Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belle Terre, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. High rip current risk for today.

2. Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy downpour and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday into the weekend.

3. Very warm and very humid for Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Latest RCMOS supports the previously fcst high rip current risk for today given residual 4-5 ft SSE swell with periods of 7-8 sec.

At least a moderate risk is likely for Wed as SSE swells continue to subside to 3-4 ft, but may remain high at the eastern Suffolk beaches with the higher swells out east and ebb tide from late morning into early afternoon.

A high risk may also be possible late day Thu at the NYC, Nassau, and western Suffolk beaches as SSW flow increases to near 20 kt with wind waves building to 4 ft.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Scattered afternoon shower/thunderstorm threat returns on Wed and continues through the weekend as region lies on NW edge of Bermuda ridging. This will also bring a very warm and very humid air mass into the region Thu thru the weekend with deep SW flow and H8 temps rising to 18-20C.

Forcing will be from weak convectively enhanced vorts rounding the upper ridge Wed and Thu, and then approaching weak northern stream shortwaves Fri into the weekend. Focus on Wednesday will be a dissipating frontal boundary working through the area, with possible weak wave development, with lee/pre-frontal troughing the focus through the weekend.

This setup will present an isolated severe and flash flood threat each aft/early eve. HRRR attm shows only 20-30% chance of 1 inch of rain in 3 hr across parts of NE NJ Wed afternoon, but as has been the case with previous events, HRRR probabilities for heavy rainfall amts in a short time frame are likely to increase as we get closer to the actual time frames of occurrence.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Temps should rise to at least to the upper 80s to around 90 for NE NJ/NYC metro and the interior, with dewpoints in the mid 70s, from Thu through Mon. GFS MOS guidance shows lower dewpoints but higher temperatures compared to NBM. Both bring heat index values to 95-100 on Thu, 95-104 Fri, and continuing above 95 in urban/coastal areas and across the interior river valleys from Sat-Mon. This should warrant heat advisory issuances as outlined.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure passes over the area today.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Low chance of MVFR/IFR, mainly for outlying terminals, late tonight into Wednesday morning in fog or low stratus.

Light N/NE winds this morning eventually turn SE by the afternoon with speeds generally less than 10kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD not expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday through Saturday: MVFR or lower flight cat at times in showers/tstms, highest chance for western terminals. Winds mainly S-SW.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters out 20 nm, and lowers from west to east this morning into early afternoon per NWPS forecast of gradually subsiding seas.

Could see a period of winds/seas approaching 25 kt and 5 ft on the ocean waters W of Moriches Inlet from late day into the evening on Thu.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ353.