into early next week.

Global models are in good agreement and forecast largely followed NBM during this period.

Amplifying upper trough across the Midwest and Mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will send a warm front north of the area early in the day. However, the warm sector looks to be active with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and evening. PW values will increase to around 2 inches, which is close to a daily max for KOKX upper air soundings. Thus, any convection will likely be efficient at producing heavy rainfall. However, storm motion will be about 30 kt with the boundary to the north. Thus, no training issues at this time and large scale lift is rather weak. Instability is marginal to moderate, highest across the interior. Any flooding issues will likely be of the minor nuisance variety.

Thursday gets quite a bit more interesting with the cold front moving into the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
Moderate to high instability and a strengthening vertical wind profile suggest the potential for strong to severe bowing line segments. SPC Day 4 and CSU-MLP have the area in greater than 15% for severe weather with the main threat being damaging winds. Limiting factors could be too much dry air in the low- levels, lowering MLCAPE values. However, it is a bit early to be too specific with details, but nevertheless something to keep a watch on. In addition, temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal with dew points well into the 60s to around 70. NBM box and whisker plots show deterministic NBM at or below the 25th percentile. Thus, there is the potential for higher temps.
Deterministic NBM similar to long rage GFS and ECMWF MOS values.

Temperatures fall off some Friday into Saturday but still several degrees above normal. Also have to watch out for some ridge rollers Saturday night into Sunday as heights build and a warm front over the Great Lakes potentially trigger MCS development. What is more certain, heights build Sunday into Monday, as a high amplitude ridge takes takes control east of the Mississippi River Valley. This lines up with start of the summer and will easily be the warmest airmass of the season.
Heat indices will be on the rise Sunday into Monday, with 95 to 100 plus from NYC and points north and west. Guidance points to even warmer conditions on Tuesday. Thus, there is the potential for heat headlines. NBM box and whisker plots once again showing NBM deterministic values at or below the 25ht percentile.
Values closer to the 50th support ambient temperatures around 100 in some locations. Dew points at this time are forecast to be in the upper 60s to around 70.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weak ridge of high pressure remains across the terminals and a stationary front will remain off to the south with waves of low pressure along it. The front begins to move north as a warm front during Tuesday.

Mainly MVFR for this afternoon, with a few pockets of low end VFR for a few northeastern terminals for the next few hours, with pockets of IFR prevailing at times for the more SW terminals. There will be occasional pockets of light rain or drizzle into early this evening for some terminals. Low confidence forecast continues through this evening and tonight with regard to the timing of specific flight categories.
Confidence increases for widespread IFR, and LIFR for the city and coastal terminals overnight. Very little to no improvement is anticipated during Tuesday morning.

Winds will generally be E to NE 7-13kt late this afternoon, with a few gusts possible across eastern most coastal terminals.
The winds overall will be lighter tonight, generally closer to 5 kt or slightly less late tonight into Tuesday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence with timing and flight categories through this evening. Amendments likely for flight category changes through Tuesday AM.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday afternoon: Mainly IFR. A chance of showers late, mainly at night.

Wednesday: Chance of IFR early, otherwise VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late with MVFR.

Thursday: VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms with MVFR.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Seas and wind gusts in E flow are likely just shy of SCA criteria attm on the outermost coastal ocean waters W of Fire Island Inlet. With a downward trend expected tonight and minimal/occasional coverage of 5-ft seas at most, elected not to issue SCA.

Ocean seas E of Moriches Inlet may briefly reach SCA levels Thu evening as SW winds ahead of a cold front increase.

HYDROLOGY
Some downpours possible with heavier showers and possible tstms late Tue night, mainly well inland NW of NYC.

Locally heavy downpours are also possible with any thunderstorms Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon into the evening.
However, the risk of flooding will be mitigated by the speed of any cells and lack of overall cell training.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Rip current risk remains at moderate for today. The Tuesday forecast will be updated within the hour. Check for update shortly.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.