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LEZ144 Expires:202312050915;;916890 Fzus51 Kcle 050227 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 927 pm est Mon dec 4 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-050915- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 927 pm est Mon dec 4 2023
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of snow showers with a slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 051504 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1004 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system and cold front will move through the region today. High pressure will build behind the system for Wednesday into Thursday. A potent low pressure system will target the region for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
9:50 AM Update...
Increased PoPs in the near term as confidence continues to increase in light areal precipitation. Otherwise, overall forecast for today and tonight remains relatively unchanged. Did include a slight chance of rain showers for tomorrow afternoon in Northwest Ohio as some hi-res guidance has been showing it in the 12Z hi-res model guidance.

Previous Discussion...
For the first few hours this morning, the area will be in a relative lull of weather activity with just widespread overcast conditions. However, a shortwave trough will continue east into the region and support a weak low pressure through the Ohio Valley today and tonight. The front edge of the precipitation shield is currently in Illinois and moving into Indiana and this timing would allow for precipitation to enter during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The initial precipitation type should be snow for much of the area as the environment is marginally supportive. However, near surface temperatures will be above freezing and should increase a degree or two with the advancing system and the precipitation type should transition to rain for much of the area. Snow may hang on in NW PA and far NE OH, where the temperature profile is colder just above the surface (e.g.: -7C at 850 mb vs. -4C at 850 mb in central OH)
and higher elevations may hang on to cooler temperatures.
Overall, precipitation will be light and total QPF is about a tenth for the day across the area and any snow will not accumulate.

The main system will depart to the east tonight into Wednesday with a cold front moving through the region. Cold air advection over Lake Erie will allow for a marginal lake effect setup for NE OH/NW PA. There will not be an abundance of moisture and lift within the DGZ to promote large snow growth but there is enough among the temperature profile, moisture, modest instability off the lake, and low level lift to get some persistent light lake effect snow showers across NE OH/NW PA. Accumulations will be negligible outside the highest hills of NE OH/NW PA where a half inch to inch is possible. There is a bit of a signal for perhaps a touch higher in far eastern Erie County PA, but hard to get excited with the short northwest fetch in a marginal environment. Dry air will enter on Wednesday and slowly shut off the light snow. Temperatures will remain in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Mostly quiet weather is expected through the short term period with the exception of a weak mid-level disturbance which will quickly move east across the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. A quick shot of light rain and/or snow showers will accompany the disturbance with the highest chances found across far NE OH and NW PA. Strong warm air advection will arrive in the wake of this system as an upper-level ridge builds across the Central CONUS. This ridge will gradually move towards the Eastern CONUS through Friday night.

Above-average temperatures are expected for the short term period with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Thursday increasing into the low to mid-50s by Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An active long term period is in store across the region as a deep upper-level trough traverses east across the CONUS. Confidence is increasing for widespread rain across the area late Saturday into Sunday, in addition to the potential for strong wind gusts behind a cold front Sunday night into Monday.

There continues to be a sign for a strong storm system to impact the region through the weekend as a deep upper-level trough moves east across CONUS, strengthening and becoming negatively-tilted as it reaches the Eastern CONUS on Sunday. At the surface, a low pressure system will quickly strengthen as it moves northeastward from the ArkLaTex region on Saturday and into the Great Lakes by Sunday.
Initially, precipitation is expected to be rain as a strong low- level jet delivers warm and moist air northwards into the area. This low will extend a cold front east across the area by late Sunday, ushering in a much colder air mass into the region by Monday and transitioning precipitation to snow. Confidence remains low on the extent and intensity of any lake-effect snow behind this system as winds waver from west to southwest. However, recent ensemble guidance suggests that the potential for strong wind gusts >40 mph late Sunday into Monday is increasing and will be something to monitor over the next several days.

Above-average temperatures are expected for the weekend with highs in the mid-50s on Saturday and upper 40s on Sunday, Behind the cold front on Monday, below-average temperatures will return with highs struggling to reach the 40-degree mark.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
MVFR and low VFR conditions continue across the region this morning ahead of a low pressure system that will bring a mix of rain and snow to the area today and tonight. Any VFR holdouts should fall to MVFR in the next hour or two and the main precipitation will quickly follow suit during the late morning and early afternoon. Have conditions falling further to IFR this afternoon once the core of the system makes it into the region.
The system will move east tonight and the widespread precipitation will end, but the low ceilings will remain.
Precipitation will transition to a lake effect focused process and have rain/snow mentioned longer at the NE OH/NW PA TAF sites. Conditions should start recovering toward MVFR by the end of the period. Winds ahead of the low today will be southerly to westerly and winds will shift to north to northeast behind the low tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periods of rain and/or snow Wednesday night and Thursday. Widespread rain with non-VFR possible Saturday.

MARINE
A fairly quiet marine period is in store into the weekend with no headlines anticipated.

North to northwest winds may briefly reach 15 knots behind a weak cold front late tonight into early Wednesday, but not expecting Small Craft criteria to be met. Otherwise, offshore, south to southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist into Saturday. Can't rule out brief instances of offshore winds reaching 25 knots, especially Thursday night into early Friday morning.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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