Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Byram, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled.

Airmass has been worked over by several rounds of convection today, mainly impacting the NYC/NJ metro. Primarily stratified rain on the backside of the convection which is expected to end from west to east from 10 pm to midnight.

The cold front passes east of the area late tonight/early Friday morning. Dew points should decrease a bit, but it will still be muggy overnight. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s. No fog is expected as the SW flow becomes W overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upper trough axis swings across New England Friday morning leaving behind a NW flow aloft. Heights are progged to rise a bit through the afternoon. There will also likely be some weak shortwaves in the flow. Surface high pressure builds in from the south and west. A weak surface trough may push through late in the day. Think most of the area will remain dry with a modest westerly flow. The aforementioned shortwaves could develop an isolated shower across Orange County with any organized activity remaining off to our NW. High temperatures will not be as hot as observed on Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 80s. These readings are still a few degrees above normal for the first day of summer. Heat indices will be close to actual air temperatures due dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s. It is possible dew points mix out a bit more than indicated given the predominately westerly flow.

A similar flow pattern remains Friday night into Saturday with height rises continuing across the northeast as deep ridging builds towards the area. There may still be some weak shortwaves that traverse around the periphery of the building ridge, which could move nearby or just north of the area. Have mainly left the forecast dry Friday night through Saturday. Temperatures begin to trend upward on Saturday with highs int he middle to upper 80s, with around 90 across portions of NE NJ. Heat indices may end up a few degrees above the actual air temperatures as dew points start to rise compared to Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Messages...

*Increasing confidence in hot and humid conditions Sunday into early next week*

Building heights late this weekend as strong ridging shifts overhead and amplifies into early next week, setting up an early season heat spell across the region.

Global guidance still suggestive of a shortwave attempting to ride over the developing ridge Saturday night and into early Sunday, but less agreement on placement of this feature, so lower confidence in any precipitation potential during this time. Regardless, a true summertime hot and humid regime looks to develop early next week as higher heights and thicknesses build across the region. The warm up is expected to begin to build by late Sunday, especially for western and southwestern most areas, likely peaking Monday and Tuesday.
National blended guidance yields afternoon air temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for most Sunday, with mid 90s possible in the urban NJ corridor. Highs on Mon/Tue may approach or exceed triple digits into NE NJ, with mid 90s possible elsewhere away from the coast. Factoring in the humidity, dew pts progged into the 60s, and heat indices could exceed 100F at times. With these values, heat headlines may be needed for at least portions of the area.

By mid to late next week, should the ridge break down enough, the chance of diurnally driven convection would increase and could introduce some chance of late day and early evening showers and t- storms.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front moves across later tonight. Western Atlantic high pressure then builds late tonight into Friday.

Severe thunderstorms watch has been cancelled. Much of the lingering rain is non-convective and should end from west to east by around midnight.

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period except for brief MVFR with any rain this evening.

Winds are S-SW near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt through this evening and then winds become more westerly late tonight without much change in speed. Still potential for near 20 kt gusts overnight. Winds pick up from the west Friday near 15-20 kt with gusts near 25 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR is possible in lingering rain this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts near 20-25 kt. Gusts subside at night.

Saturday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt for Sunday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Strong to severe thunderstorms are no longer expected tonight as some lingering showers will move east across the waters through around midnight.

Near shore gusts could reach 25 kt into this evening with an SCA remaining in effect. Ocean seas will also build to around 5 ft on the ocean. SCA west of Fire Island Inlet in effect until 6 am. to the east into Friday as seas slowly diminish below 5 ft.
Wind gusts on Friday are marginal and could come close to 25 kt. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Friday night into Saturday and continue below criteria through early next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The rip current risk on Friday is moderate with lingering 4-5 ft seas on a 7s wave period. The risk may end up increasing to high for the Suffolk beaches if seas are slightly higher than currently expected.

Saturday looks more marginal at this time with a dimishing swell.



OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007- 009>011.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.