Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Manchester, IN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A backdoor front, which has had some uncertainty in previous model runs around how far it gets into the area, is being modeled as slowly pushing into the area tonight influencing Thursday's temperatures and dew points to the cooler and drier side of the scale. Today's dew points are being modeled as surpassing 70 degrees and achieving the highest values of this time: reaching 75 degrees.
At the same time, today's 850 mb temperatures reach at least 20C to potentially as high as 23C (which can lead to 95F high temps on a day with maximum mixing) on the ECMWF. For Thursday, drier dew points in the 60s to potentially more like upper 50s work in as 850 mb temps become more like 19 to 20C. Because the ridge center works more southeastward into the southeastern US and Mid Atlantic area, a shortwave looks to wrap around the western edge of the ridge center and gets into the southwestern portion of the area potentially by the end of the day Thursday, which could affect the area most conducive to higher heat indices (that combo of temps and dew points). Even still, given continued heat, thought it prudent to issue an advisory for areas most possible to reach 100 degrees on Thursday, our southern two tiers of counties in IN. It also possible that Saturday, out in front of a cold front, ends up with a heat advisory, but less certainty exists with the potential for showers and storms. Given how dry we've been and how warm the low to mid levels are, perhaps a cap will exist to hold off convection.

The shortwave mentioned for Thursday continues to move through from west to south for Friday as a trough moves north to southeast in the Northeast CONUS. This makes the area more conducive at least for afternoon pop convection. Enough instability appears to be around make thunderstorms possible, but wind shear appears to be the limiting factor for severe weather. A low level jet moves into the area on Saturday ahead of a cold front, which may increase the severe weather chance, but cold pool strength and cell interactions will probably be the main factor in creating severe weather as opposed to normal shear-induced organization. Another trough comes through Tuesday of next week and a low level jet is around the area to potential provide organization, but again shear magnitude appears weak. Timing of the FROPA and state of the warm sector also still need more agreement.

High pressure looks to keep the area dry Sunday and potentially Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 626 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Winds will become light and variable after sunset tonight and be nearly calm during the day Thursday. With a stagnant air pattern, confidence is increasing that near surface smoke from Canadian wildfires will overspread the area from south to north on Thursday morning. Visible satellite imagery has shown an expansive, thick smoke plume gradually move south from the UP of Michigan through the Upper Lower Peninsula today. Smoke may arrive to KSBN prior to daybreak and should be at KFWA by 12Z tomorrow morning. Near surface smoke is expected to reduce visibilities, but how low they will get is still uncertain.
Surface observations across Upper Lower Michigan have been as low as 1/2 mile today. Started with prevailing 3 miles in the TAFS for now, but subsequent shifts may need to adjust visibilities lower based on observations trends and confidence.



IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104- 116-203-204-216.
Air Quality Alert from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Thursday night for INZ005>009- 012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-104-116-204-216.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for INZ013-015- 020-022>027-032>034.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ020.
Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT Thursday night for INZ103- 203.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025.
Air Quality Alert from 7 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ078>081-177- 277.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.