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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 910 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming w, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and drizzle late this evening. Areas of fog late this evening, then patchy fog. Patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and early morning.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain and snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 910 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Low pressure lifts north tonight as weak high pressure builds in through Tuesday, eventually giving way to an offshore low pressure system that develops on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday and Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into the start of the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 040222 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 922 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure lifts north tonight as weak high pressure builds in through Tuesday, eventually giving way to an offshore low pressure system that develops on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday and Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into the start of the weekend. A strong frontal system approaches for next Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Parent low pressure continues to lift across upstate NY with secondary low pressure southeast of Long Island. A frontal boundary will move through the region overnight. Ahead of the boundary, a few showers are possible. Otherwise, areas of light rain, drizzle, and fog continue. The flow will turn westerly behind the front which help bring in improving conditions, especially towards midnight from NYC metro on west. Drier low level air will improve visibilities and bring an end to any lingering light rain or drizzle. It will take a few more hours further east for the improving conditions to be realized. Lows will be in the low to middle 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Weak high pressure tries to build into the area from the south but retreating low pressure is slow to move out. The area remains in the vicinity of an upper level trough which will likely continue to bring cloudy skies, despite some clearing Monday morning. While skies are expected to become overcast Monday afternoon, a lack of moisture and low level forcing will keep the area dry. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, about average for this time of year.

A northwest wind advects drier and cooler air into the area Monday night and into early Tuesday morning allowing for skies to generally clear through the night. Lows will be in the low to middle 30s Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The NYC metro may remain near 40.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The jet stream going into midweek will be dipping into the Southeast US. The jet stream pattern shifts thereafter with more NW flow jet level orientation Thursday with ridging going into Friday. The ridging continues into Saturday before a more sharp trough and associated jet streak approach for next Sunday.

A colder airmass will be in place Tuesday through Thursday. The airmass then moderates and eventually gets to above normal temperatures to close out the week.

At the surface, the pressure gradient will increase towards midweek.
Low pressure develops well offshore out in the Atlantic with high pressure from SE Canada through the Great Lakes and near the Mississippi River Valley.

Models indicate a weak disturbance with some associated moisture developing in the coastal New England area early Wednesday through Wednesday evening. In the mid levels, a trough moves across with associated positive vorticity advection. This may bring some rain and/or snow showers to parts of Southeast Connecticut and Long Island. POPs are low, near 30 percent or less with much of these aforementioned sections in slight chance. Timing of precipitation will determine any localized light accumulations but with relatively higher POPs situated towards Southeast Suffolk on the South Fork, not expecting any snow accumulations with temperatures too warm. The snow showers could materialize due to wet bulb cooling.

For Thursday through Thursday night, the high pressure area to the west moves in and weakens across the region. The high pressure area eventually moves east of the area and out into the Atlantic Friday into Friday night.

Offshore high pressure Saturday will be followed by a strong frontal system approaching for next Sunday. GFS very progressive with system while ECMWF develops a more mature low west of the region.

Dry conditions expected Thursday through Saturday with a growing chance of rain for the latter half of next weekend. With models indicating more of a frontal system moving across progressively or deepening west of the area, precip type favors plain rain.

Temperatures overall will be below normal Tuesday through Thursday, near normal Friday and then getting more above normal Friday night into next weekend.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Once low pressure slowly lifts to the northeast tonight as a weaker low moves offshore. Low pressure lingers over New England on Monday.

Mainly IFR conditions will begin improving to MVFR towards 04-06z from NYC terminals on west. Further east, IFR likely continues until 07-9z with improvements thereafter. Lingering light rain will end from west to east through 06z. VFR conditions are expected to return before sunrise Monday.
VFR then prevails through Monday evening.

Light NNW-NE winds briefly become light and/or variable for a brief period before shifting to the west after 05/06z. Wind speeds will increase to 5-10 kt through day break, then 10-15 kt on Monday. Gusts 17-20 kt are possible in the afternoon.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of improving conditions may be off by 1-2 hours.

Wind shift to the W may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: W-WNW gusts 15-20 kt possible early eve. VFR.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N-NW winds G15-20kt afternoon into night near the coast.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory continues for the ocean zones through Monday afternoon. Winds may drop off here for a bit initially, but then come back up to 25-30 kt gusts late tonight and into Monday morning. Additionally, waves heights will be at or just above 5 feet. Winds and waves gradually subside from east to west on Monday which may allow for the SCA to be dropped accordingly. Widespread SCA thresholds should largely be missed with an occasional gust to 25kt not out of the question for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Any lingering near-SCA gusts are forecast to lower to below SCA thresholds Tuesday afternoon. Then sub-SCA for all waters for Tuesday night. Non-ocean waters stay below SCA for Wednesday and Wednesday night but ocean is forecast to have some SCA level gusts near 25 kt. Mainly below SCA conditions forecast for all waters Thursday through Friday. SCA conditions become more probable for ocean waters Friday night.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ355.

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Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows)
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Sun -- 03:07 AM EST     6.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:20 AM EST     1.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:21 PM EST     6.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:49 PM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows), Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Stony Brook
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Sun -- 03:13 AM EST     5.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:26 AM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:27 PM EST     5.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:55 PM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

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